Predictions: 15c in US?

Fair enough guys. I’ve got no skin in the game.

I wonder though, is the future a V9 on a treadwall, repeating itself until you puke? Maybe Zwift can get into the game.

Go Back to Super Topo wrote:

I think both my points went well over your head….

Would u articulate them more clearly for a dum dum then? I'm fr intrigued by ur take on this

This sounds like the worst possible future for climbing I could ever conceive of….

I think it would be awesome and the most pure creative outlet in climbing... but either way it has 0% effect on any of the climbing you and I will ever do. Or any but about 30 climbers.

The vast number of ?marble? Mines in Sicily makes me think chipping a 5.15 would offend no one.

Is it bone tomahawk that has a bomber jug in the middle? Find a fracture line and just drill off the jugs in a chossy cave. I can absolutely see places like the fortress of solitude, hurricave, getting 5.15s chipped into them.

Princess Puppy Lovr wrote:

The vast number of ?marble? Mines in Sicily makes me think chipping a 5.15 would offend no one.

Is it bone tomahawk that has a bomber jug in the middle? Find a fracture line and just drill off the jugs in a chossy cave. I can absolutely see places like the fortress of solitude, hurricave, getting 5.15s chipped into them.

Rock modification to make a new route harder, rather than easier, is a fairly common development practice at  hard/chossy sport crags (Rifle, etc). You just call it "cleaning" rather than "chipping", so no one gets upset. But often the reason that jug got hammered off wasn't because it was loose, but rather because the developer wanted a harder and more sustained route, so the jug rest had to go. 

And I have no complaints about this. The routes produced are generally excellent, sustained endurance routes.

----

Regarding the Seb Bouin mega-pitches: I think the long super endurance pitches are neat, as one way the sport advances. But it isn't the only way. There are also top end routes that are shorter with hard moves. Perfecto Mundo is a normal length power endurance sport climb. Ondra's 5.15s in Czech are all pretty short. Stefano's Excalibur project (15c?) is barely longer than a boulder problem. It's cool that the sport is advancing with top end routes of varying lengths, angles, and rock types.

Not to mention the impressive advancement in bouldering that last few years. If you just care about hard moves, that's where to look.

Daniel Chode Rider wrote:

Would u articulate them more clearly for a dum dum then? I'm fr intrigued by ur take on this

I doubt you're actually intrigued, however I'm bored so:

• Point 1: Drew Ruana is not the only person to out climb Smith. People tend to forget about Ryan Palo cause he's somewhat irrelevant in the hard climbing game these days, and Ondra onsighting 5.14 is hardly noteworthy anymore. I was not comparing as you alluded to, but rather implying show respect where respect is due by including others' accomplishments on par with Drew's
• Point 2: The only reason to chip a 5.15c would be because you are too weak to climb an existing one, therefore one would have to "create" one. The vast majority of altered climbs/accepted way that routes are manufactured is to make them easier or possible.....not to make them harder (i.e. drilling a pocket amidst a 8ft blank section).

I think it would be awesome and the most pure creative outlet in climbing...

That's one way to look at it. I'm of the opinion of we have gyms for that where creativity is not limited. You make a mistake at the gym and you can fix it by moving a hold. The same cannot be said outside. Beside you really think that drilling pockets with the intent of filling them with glue would ever catch on, especially among the elite?

but either way it has 0% effect on any of the climbing you and I will ever do. Or any but about 30 climbers.

0% direct effect perhaps...but we have seen time and time again how chipping/manufacturing can effect the masses. Ten Sleep is only the most recent example of this. Fortunately, I highly doubt we will ever see the day that the vast majority of climbers and land owners are ok with climbers drilling and chipping climbs with the intent of adding further enhancements like glue for the sole purpose of progressing grades, like you mention.

Go Back to Super Topo wrote:

interesting you climbed the most manufactured climb I know of…

JCM wrote:

I've heard mention of that route left of Scarface. What's the story there? Has anyone tried it seriously?

Not sure if anyone responded to this yet didn’t sift through the 7 full pages but there are unfinished projects by Drew and also Ondra stated there are 5.15’s potentially at Smith Rock. Also that a specific wall in either Christian Brothers or Dihedrals that could be 5.16. 

Not Not MP Admin wrote:

Is this the first cave up high on the right side of the canyon as your driving in? 

Yes.

Ryan Wood wrote:

Not sure if anyone responded to this yet didn’t sift through the 7 full pages but there are unfinished projects by Drew and also Ondra stated there are 5.15’s potentially at Smith Rock. Also that a specific wall in either Christian Brothers or Dihedrals that could be 5.16. 

Regarding the route left of Scarface, Drew recently posted this on Reddit:

"I tried it once right after I did assassin. To be fair I was only 16 then but I think I did maybe 3 moves total in the first 40 feet then I gave up. I had done v14 at the time and it felt like linking between bolts (I wanna say there’s 12-15 on it?) was at the low end v12 for every bolt to bolt. I don’t know if it goes, even the first half of it could be like 15c on its own. It’d be interesting to try it now but yeah I can’t see it being easier than 15d in all honesty"

And "smith isn’t usually that steep but this rig is ~25-30° overhung which is basically a roof there haha. It still has the nasty tic tacky climbing on micro crimps but if it was vert it’d still be 5.14 probably"

https://www.reddit.com/r/climbing/comments/yl92kd/comment/iuxq0np/

Kevin Bradford wrote:

I think you are mistaken, jumbo love was originally sent in 3 pitches by randy leaving at 7c/+, 8c+ and 8b, respectively. The direct start replaces 7c ish climbing with a 9a, thereby adding harder sequences than you find in the middle section. Also, I agree that climbing it in one pitch is less contrived than hanging belays.

https://hardclimbs.info/climbs/jumbo-love/

Just a quick note – while Randy Leavitt did bolt Jumbo Love as a three pitch climb, I don't believe he ever sent the individual pitches. The first pitch of the original Jumbo Love is shared with Jumbo Pumping Hate 5.14a (climbs left after the first pitch), which Randy did FA as a three pitch climb. Most of Clark Mountain was bolted by Randy in the mid 90s and Sharma didn't come along to do Jumbo Love until 10+ years later, so Randy's bolting vision was fairly futuristic.

From what I understand the direct start project that Seb has now sent was originally bolted by Sharma because he thought the first 5.12d pitch with a no hands rest was going to be too easy for the start of Jumbo Love. However, after trying Jumbo Love, Sharma never put serious effort into the direct once he realized how hard Jumbo Love was even with the regular start. I don't think anybody had put serious effort into the direct first pitch, even as just a single pitch, until Seb came and made the FA of the direct first pitch and the full line. At least this is how I understand the history of the lines!

Edit:

I just went and referenced my guidebooks. The guide for Clark Mountain released in 2001 and written by Randy Leavitt himself does in fact list this direct start as a project at that time, so not bolted by Sharma as I had thought. Randy lists what is now Jumbo Love under the project title "Republic of Hate", so at least in 2001 it had not been sent by him (even split into pitches). So Randy Leavitt had the vision in ~1995 to bolt all the parts of what has just become the first 5.15c in the US. Pretty neat!

highaltitudeflatulentexpulsion wrote:

Proud, hard, epic. Sure. But is skipping belays on a 3 pitch route really the pinnacle of performance?

Eliminating hanging belays is always a worthy goal and an large improvement in style. In a similar vein, have the people who stop and belay in the middle of the Salathe Headwall while on a "free" ascent of El Cap really free-climbed the thing?

So new predictions.... where will be the first 15d in the US?

A much harder question to answer and requires more imagination. The next 15c, my bet is on the Coleman project-extension in the celebrity cave. Or a mega-line going straight out the entire hurricave (current hardest lines cover in their entirety maybe 1/6 of the terrain?) 3 mile hike caves in wyoming/utah/Nevada? Secret limestone caves near Ely? (What's the story on that anyway...) Big Bone in the fynn cave? Will anyone capable ever seriously try the project-left-of-scarface? 

But which crag has had 5.15s established that ARENT the hardest king line of th cave? Because that is where the 15+s will appear....

Dylan Colon wrote:

Eliminating hanging belays is always a worthy goal and an large improvement in style. In a similar vein, have the people who stop and belay in the middle of the Salathe Headwall while on a "free" ascent of El Cap really free-climbed the thing?

I’ve been Skinnerered!!!

I actually fully agree with the sentiment of skipping belays, especially hanging belays to improve style. What were the pitches on the headwall for thr

My philosophy has been a bit more nuanced. In practical terms, a rope is 60 to 70 meters long, and funny thing is, when we say silly thing like “that rig is a rope stretcher” we’ve probably climbed 140-170’ (~50m). I don’t make these things up, just what I’ve observed.

So there almost has to be a point, is it 50m or is it 80, where we stop and scratch our head. Or at least accept that it was a pretty cool idea but not really an improvement on anything.

I did Wunches as a single mega pitch. As I recall, that was super fun.

Princess Puppy Lovr wrote:

interesting you climbed the most manufactured climb I know of…

That’s not saying much, for a multitude of reasons, but I’ve done a number of manufactured routes. What’s your point?

I would venture a guess that whatever route you’re referring to wasn’t put up in the last two (or probably even three) decades. I suppose I could be wrong as you conveniently chose to exclude the route name in whatever point you’re attempting to make.

Daniel Chode Rider wrote:

So new predictions.... where will be the first 15d in the US?

A much harder question to answer and requires more imagination. The next 15c, my bet is on the Coleman project-extension in the celebrity cave. Or a mega-line going straight out the entire hurricave (current hardest lines cover in their entirety maybe 1/6 of the terrain?) 3 mile hike caves in wyoming/utah/Nevada? Secret limestone caves near Ely? (What's the story on that anyway...) Big Bone in the fynn cave? Will anyone capable ever seriously try the project-left-of-scarface? 

But which crag has had 5.15s established that ARENT the hardest king line of th cave? Because that is where the 15+s will appear....

My prediction: unlike our first 15c, our first 15d will not be a king line. Rather, it will be a contrived boulder-route linkup hybrid in the Nomad Cave.

JCM wrote:

My prediction: unlike our first 15c, our first 15d will not be a king line. Rather, it will be a contrived boulder-route linkup hybrid in the Nomad Cave.

I wouldn’t be surprised. Probably a little disappointed but not sad. My guess is that it will be something on the obscure end of things in a lesser trafficked area (much like Jumbo Love or Fotress). Almost certainly done by an international climber.

Dark Horse prediction: Steezy Bailey in Utah doing an unfinished Kinder route

JCM wrote:

Regarding the route left of Scarface, Drew recently posted this on Reddit:

"I tried it once right after I did assassin. To be fair I was only 16 then but I think I did maybe 3 moves total in the first 40 feet then I gave up. I had done v14 at the time and it felt like linking between bolts (I wanna say there’s 12-15 on it?) was at the low end v12 for every bolt to bolt. I don’t know if it goes, even the first half of it could be like 15c on its own. It’d be interesting to try it now but yeah I can’t see it being easier than 15d in all honesty"

And "smith isn’t usually that steep but this rig is ~25-30° overhung which is basically a roof there haha. It still has the nasty tic tacky climbing on micro crimps but if it was vert it’d still be 5.14 probably"

https://www.reddit.com/r/climbing/comments/yl92kd/comment/iuxq0np/

Thanks JCM, this is what I was recalling. Didn’t Ondra make mention this could be 5.16? I believe he did also, or he may have been talking about a different wall.

Additionally, Picnic Linch Wall has some areas that are either unclimbable or 5.FuckingHard.

Not saying Smith Rock will have the first in the USA of the grades mentioned here but it seems to be confirmed that it could host those numbers at some point.

I’ll likely never climb anything of note here but still fun to think about…

Eh. I’m also a little dissatisfied that the first 15c is an endurance route requiring a nonstandard length of rope. Same with Jumbo Love OG. How hard is Freerider if you link the whole thing? Might be our first 5.16.

Yoda Jedi Knight wrote:

Eh. I’m also a little dissatisfied that the first 15c is an endurance route requiring a nonstandard length of rope. Same with Jumbo Love OG. How hard is Freerider if you link the whole thing? Might be our first 5.16.

Ha, you mean like Handhold did? Way too many no hands rests.

Strings Attached wrote:

Looks like a steel rod from the pelvis to the shoulder. Either it's the shadow or he has some special workouts for 5.15's. 

I would like to see Megos give it a shot.

Any video of Mike on this?

Megos did try it. I think he came for 3 days. Repeated the hard established stuff, attempted the project a few times, then left. That's it.