Predictions: 15c in US?

No, but looking at those lines it's hard to imagine them not being in that rarefied air.

But for Smith to get the first 15c you would need someone who is okay with trash rock quality, would probably have to FA a 15a and 15b first, be willing to travel to bend which isn’t the most convenient place. I just don’t think it makes sense for bend to get the first 15c.

Maybe a bend local can comment on this but how do you even bolt a slight overhang 5.15 in smith without using temporary bolts? I think it would be a lot of work without drilling and patching many holes.

Except that the lines are already bolted, the rock is not trash at all and people come from all over the world to climb at Smith. It's no Ceuse or anything, but the lines I'm referring to are stunning. The one by Scarface was apparently an A5? Or was that the thing next to it?

Stig gleswrote:

Except that the lines are already bolted, the rock is not trash at all 

To bolt or be had a hold break… if I was thinking of hard sport climbing areas where key holds break smith is up there for that possibility. So maybe the rock is mostly fine but if I was an out of towner I would be mildly concerned. Personally on a new Smith route I have bad holds break.

and people come from all over the world to climb at Smith.

But no one has sent 15a or 15b…It just doesn’t seem to be a destination for 5.15 climbers which is important to achieving the first 15c. Also if your a euro you gotta fly to the east coast then to Portland (which might have a layover) then drive to bend, that’s like 15 hours of travel or your in America for a world cup in either colordo or Utah and you can just conveniently drive to some hard crag and get inspired to comeback. If your an American 5.15 climber your probably live in colorado or Utah.

I’m not saying there won’t be 15s I just don’t think smith is first.

Edit: to the comment after me, but Yosemite had many of the first 13s? And we don’t consider it a modern day good contender for 15c.

Smith had the first confirmed 14a and 14c in the US. Ondra worked on a project at Smith just a few years ago. Yes, 5.15 at Smith WOULD be crimpy and hateful. 

Princess Puppy Lovrwrote:

But for Smith to get the first 15c you would need someone who is okay with trash rock quality, would probably have to FA a 15a and 15b first, be willing to travel to bend which isn’t the most convenient place. I just don’t think it makes sense for bend to get the first 15c.

Maybe a bend local can comment on this but how do you even bolt a slight overhang 5.15 in smith without using temporary bolts? I think it would be a lot of work without drilling and patching many holes.

Ground up 15c bolted on hooks. Futuristic brah. 

Edit: I'll leave my spelling mistake for context, and ask forgiveness my brain don't work too gud. 

What if I’m glutton-intolerant?

J W wrote:

Let us hope, for the sake of the Fins—which has already reached, and in many ways exceeded, carrying capacity—he never sends the project, or at least that he decides the route is 14d/15a.

Homie, a 15c ain’t gonna bring more crowds to the fins lol 

JCMwrote:

Not currently. One 14d (a Drew Ruana linkup in the Aggro Gully), and several 14c's.

I can only imagine how hatefully fingery and skin intensive 5.15 would be there. 

I wonder (having never climbed there) if there is 5.15 linkup potential, or if Drew tapped it all out.

First 15c will be in the RRG.  Why?  Because that area is already so soft.

Gumby Kingwrote:

First 15c will be in the RRG.  Why?  Because that area is already so soft.

Lol. What do you climb there then, 10d?

Another likely person to bolt the first US 15c, and not mentioned yet here, is Andy Raether. He's bolted a bunch of hard routes around Vegas, and when a route is too hard will turn it over to stronger folks. This includes the 15a's at Potosi bolted by Raether and climbed by Siegrist. His climbing seems to top out at around 14d or so, but I wouldn't be surprised if he at some point bolts a 15c and turns it over to Siegrist or Woods (who has also repeated hard Raether routes).

Overall, my bet is that the first US 15c is in the Vegas - St George region, is bolted by Siegrist, Kinder, or Raether, and is climbed by Siegrist, Woods, or someone from the younger generation like Bailey or Ruana. For timing, I'm guessing it happens by end of 2025. All this is just speculation, of course.

Not that I have ever even touched a 5.15, but this RRG line bolted by Adam Taylor might be 5.15/+... https://www.redriverclimbing.com/RRCGuide/?type=route&id=2516

There is also this open project in RRG that might be in that range: https://www.redriverclimbing.com/RRCGuide/?type=route&id=3231

Ben Horowitzwrote:

Not that I have ever even touched a 5.15, but this RRG line bolted by Adam Taylor might be 5.15/+... https://www.redriverclimbing.com/RRCGuide/?type=route&id=2516

There is also this open project in RRG that might be in that range: https://www.redriverclimbing.com/RRCGuide/?type=route&id=3231

The first one is likely never going to be worked by anyone that has the skills to do so. It's not aesthetic, and it looks dry like 2 months out of the year. Plus, the way it was bolted makes it look even worse than it already looks, having probably 40 or more bolts in 120ft. Someone would need to pull half of the bolts to make it not look like Sylvester Stallone bolted it with his bolt gun.

Celebrity Cave out in Southern Arizona has the rumored Million Dollar man project. Nathaniel Coleman nearly completed it, heard that it hovers somewhere in the 5.15 range. If it is completed, Arizona would hold the hardest climb in the southwest. He nearly sent the route but it was supposedly out of his pay-grade. mountainproject.com/area/10…

Iain Macdonaldwrote:

Celebrity Cave out in Southern Arizona has the rumored Million Dollar man project. Nathaniel Coleman nearly completed it, heard that it hovers somewhere in the 5.15 range. If it is completed, Arizona would hold the hardest climb in the southwest. He nearly sent the route but it was supposedly out of his pay-grade. mountainproject.com/area/10…

Bold claim considering we don't even know the grade...

Iain Macdonaldwrote:

Celebrity Cave out in Southern Arizona has the rumored Million Dollar man project. Nathaniel Coleman nearly completed it, heard that it hovers somewhere in the 5.15 range. If it is completed, Arizona would hold the hardest climb in the southwest. He nearly sent the route but it was supposedly out of his pay-grade. mountainproject.com/area/10…

For those that haven't seen it, the video series on this area is great.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hAA8NrZpuMQ

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QVFq2i7_Pto

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lrNDkF-fRTw

What Coleman climbs in these videos is to the first anchor ("Lee Majors", at 5.14+). The extension to the top of the cliff supposedly adds several V-doubledigit boulder problems. No idea what the specific grade would be, but 5.14+ to a V10 to a V13  (as it is reported to be for the full line) is for sure going to be world-class difficulty. Definitely a contender on the list of hard US projects.

It seems like the biggest barrier to that route getting done is the remote location. Not a lot of other 5.14+ or 5.15 climbs (or climbers) in that region. There aren't any locals in that area climbing at that level, and it isn't really on the standard road trip circuit either. So for it to get done would require Siegrist/Woods/Bailey/whoever to commit to putting in a lot of time going there specifically for that route.  Whereas a Vegas-area project may get done sooner simply by virtue of being day-trippable from Siegrist's house.

Not Not MP Adminwrote:

Bold claim considering we don't even know the grade...

Is this page about speculation or hard facts? Pretty sure the forum starts with the words "predictions"

Iain Macdonaldwrote:

Is this page about speculation or hard facts? Pretty sure the forum starts with the words "predictions"

OP here. Can confirm this thread is about wild speculation and climbing geekery.