New and Experienced Climbers over 50 #34

Anywhere you go these days Republican voters are verrrrry quiet right now….

I’d be quite open to hearing a conservative voter (esp a Trump voter…which isn’t necessarily the same thing) provide some rational commentary on what has happened in these first 100 days.

Lori Milas wrote:

An attempt to explain California 

Lori - according to this map, we live somewhere below nothing.

I kinda like that.

What about coffee?! Seriously, seems like a good time to taper down my coffee consumption, seeing as almost all coffee here in the U.S. is imported.  

apogee wrote:

Anywhere you go these days Republican voters are verrrrry quiet right now….

I’d be quite open to hearing a conservative voter (esp a Trump voter…which isn’t necessarily the same thing) provide some rational commentary on what has happened in these first 100 days.

Not a Trump voter.   But if Trump actually has a plan (not sure) then it would be to tank the market in order to reduce interest rates.  The government takes in about 4.9 Trillion in taxes, and is currently (depending upon what sources you believe) paying up to  1 Trillion in interest payments.  Anyway, interest payments are a huge, out of control, and wildly growing part of the budget.   As a result, the government is borrowing 2 Trillion a year in order to pay both the interest and the other crap they want to spend on in excess of taxes.  Whichever party you are in, this is obviously not sustainable. When the market tanks, money is moved into “safe” investments - like treasury bills.  Lots of money into T bills, rates (and hence interest payments) go down, saving the government huge amounts of money when T bills come due and they issue new ones at the lower rates.

I dont think he is that smart. he is just a fucking asshole  that does whatever he is told to do by the putin and Musk and then throws cureveballs out there that he pulls out of his ass. 

Ward Smith wrote:

Not a Trump voter.   But if Trump actually has a plan (not sure) then it would be to tank the market in order to reduce interest rates.  The government takes in about 4.9 Trillion in taxes, and is currently (depending upon what sources you believe) paying up to  1 Trillion in interest payments.  Anyway, interest payments are a huge and out of control part of the budget.   As a result, the government is borrowing 2 Trillion a year to pay both the interest and the other crap they want to spend on.  Whichever party you are in, this is obviously not sustainable. When the market tanks, money is moved into “safe” investments - like treasury bills.  Lots of money into T bills, rates (and hence interest payments) go down, saving the government huge amounts of money.  

Ward you're overlooking something. T-bills have been considered safe but that safety was predicated on the stability of the US political and economic systems. Which is rapidly being destroyed. A lot of T-bills are purchased by foreign entities. When they look at this shit show it seems likely they won't buy unless they get better returns.

Raising tax rates on the ultra wealthy back to where they were the last time the US balanced it's budget would be a better way of addressing the deficit. But of course we're going to do the exact opposite if Republicans have their way.

Emil Briggs wrote:

Ward you're overlooking something. T-bills have been considered safe but that safety was predicated on the stability of the US political and economic systems. Which is rapidly being destroyed. A lot of T-bills are purchased by foreign entities. When they look at this shit show it seems likely they won't buy unless they get better returns.

Raising tax rates on the ultra wealthy back to where they were the last time the US balanced it's budget would be a better way of addressing the deficit. But of course we're going to do the exact opposite if Republicans have their way.

A huge and increasing proportion of T bills are purchased by the Federal Reserve, which is a consortium of private banks who issue money out of thin air and are paid back with interest.  Not disagreeing that it will be a problem when foreign countries stop buying T bills, but the Fed can keep buying (inflation).

Republicans want to lower taxes and cut spending.  Democrats want to raise taxes and increase spending.  The only way out of this is to cut spending and increase taxes.

Nobody is proposing that.

Ward Smith wrote:

A huge proportion of T bills are purchased by the Federal Reserve, which is a consortium of private banks who issue money out of thin air and are paid back with interest.  

Republicans want to lower taxes and cut spending.  Democrats want to raise taxes and increase spending.  The only way out of this is to cut spending and increase taxes.

Nobody is proposing that.

Foreign entities purchase roughly 30% of all T-bills which is more than the Fed does (around 25%). The historical reality is Democratic administrations reduce budget deficits while Republicans increase them. Economic growth is better under Democratic administrations as well.

Went climbing Sunday… 

The Lounge, Bill gets the on-site of Lounge Lizard 10b…. Some extra fine granite. You know when you see the “squares” on a hunk of granite and think to yourself…”wish we could find a big chunk of those…” well “they” have! About 70 feet worth… slightly overhung, big holds, nothing positive to grab….. It spit me off! Oh-well another project.

Later all 

Old lady H wrote:

Anyone remember the big push not so long ago, to get more chip, semiconductor, etc stuff manufactured in the US?

Boise based Micron Technology jumped on those incentives, quickly, and bigtime. They are worldwide, but started here, not just corporate, they manufacture here. Employ 5,000 ish employees, and finance the program to educate techies at Boise State University. Built them a technology company.

Anyway, it's a huge campus, and the expansion is also huge.

This is a still from a video that I couldn't figure out how to get in here, but, there's at least 2 dozen cranes on site. The original facilities have their own bus system. You get the idea.

So, yay 'Murica, right??

But. Then there's this.

Screenshot from this morning. Note the 52 week high....and the 52 week low.

From this morning.

According to the local radio Friday? Micron lost 27% in two days.

Okay, so what, that's not in my stock portfolio, one might say. What does it matter?

But that's the value of a company that IS moving manufacturing at least partly domestically.

But the part people aren't pondering?

Those 5000 people. 

If you work for Fortune 500 companies, even just as a cog in the assembly machine?

You likely have some part of your compensation package vested in the company.

Those people buy houses. They buy groceries 

High school grads who go to BSU might choose to go into tech. 

And.....

The big one? Just......uncertainty. Red, blue, whatever. Plain ordinary people also face uncertainty. 

Why???? What are we "fixing" here???

Helen

Micron was a fantastic company, they had bought Photobit a Pasadena image sensor company I had worked with. After spinning off Aptina it got sold to On-Semi.

The memory company is still pretty good, not sure what technology they use? 10nm class process node. Amazing what you can do with older technology.

Intel here in Santa Clara is working on getting Intel18 or roughly 3nm class into MP from a 30% initial yield. Hopefully the partnership with TSMC can help with yields and modernise their process a bit? It has a bunch of promising innovations and should shave a lot of power. Not sure if it is comparable to the TSMC 2nm node or not? More likely closer to 3nm.

SMIC in China, for reference, is using DUV which is a much older technology to fabricate at 5nm. Just stepped into MP. Russia built the first EUV using ionised Xenon CW rather than arcing tin droplets like ASML. So, if they partner up, may give ASML a serious run for their money.

Chips are getting smaller, but at some point atomic “diameters” are going to limit how small a node can get. 1nm may be it…

Guy Keesee wrote:

Went climbing Sunday… 

The Lounge, Bill gets the on-site of Lounge Lizard 10b…. Some extra fine granite. You know when you see the “squares” on a hunk of granite and think to yourself…”wish we could find a big chunk of those…” well “they” have! About 70 feet worth… slightly overhung, big holds, nothing positive to grab….. It spit me off! Oh-well another project.

Later all 

Where is that Guy, or is it another under the radar area?

Southern Sierra - Kern area.

Nick Goldsmith wrote:

I dont think he is that smart. he is just a fucking asshole  that does whatever he is told to do by the putin and Musk and then throws cureveballs out there that he pulls out of his ass. 

Tell us what you really think, Nick (I wouldn’t change a word!).

Ward Smith wrote:

A huge and increasing proportion of T bills are purchased by the Federal Reserve, which is a consortium of private banks who issue money out of thin air and are paid back with interest.  Not disagreeing that it will be a problem when foreign countries stop buying T bills, but the Fed can keep buying (inflation).

Republicans want to lower taxes and cut spending.  Democrats want to raise taxes and increase spending.  The only way out of this is to cut spending and increase taxes.

Nobody is proposing that.

It is not so much cut spending but stop spending, all agencies and departments get the budget they have and no more for a set number of years, not a cut immediately but indeed a cut over time. Next raise taxes on , obviously the 1% and people with a lot of money. I believe there should be no billionaires but that is a topic for a different time. And the least favorite no tax refunds for a number of years , to be determined. No tax cuts for anything. 

Alan Rubin wrote:

Where is that Guy, or is it another under the radar area?

Yes, Southern Sierra- like Jan says.
It’s quite funny really, we have so much unclimbed stone in the South Sierra with roads going to almost all of it, people don’t want it listed on MP because…. MP isn’t considered “trustworthy” and the thought is that MP will use the information to make money. And the thinking is that if listed on MP people will over run our crags.
Personally I think that is BS ….. for some reason climbers in LA will drive for 5 hours on a Friday evening - in stop and go traffic-then drive around looking for camping in JT and wait for a climb. Almost nobody will drive the 2.5 hours and find free camping. Go figure.
Alan if you, or anyone else, comes out this way please let me know. I can hand you a PDF. It’s so big now that it’s in 4 parts! That’s not counting the entire Dome Land wilderness.

OLH… nice art work! My 2.5 year old granddaughter has me drawing (poorly) horses, cats and dogs, in crayon... the old skills are rusty but returning. Keep it up.

Later all 

Ward Smith wrote:

Not a Trump voter.   But if Trump actually has a plan (not sure) then it would be to tank the market in order to reduce interest rates.  The government takes in about 4.9 Trillion in taxes, and is currently (depending upon what sources you believe) paying up to  1 Trillion in interest payments.  Anyway, interest payments are a huge, out of control, and wildly growing part of the budget.   As a result, the government is borrowing 2 Trillion a year in order to pay both the interest and the other crap they want to spend on in excess of taxes.  Whichever party you are in, this is obviously not sustainable. When the market tanks, money is moved into “safe” investments - like treasury bills.  Lots of money into T bills, rates (and hence interest payments) go down, saving the government huge amounts of money when T bills come due and they issue new ones at the lower rates.

Coo coo thinking, my friend… 

You speculate: Trump is “smart” enough to “tank the economy “ to ”fix” the national debt…. 

Come on man….  That’s just Crazy Talk (tm).

Trump whole sales pitch is: tariffs will correct trade imbalances.   He’s never, ever mentioned national debt.

It’s completely disingenuous to conflate the two.
Trade imbalances have nothing to do with the natIonal debt.  Trade imbalances result from other countries buying less from us than we buy from them.  

A painfully simple explanation of trade imbalance:

They don’t buy our stuff because: they don’t want it, or can‘t afford it , or think our stuff is $h!t…

We buy their stuff because: we want it, or can afford it, or don’t think their stuff is $h!t….

That should be pretty simple to understand….

The national debt is a completely different issue.  America had this debate awhile ago: (think Hamilton vs Jefferson back in 1790 or so.)  Turns out, it’s actually good fiscal policy to have some debt.  (Every successful government and business has to take on some debt to grow, this is an empirical fact.)

National debt (like personal debt) only becomes a problem when it’s larger than the debtor can reasonably pay back.

Start a war with Iraq, and put  it all on the Government credit card= increased national debt….

Build a 600 fleet navy to finish off the already dying Soviet Union=  increased national debt

Give crazy tax breaks to wealthy corporations and wealthy citizens (who already enjoy a disproportionate benefit of being American) = increased national debt…

Perhaps our national debt is way too high, but tanking our economy to “fix” it; is criminal… (Or just an adderall induced fever dream of an 80 year-old child…)

ed “wonders how many friends of Trump shorted this market, and when did they know to do it… e

ps.. Ward,  re: Az Boulder problem; .”Nothing But Strong“(tm)

Old lady H wrote:No climbing, I was on a 2 day overnight trip with the other people I'm hanging out with, local folks who enjoy doing art

I'm still just trying to get drawing back, after a 30 year hiatus, let alone learn painting, but it was fun, anyway.

I started doing art classes about 25 years ago, when I had a break between science jobs. I really love it, but it’s always taken a back seat to life responsibilities and climbing. I’m a happy dabbler. I still paint sporadically  

About 2 years ago I did a series of copies of various paintings, by great artists I love. It was fun to post them on Facebook and give them away as people “claimed”them.

I did another one recently for my husband who asked for a Franz Kline to hang in the office above his computer:

The original is titled Mahoning:

It was a good exercise for me to work in just black and white as I’m a color freak. About 10 layers back and forth building up the depth.

It’s a great passion, Helen. Keep sharing. I love to see it. Loved seeing Wendy and Fossil’s stuff last month too. 

Happy spring everyone!  Second day in a row of this great climbing weather.  Heading to the gym.

I got out for an afternoon of climbing in beautiful shady weather. From the get-go I thought “this is HARD”. Lately climbing is harder than I remember. I kept muttering to myself “this is only a 5.8?”  (maybe a 5.9).  (I know Brandt. There are many great 5.8 routes.  )

On this route there are precarious moves all along the way that are potential knee scrapers, shin bangers, shoulder dislodgers.  There has to come a moment of surrender where you decide to get into the weeds and go for it, belly up to the problem without fear. It takes me a minute to get there. 

Every now and then I needed to stop and think “what was the problem there? What did I just learn?“ in every case I realize that I pulled back because I didn’t trust the move. The problem wasn’t lack of strength, the problem was fear.

When Bob coaches, it is pure magic. When talking me through a difficult spot… “get a good left hand jam, step far out to the right, push off with the left hand and stand up straight on your right leg.“. It reminds me of learning to dance. 

Nothing about this sport is ladylike. Just have to let that go.

Trump’s tariff rationale has been based on ‘emergency powers’- even to someone who wants tariffs, this rationale is pretty thin, given how (generally) well the economy was doing up until last week. Why hasn’t Congress pushed back against this, with lawsuits that immediately go to the SC? Imposition of tariffs are lawfully the responsibility of Congress, and they’ve been shirking most of their responsibility for far too long.

Constitutional responsibility aside, Republicans have a vested interest in reining Trump in, since this will certainly come back on them at the mid-terms. It wouldn’t be surprising, though, to see Dems drag their feet on any such efforts, as they could use a declining economy to their political advantage, in the same way Trump blocked last years bill that would have reined in immigration. Jeebus, what a shithole country this has become.