Mountain Project Logo

Predictions: 15c in US?

Original Post
JCM · · Unknown Hometown · Joined Jun 2008 · Points: 115

5.15a is becoming reasonably a reasonably established grade in the US, and 15b is starting to fill in also. When do you predict we'll see the next step, with a US 15c? Who will do it? And where will it be?

Alex Holmann · · Seattle, WA · Joined Jan 2019 · Points: 113

I imagine 15c in the US won’t happen for a while. Siegrist has a project in the fins that sounds like it is probably 15b so I would imagine somebody would do that first

Daniel Chode Rider · · Truck, Wenatchee · Joined Sep 2020 · Points: 7,484

I read an article that said the Fortress of Solitude is the big potential for 5.15 in the US, it's just inconvenient, chossy, bad conditions, etc. But if Flex Luther is getting a repeat maybe more attention will be drawn that direction. Who knows is there's 15c potential there, or the talent to take advantage of it.

Adam bloc · · San Golderino, Calirado · Joined Dec 2012 · Points: 3,189

If we annex the Bow Valley then yes

Daniel Chode Rider · · Truck, Wenatchee · Joined Sep 2020 · Points: 7,484

https://www.climbing.com/places/crag-of-the-future/

The article. If Luthor is really 15b that means it was the first of the grade in the US, 7 years before Jumbo Love

Daniel Chode Rider · · Truck, Wenatchee · Joined Sep 2020 · Points: 7,484

Oh is that what happened lol

Did I like not read the article

Princess Puppy Lovr · · Rent-n, WA · Joined Jun 2018 · Points: 1,756

As a lover of choss the one downside is that flex Luther and most mega classics is that they are absolute piles. The one upside to that Tahoe route is it hopefully won’t break.

 Logistically it’s gotta be in Utah. It is the place that has 5.15 opportunity, 5.15 climbers travel for the world cups/other comps, all the best climbers train there, you can be more precise with conditions, and it’s logistically convenient. The red, smith, rifle, new, are not convenient. Maybe something in Vegas.

I think drew ruana has the best shot. Or Sean Bailey. Siegriest, D woods and other Americans will start falling off. Euros are not gonna fly across the world to then travel somewhere remote to do a climb no one has done.

Steven Sutin · · Vancouver, BC · Joined Apr 2019 · Points: 50

Imagine climbing the hardest boulder in the world only for people on Mountain Project to decide that you're washed up

Alex Fischer · · Albuquerque, NM · Joined Jun 2018 · Points: 813

The Bill Clinton Project at Waimea at Rumney would probably be 5.15 b or c if someone could send it. It's right next to a 5.15a and several 5.14+'s so there is a reason for crushers to be there at least.

Jordan Wilson · · Unknown Hometown · Joined Dec 2017 · Points: 65

Probably could've had one by now if they weren't addicted to manufacturing holds in the 90s.

Strings Attached · · Unknown Hometown · Joined Aug 2021 · Points: 0
Alex Fischer wrote:

The Bill Clinton Project at Waimea at Rumney would probably be 5.15 b or c 

.... picture from the link

Looks like a steel rod from the pelvis to the shoulder. Either it's the shadow or he has some special workouts for 5.15's. 

I would like to see Megos give it a shot.

Any video of Mike on this?

Princess Puppy Lovr · · Rent-n, WA · Joined Jun 2018 · Points: 1,756
Steven Sutin wrote:

Imagine climbing the hardest boulder in the world only for people on Mountain Project to decide that you're washed up

Right! It is more that I feel like D woods needs to send another 15b or a 15c before he were to establish a 5.15c. He doesn't really seem like he goes out and bolts stuff. So timing wise I feel like he would be 3 years out from trying a 15c in America, there is all that sick wine he would be missing out on in Europe. Siegrest is 36.

Not Not MP Admin · · The OASIS · Joined Nov 2018 · Points: 17
Princess Puppy Lovr wrote:

As a lover of choss the one downside is that flex Luther and most mega classics is that they are absolute piles. The one upside to that Tahoe route is it hopefully won’t break.

 Logistically it’s gotta be in Utah. It is the place that has 5.15 opportunity, 5.15 climbers travel for the world cups/other comps, all the best climbers train there, you can be more precise with conditions, and it’s logistically convenient. The red, smith, rifle, new, are not convenient. Maybe something in Vegas.

I think drew ruana has the best shot. Or Sean Bailey. Siegriest, D woods and other Americans will start falling off. Euros are not gonna fly across the world to then travel somewhere remote to do a climb no one has done.

In my experience most “mega classics” are such due to either rock quality, aesthetics, or movement. Any that I’ve done that I would call a “pile” are usually due to overtraffic or are at choss crags and (in turn) aren’t actually “mega classics” but rather just area classics. I suppose it’s entirely subjective though so it’s all a moot point. 

As far as who does it first, I think I agree with you that an American will most likely do it first, but for a different reason perhaps. I just don’t see any Euro’s coming over and developing a route that will take a significant amount of time to send. That could easily change if an American opens up an actual “mega classic” though.


My bet is on J-Star or Kinder (dark horse, I know) as they are the most prevalent ones opening up and developing hard sport climbs stateside. The younger strong kids just don’t seem to be developing routes like the older generation does (or used to).

JCM · · Unknown Hometown · Joined Jun 2008 · Points: 115
Not Not MP Admin wrote:

My bet is on J-Star or Kinder (dark horse, I know) as they are the most prevalent ones opening up and developing hard sport climbs stateside. The younger strong kids just don’t seem to be developing routes like the older generation does (or used to).

I don't see much/any chance of Kinder levelling up to send a 15c at this point. That's just too big a jump at his age from his current level. He is a prolific developer though, and lives in a location (St. George) with high potential for hard sport climbs. A reasonably possible scenario is that Kinder finds and bolts a 15c route, realizes it's difficulty, and opens it up to the next generation to try. Then someone like Sean Bailey gets the send. A scenario much like Randy Leavitt bolting Jumbo Love, or Boone Speed bolting Necessary Evil, and the sends going to Sharma.

I could see Siegrist pulling it off though. He's well established at 15b now, and seems to still be getting better, so levelling up on last letter grade to 15c seems plausible. He's also got some very hard projects bolted close to home in Vegas, so the opportunity is there too. Such as the straight-up direct finish to Nu World. The one issue I see is that even if he sends a possible 15c, he may be too modest to propose the grade, and end up calling it 15b or 15b/c. Then it'll take 18 years to get repeated, then get upgraded, and everyone will be confused about the timeline of what was the first 15c.

JCM · · Unknown Hometown · Joined Jun 2008 · Points: 115
J T wrote:

While I agree overall (this is why I said he’s my dark house) he sent multiple 15b’s in the last couple of weeks, and has sent/developed just as many 15b’s as any other American except maybe Sharma. I still think he stands as good chance of a chance as any for at least opening up the first 15c in the states. The Randy Leavitt and Boone Speed examples are good examples of what most likely will occur though Lol 

That's not accurate. Kinder has done many 14d's, one 14d/15a (Bone Tomahawk), a route initially proposed at 15a but later downgraded to 14d (Life of Villains) and as of this fall a new route proposed at 15a (Kinder Cakes). No 15b's to his name.

Kinder has made major contributions to American sport climbing, but mainly at the 14+ level (and now crossing into the 15a level). Sending 15c would be a huge jump. Bolting one, though, is reasonably likely.

I do expect we'll see Kinder continue to fill out the 14d and 15a grades on SW limestone for a while longer.

Not Not MP Admin · · The OASIS · Joined Nov 2018 · Points: 17
JCM wrote:

That's not accurate. Kinder has done many 14d's, one 14d/15a (Bone Tomahawk), a route initially proposed at 15a but later downgraded to 14d (Life of Villains) and as of this fall a new route proposed at 15a (Kinder Cakes). No 15b's to his name.

Kinder has made major contributions to American sport climbing, but mainly at the 14+ level (and now crossing into the 15a level). Sending 15c would be a huge jump. Bolting one, though, is reasonably likely.

Then yeah, he’s screwed. Nobody has mentioned Matty Hong yet either which is surprising 

Jordan Wilson · · Unknown Hometown · Joined Dec 2017 · Points: 65
J T wrote:

I'd guess you get a 15c out of Rumney, South West Limestone, or some rando place like Leslie Gulch. 

Princess Puppy Lovr · · Rent-n, WA · Joined Jun 2018 · Points: 1,756
Not Not MP Admin wrote:

In my experience most “mega classics” are such due to either rock quality, aesthetics, or movement. Any that I’ve done that I would call a “pile” are usually due to overtraffic or are at choss crags and (in turn) aren’t actually “mega classics” but rather just area classics. I suppose it’s entirely subjective though so it’s all a moot point. 

I was more referring to hard sport climbing off the top of my head notable climbs to have holds break Open Your Mind Direct had a hold break and now is consensus 14d, Jaws II in Rumney had the most important hold break and now 15a, Flex Luthor as stated before. Many of the hardest sport climbs are in areas that often require significant cleaning hurcave, hellcave, the red (read new route descriptions people often complain about the "death choss", smith has swaths of glued on holds. The harder I have climbed the more glue I have noticed over time. Maybe for a plebian rock quality is important but most hard climbing areas I don't think of for having exceptional rock quality is common. 

JCM that what I was think, Kinder/Siegriest bolt it and Sean/Drew send it. 

JCM · · Unknown Hometown · Joined Jun 2008 · Points: 115

I think I accidentally locked the thread earlier today. Sorry to anyone who tried to post! Thread is open again now.

Anyway, article from Climbing regarding Matty Hong on Flex Luthor indicates that he sees lots more potential at the Fortress for new hard projects. Matty's now climbed 2 15b's and a bunch of routes 14d-15a, so he's got the resume to be another contender to put up the first US 15c. 

https://www.climbing.com/news/matty-hong-sends-tommy-caldwells-flex-luther-upgrades-to-5-15b/?utm_campaign=later-linkinbio-climbingmagazine&utm_content=later-21516590&utm_medium=social&utm_source=linkin.bio

-----

From this thread so far, a list of currently known/speculated projects:

- Bill Clinton project at Rumney (15b or c?)

- Direct finish to Nu World (15c?)

- Other Siegrist projects at 5G

- I've heard rumor there's a much harder direct start into Jumbo Love, increasing the grade notably.

- Siegrist's Fins project (15b?)

--

And locations with potential:

- Possible new routes at the Fortress?

- Whatever Joe Kinder is bolting in St George

- Any known hard projects at the Red or New? Pure Imagination direct start is rumored to be one.

Tal M · · Denver, CO · Joined Dec 2018 · Points: 4,322

Isn't there a rumor that there may be a 5.15 in the works at Wall of the 90s in CCC? I imagine it would likely be more like 14d/15a based on the rest of the crag but you never know.

Not Not MP Admin · · The OASIS · Joined Nov 2018 · Points: 17
JCM wrote:

- Any known hard projects at the Red or New? Pure Imagination direct start is rumored to be one.

I would find it hard to believe any routes in the RRG get a 15c anytime soon unless it turns into a super route like jumbo love. While there are climbs there that could possibly be in the mid 15 range, I don’t think there is enough in the surrounding area to make someone want to come and work a 15c with no other climbs nearby to also work. Any climber who is capable of climbing 15c would smash through every other hard climb there fairly quickly I would suspect. Ondra immediately downgrading SS direct is a good example of this. 

I think there could be more potential at the new since the rock there is as bullet as anywhere and has a few projects that could be in that range (it’s been a while but has the movie screen project seen an ascent yet?) unfortunately I think the weather makes it less appealing than other destinations so I wouldn’t expect the NRG to host 

Not saying either place doesn’t have the potential, I just don’t think either destination will draw in a suitor to come and work a route in that range. 

Guideline #1: Don't be a jerk.

General Climbing
Post a Reply to "Predictions: 15c in US?"

Log In to Reply
Welcome

Join the Community! It's FREE

Already have an account? Login to close this notice.