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New and Experienced Climbers over 50 #34
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Only 4 times in modern market history has the S&P 500 dropped >10% in two days: The first 3 on the list all led to bear markets. |
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All - Thanks for the comments on leading with someone else's rack. I led p1 and p2 of Betty (5.3) today. Obligatory pic of Bill from the p2 anchors -  Looks like the S&P 500 is back to where it was a year ago |
M Sprague wrote: March 2020 led to bull market by April 2020. Barely a month to recover. Sept 2008 resolved by March 2009. Bull market for 11 years after a couple year recession? Yearly return for S&P in 2009 was over 23%. Oct 1987. In three months, we entered a nearly 13 year run of a bull market. Did not lead to recession. Anyhow...weather the storm. Buy the dip if you can and have dry powder and some risk tolerance (and can afford a setback if things don't go well). Interesting times...I like looking at macro trends type data for planning for surviving a dip. And the constant reminder to be less equity heavy. |
Lori Milas wrote: Hey Lori, you can't use a single charger with multiple adapters? I didn't understand what you meant by "different method" here. So far as I understand you, you need to keep these devices charged:
Is that right? Highest priority must be the pump and your phone, so you definitely want a backup battery for both of those. If they use some kind of USB charging, you can probably plug them into a multi-port battery using a USB splitter cable, something like this https://www.amazon.com/Minlu-Retractable-Charger-Charging-Adapter/dp/B08596XGMW/ And don't forget to bring a backup cable in case one of your cables breaks. A battery doesn't help if you cannot connect it. Do you have a "battery bank" / portable charger? It should have an indicator to say how much power is left. Then you can wander around a bit and see how long it takes for your battery to get to say 50%. |
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Was able to get out and lead some more sport on the West Point Wall today. Such great times and feeling better and better on the sharp end again after 1.5 years off of leading. I'm going to put in for two Wednesdays off of work in May and try to get to the Gunks (weather depending) on those days to do some of the easy classics. If any of you would be available for a mid-week day in May, please reach out and I'll set up my leave and I would love to share a rope with you. I'm happy to lead .4's and down and I am happy to follow up to .8's the first time out. I've been climbing since 1986 and have my current WFRer (and M.D.), did the SPI course a few years ago with Doug Ferguson, and will, if nothing else, make sure to give you a safe belay either while you lead or follow me! I have a full rack and ropes, gear, etc. My cell is 7-one-9, 5-zero-8, 0-seven-0-six! |
Brian in SLC wrote: I don't enjoy being ' Debbie Downer', but Ward and Brian, while it is nice that you have disposable income and a 'cushion', to enable you to 'play' the stock market, and potentially be able to hang on for the long run, it is important to recognize that very many people, very likely including some on here, don't have that luxury and are already having trouble making ends meet, and those who are already retired are seeing their 401Ks or other retirement plans, on which they are currently dependent, disintegrating in real time. Given that reality, maybe it would be best for you to be discreet. |
dragons wrote: Thank you so much dragons! This is really sweet of you to try to help me figure this out. You’re pretty on point there except the tandem pump. For some reason it requires this exclusive charging station. The only thing I can think of is just to purchase another one of these that will charge using a backup battery. The pump can drain surprisingly quickly so if it’s not completely charged when leave the house I could possibly have a dead pump within an hour.  Also, the GoPro drains its charge in one or two hours, so I need a special charger for that or a backpack full of backup batteries. This is obviously not a critical device to have but I’d like to figure it out.  I’ve also been stalling on buying a second iPhone, but I see no other way to work around it. My phone just doesn’t have the capacity to run everything at once and if I wanted to take a picture or listen to music, I’m SOL. So actually, I’m going to have to figure out how to keep two phones on me at all times and keep them both charged. I’m trying to adjust my attitude about this because honestly this is the farthest thing from carefree. But it does save a life. In the alternative I could go back to shots and manual testing of blood sugar… it’s doable but just much more prone to error. —- It sounds like everyone here is trying to be a good sport about Trump taking a wrecking ball to the economy and alienating us from virtually every other country. I think this energizes him but today I just couldn’t hold back my rage. So we went to the Cahuilla native American cultural center to wander around and learn. It’s such a beautiful place and so full of native history. https://www.accmuseum.org/ I’ll bet Phylp has been there? Once again, I wonder what our Cahuilla brethren ate. With our abundance of pinyon and acorns what were their meals like? They had and we have incredible mineral waters and fresh aquifers. They traded for coffee. They grew blue corn. They cooked some parts of Mesquite. I haven’t found a local class yet, but I did find this great cookbook.  I’ll bet if I’m persistent I can find locals who have learned their dietary heritage. I even think there is some kind of restaurant not far away that uses only native resources for its dining.  From years of studying Ayurveda , I have a deep belief in eating what is grown locally and ancestrally. PS. Alan, I can’t watch. I have not returned the phone calls from my Financial Advisor. I am continually switching off the news. My stomach is in my throat. But I guess not to worry. Trump’s playing golf. |
Alan Rubin wrote: Yah, I agree, I hesitated to chime in. I also think about the people who are quite scared and feeling the impact right now. If you just retired recently (and maybe had no choice but to "retire"), it seems extremely scary unless you have plenty to spare. |
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this kind of shit always hurts us in construction. people flat out cancel their projects when their stocks go down. we lost a job in January right after the election because of trump insecurity. people don't want to take a chance in uncertain times. hardship is real. I escaped it for a bit this afternoon. Got Kermit out of the barn and mostly cleaned and ready to go. fridge and solar system working well.  Insanely windy up there. It was 37f in the parking lot but the wind was strong enough that new ice was forming. the gusts made bouldering interesting.      I was lucky and the snow was firm enough to support my weight on the ridge hike to table rock  If you look carefully at the road down there on the right you can see Kermit the van.  a wild exposed spot to be in hard gusty wind.  I was pretty chilled when I got to the camper and glad to be able to change and brew up a hot co co. naturally I spilled half of it in my lap while driving. |
Brian in SLC wrote: Besides Alan's excellent post about the severity of the consequences for some Americans there is a big difference this time. Specifically the people in charge of dealing with them were not sociopathic morons. |
Ward Smith wrote: An old Romanian fortune teller told me I would be working until the day I died. So, did I tell everyone here that I’m working in the Bay Area at a FAANG company surrounded by kids in their mid-20s launching a new career in my 60s in a land where old people don’t exist? The amount of pressure working in this fast paced environment is likely to kill me, and that old fortune teller is probably cackling at me for scoffing at her prediction she had made many decades ago.
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Alan Rubin wrote: Ward and Brian, How is it you can post on a thread occupied by a lot of people on fixed incomes who are watching their net worth take a hit that they may not have time to recover from, and you are gloating about the buying opportunities it affords you? Why not show some consideration for your “so called” friends on this thread and take your little discussion somewhere it is appreciated. But hey, I recently sold a couple high flyers maybe you all should pick em up, amazon and intuitive surgical. Both of them made me a shitload, but had I held them I would only be down like 18 grand in the last two days and maybe 25 grand in the last thirty days. So nothing to worry about, I am sure if you pick them up tomorrow there’s no downside risk. And Brian, Sept 2008 resolved by March 2009. I think if you asked a lot of small investors instead of quoting some ai garbage you would find it took most of us years to get back in the black. But maybe we just don’t know how to pick the winners like a couple of wizards like you and Ward. If you guys do not know it already, I hate to be the one to break it to you, but years of accumulated wealth can be erased in a few short days, and usually when it happens it takes years to get it back. Just because the falling has stopped does not mean you are instantly made whole, it just means that you hit the bottom. Consequently, you may want to revise the recovery time for all of the events you cited and give serious thought to how long it will take to recover from this completely unnecessary, unprecedented and self-inflicted crash.
But if you think the bottom is in buy away. |
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‘Gloating’? I’m sure I’m in the same situation as many (most) in this thread (country), but I sure didn’t interpret any of these comments as ‘gloating’. Rather than training fire on those who are likely very much in your circle, these criticisms would be far better directed towards those who have created this chaos. |
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I apologize if I offended anybody. Not my intention. Definitely not gloating as I have taken quite a hit myself. But if this kind of a drop (and maybe more to come) causes panic then you should absolutely not be in the market, but 100% in fixed income investments. |
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Hot take- if you are getting your investment advice on MP, you might be better off just keeping your savings under your mattress |
Mark E Dixon wrote: Not necessarily. There are plenty of smart people who are experienced and may even be trained in the field specifically here on MP. Obviously take everything with a grain of salt and make your own decisions ultimately. I don't think Ward was gloating, nor is he oblivious at all to the hardship many are and will be going through. Scaling in some quality buys at major technical supports during a market crash if you have available resources is tried and true good investment practice. Personally, I think this may be deeper and longer lasting than many are expecting as we are seriously burning bridges with the rest of the world and doing great destruction to the post WW2 international systems that allowed the US to accumulate so much wealth (unfortunately consolidated in the last 4 decades far too much in the 1%) That is different than those previous bear markets I listed. Another is the overt distain for the rule of law and stability. If Congress can get their shit together and take back the powers that they are supposed to exercise, than the destruction could be curtailed and we could start to rebuild relations, but I am rather dubious of that happening with the current crop. That is why it is so important that people make the effort to let our politicians know we won't stand for their malfeasance and that we find honorable ones with heathy brains to replace them. |
M Sprague wrote: I don't disagree with any of what you say. However, those most in need of investment advice are probably the least likely to be able to sort out which random poster is in fact offering sound advice. Sadly, the same is true for training advice on MP, medical questions (esp wrt supplements), political insights, and so on. |
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I need a newer work vehicle and my guess is there will be lots of used cars that people can't afford popping up soon. My market advice for the day. Do any of you guys follow the FB page Gray Power 50+? That dude who downclimbed into the same waterfall over and over, upside down sometimes even, finally met his maker... his videos seemed on the verge of being suicidal and I had to block him |
Ward Smith wrote: Not at all. I took it as light humour when we’ve all been put into a horrible situation.
The market could crash too. That’s why many professional investors are pulling out of the market. Be careful investing, everyone. |
M Sprague wrote: I'll now exponentially compound my 'Debbie Downer' prognostications. This entire tariff 'regime', along with it's many other major downsides, is ( intentionally, I'm sure) a perfect set-up for massive corruption ( especially with the 'I'm open to negotiations' subtext). Of course, thanks to SCOTUS, Trump now knows that he will be immune from prosecution ( these are, of course, 'official acts' of the Presidency)---not that his appointees such as Patel and Bondi would ever investigate or prosecute him, nor this Congress ever impeach him, and everyone knows that he will preemptively pardon all his cronies. And, as the protests to the impacts of his policies mount, he ( and Patel, Bondi, and their minions), will just be looking for any excuse to deem them violent and launch a full-on crack down against any form of dissent--we've already seen people legally in the US swept off the streets by masked Feds--it won't be long before the same happens to citizens. Sorry to be so bleak, but..... |
