Why are climbers arguing about this?

FrankPS wrote: Yep, the definition of "overwhelmed" is subjective. And there probably are some that meet the nebulous definition. And being prepared is a good thing. Anything I left out?

Edit: Don't a lot of nurses normally work 12-hour shifts in a hospital?

I did say 12+ and they are talking about 16 hour shifts in some cases.  I can't say how typical that is, but it's been what is being reported in the media by the workers themselves.
And if you can help it, you don't do 12+ hours in an ICU without breaks.  Being run down isn't good for the immune system or for attention to care.

I can't say what is what for sure, and New York is not tracking the stats, but  in Ohio where they have, at least 16% of Covid cases involved health care workers. In Minnesota it was 28% at last count.
I'd say that this is a problem... and probably in part due to the hospitals being overwhelmed... or at least their staff is.

"As the virus approached, the hospital’s leadership began building, staffing and equipping the equivalent of a second hospital on the fly, inside and outside its walls. Maimonides’s official capacity is 711 beds. In a week or two, officials intend to have 1,400.
An enormous tent outside the hospital’s front lobby will hold 80 to 100 beds. There are beds in a rehab gym. The number of beds in an older, smaller cardiothoracic ICU were more than doubled.
Like most major medical centers, Maimonides had separate intensive care floors for heart patients, children and others. But in effect, they are all covid-19 ICUs now. Nearly everyone else has been discharged to make room for coronavirus patients — sent to a rehab facility, perhaps, or home. Or told not to come in. Few people with complaints other than covid-19 are even bothering to show up at the hospital.
(...)
Staff members have been repurposed. On Wednesday, a urologist, a trauma surgeon and a surgical oncologist were among the physicians working on Tower 8. With elective surgeries canceled, orthopedists are pitching in elsewhere. They are all covid-19 doctors now."

Link: Overwhelmed Hospitals

I'm not trying to be argumentative and I didn't take it that you are either.  I'm just trying to present data behind why I said what I did.

A few points
* It's a mistake to not worry about getting infected because you are young. There is emerging data suggesting the kill mechanism at work with this virus isn't in pneumonia or cytokine storms, it's an attack on hemoglobin releasing iron ions out of the plateletswhich causes the organs to get starved of O2 causing failure. And the iron ions in the blood damage the lungs too. Ventilators are causing a lot of damage with ulcers and really are only a palliative measure.
* I've seen reports from accredited sources mentioning recurrences after recovery. The recurrences are turning out to be far more deadly too.
* The comparison to annual flu deaths is invalid. The death rate will quickly overtake that number if it hasn't already today.
* Suicides and poverty deaths from the economic fallout here is going to dwarf the epidemic. Be prepared for that.
* When the economic crash really sets in, there is going to be a holocaust of unwanted pets. Be prepared for that too.

One thing that bugs the shit out me though is that Red Blue narrative battle seeping into this. Don't go out looking for data or opinions and narrative that'll support your 'side', try to look objectively at how things are unfolding.

Brent Kelly wrote:

Hey Marc, can you link us to the source of the underlying data?

That was the source of the table. As far as underlying raw data????

Just curious to explore. I think you make a good point that this *affects* young and middle aged as well as the elderly, but I also think others have a point in calling out that so far as we are curently aware, recovery from infection is possible without tremendous impact on immediate health (e.g. asymptomatic carriers are a substantial population), and so there is an important distinctiom between *case* rates, and *hospitalizations*, which are obviously more severe and alarming.

Without a doubt. Then there's mortality rate vs case fatality rate and other variables. I was just trying to emphasize that being under 44 isn't an automatic get out of jail card. Some will have mild to even no symptoms, others will require hospitalization, some of  those will be on ventilators, some of those will die, and some of those will recover but have a vastly altered life due to lung damage. 

FrankPS wrote: Yep, the definition of "overwhelmed" is subjective. And there probably are some that meet the nebulous definition. And being prepared is a good thing. Anything I left out?

Edit: Don't a lot of nurses normally work 12-hour shifts in a hospital?

It's not subjective for healthcare workers in NY, Italy, France, Spain.

FrankPS wrote: Yep, the definition of "overwhelmed" is subjective. And there probably are some that meet the nebulous definition. And being prepared is a good thing. Anything I left out?

Edit: Don't a lot of nurses normally work 12-hour shifts in a hospital?

What is your motivation in almost daily posts where you attempt to minimize this public health crisis?

James S wrote: Does anyone else find it odd that the US has the most cases in the world despite all the measures taken? There are much poorer, less hygienic, more densely populated countries like India, Indonesia, Brazil, and several third world countries that are fairing much better. Maybe every death and cough and flu in the US is getting slapped with a COVID stamp?

Just my conspiracy theory for the day. 

Insert the word "reported" ("reported cases") James and it may look a little less like a conspiracy?

I'm pretty comfortable speculating that reporting rates are radically different from country to country (even maybe from state to state?)
.

Brad Young wrote:

Insert the word "reported" ("reported cases") James and it may look a little less like a conspiracy?

I'm pretty comfortable speculating that reporting rates are radically different from country to country (even maybe from state to state?)
.

Here is site that aggregates results, it also reports number of tests performed 

​https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/​​​

James S wrote: Does anyone else find it odd that the US has the most cases in the world despite all the measures taken? There are much poorer, less hygienic, more densely populated countries like India, Indonesia, Brazil, and several third world countries that are fairing much better. Maybe every death and cough and flu in the US is getting slapped with a COVID stamp?

Just my conspiracy theory for the day. 

​I bet this fella planned on driving home and the end of the day too.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sandiegouniontribune.com/communities/south-county/story/2020-04-05/cal-fire-requests-helicopter-to-help-rescue-man-in-remote-area-near-descanso%3f_amp=true

Marc801 C wrote: https://coronavirus.utah.gov/case-counts/
That was the source of the table. As far as underlying raw data????

Without a doubt. Then there's mortality rate vs case fatality rate and other variables. I was just trying to emphasize that being under 44 isn't an automatic get out of jail card. Some will have mild to even no symptoms, others will require hospitalization, some of  those will be on ventilators, some of those will die, and some of those will recover but have a vastly altered life due to lung damage. 

Thanks! FWIW, you've got my 32 year old brain feeling extra conscientious. 

So now I’ve that going for me... which is nice.

Here’s another site with useful visualization of the near-real-time-data on global impact. I think it’s developed by John Hopkins University? Haven’t looked too closely under the hood, but seems reliable enough for general impressions.

​JHU global COVID impact map​​​

James S wrote: Does anyone else find it odd that the US has the most cases in the world despite all the measures taken? There are much poorer, less hygienic, more densely populated countries like India, Indonesia, Brazil, and several third world countries that are fairing much better. Maybe every death and cough and flu in the US is 

You're presuming that there's accurate information about what's happening there. They're burning bodies in the street in Guayaquil, Ecuador, for God's sake. And people are ALWAYS dropping dead in the streets of India. Bolsonaro, the leader of Brazil, had his own chief communications advisor test positive. 

Senor Arroz wrote:

Bolsonaro, the leader of Brazil, had his own chief communications advisor, test positive. 

Not to worry, "Ice Crow" who is PAID nutrition whisperer knows everything about vaccines, she says Brazilians have natural immunity. I suppose the ones dying from it in Brazil are not proper Brazilians. 

James S wrote:
And if asking basic questions that anyone should be asking makes me crazy, then so be it. But what does accepting everything you see on the news and people in power make you?

That would make you a fool, if you accepted everything. But you'd also be a fool to ignore everything. Plus, I'm talking to actual doctors who are the first responders dealing with sick people in emergency rooms. That seems like a credible source.

Here's another weird thing for you. Don't know if you've ever been in a war zone. I have. Three different ones, actually. Hollywood movies make it seem like war is just constant "Saving Private Ryan" style chaos and violence. Yet a country at war looks very much like a country not at war, unless you're talking about a totally decimated society like Somalia. And even there, normalcy reigns more than chaos. Same goes with an epidemic. Even during the ebola epidemic it wasn't like there are people running all over a city with blood spurting out of their eyes.

Mike Lane wrote: A few points

* The comparison to annual flu deaths is invalid. The death rate will quickly overtake that number if it hasn't already today.
* Suicides and poverty deaths from the economic fallout here is going to dwarf the epidemic. Be prepared for that.

The Death RATE is probably already higher than the Flu, with about what, 5k last week?  Flu season averages 30-60k Deaths, so maybe that at it's very peak, but not as an average.
I don't expect Suicides and poverty to claim more lives than Covid, honestly, if you subtract the baseline from any extra numbers.  To say it will "dwarf" the disease seems pretty agressive.
Is there some forecast on that which you base this statement?

James S wrote: Does anyone else find it odd that the US has the most cases in the world despite all the measures taken? There are much poorer, less hygienic, more densely populated countries like India, Indonesia, Brazil, and several third world countries that are fairing much better. Maybe every death and cough and flu in the US is getting slapped with a COVID stamp?

Just my conspiracy theory for the day. 

Both climate, which may add to the spread of the disease, and (lack of) accurate counting of deaths likely play into the death count that you see.

Based off the numbers I've seen, it should be looking worse each day, but it's not.

Interesting. What numbers are you looking at? Because 30,000 new cases each day (up from 20,000 a day on March 30) and 1,200 covid-19 deaths each day (up from 500 a day on March 30) seems like things are getting worse.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

And it would be much worse if people kept believing this was a hoax or just like the common cold.

Tony B wrote:

Both climate, which may add to the spread of the disease, and (lack of) accurate counting of deaths likely play into the death count that you see.

Oh, Tony, are you suggesting that India, a country of more than a billion people, isn't accurately reporting when they say that they've only had about 140 Covid-19 deaths?

http://www.91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

I'm sure in that time period India has had 140 deaths by choking to death on diamonds or being eaten by a tiger. And THOUSANDS due to Covid-19. 

What we are doing is a long way from Martial Law.

Essentially the people on here denigrating the epidemiologists this month were constitutional scholars last month.

SinRopa wrote:

I'm not an economist, so I'm not just coming up with my viewpoints in a vacuum.  I've read economists' opinions on both sides of the argument, and I don't deny that there are alternate viewpoints, but I've formed my stance based on the informed writings of economic professionals.  On the other hand, your blanket statement that economists don't see it that way makes it sound like you're not even willing to accept that there's more than one philosophy out there.  How can we engage in an informed debate if you're denying the very existence of evidence because you don't like what it says?

The question I find relevant from the survey is is:

"Question B: Abandoning severe lockdowns at a time when the likelihood of a resurgence in infections remains high will lead to greater total economic damage than sustaining the lockdowns to eliminate the resurgence risk."

80% agree or strongly agree, none disagree. I honestly don't know if this is a representative cross-section of economists, but a sample of 40+, mostly from colleges with very prestigious economics and business programs, is good enough for me. I agree my statement was a little too 'hard-line', but can you point me to an economist who has a cogent argument on the 'disagree' side?

Also, similar to how economics see things differently, so do those who model infections' IFRs.  Your cited number of estimated deaths is largely based on early reporting that indicated a high CFR in the 1-3% range.  As testing increases, both for the virus itself and for COVID antibodies (indicating that one was exposed but is no longer contagious), we've seen the estimated CFR drop, meaning the IFR is "significantly lower than the CFR."   In fact, as of March 29th, the "presumed estimate for the COVID-19 IFR [is] between 0.1% and 0.26%."

Source: cebm.net/covid-19/global-co…

Why are you bouncing back and forth between IFR and CFR? The IFR gives a more realistic picture of what is actually happening, but can't actually be measured until after the fact with statistical sampling of populations where the disease has already come through. As shoddy as the CFR data can be, it is much more actionable. Importantly, the number of cases and the CFR in combination give a good indication of whether medical systems will be overwhelmed - as they have been in Italy and Spain.

Also interesting, for everyone comparing COVID to other viruses: "Although highly transmissible, the CFR of COVID-19 appears to be lower than that of SARS (9.5%) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (34.4%)."

Source: thelancet.com/journals/lani…(20)30244-9/fulltext

MERS has trouble spreading outside of hospitals, or else I imagine it would be spectacularly deadly. SARS was stopped via contact tracing and quarantine. Both combined account for less than 11,000 confirmed cases, while COVID-19 is up to 1,300,000+ cases. This number seems to be doubling about every ten days, with no signs of leveling off soon. To me, this makes comparison of the three diseases a bit of an apples and oranges deal.

James S wrote:

So theoretically India, Brazil, and Indonesia are way worse off than we are? Anything to back that claim up?

Truth be told, everything seems fine here to me. And supposedly it's like a war zone in the city. Yet every time I go into the city it's absolutely dead. Everytime I drive by the hospital, it looks dead. Based off the numbers I've seen, it should be looking worse each day, but it's not. Does that make me right? No, these are just questions.

And if asking basic questions that anyone should be asking makes me crazy, then so be it. But what does accepting everything you see on the news and people in power make you?

Something not being directly in front of your face does not mean it is not happening. By the end of the month we will almost certainly be over 500,000 dead worldwide, and probably closer to 1,000,000. If your local hospital never gets hit, does it mean all of those other cities didn't get demolished?