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How many people have climbed NIAD?

Original Post
Be Young · · Unknown Hometown · Joined Aug 2019 · Points: 0

Title says it all. How many people have climbed the NIAD? Obviously some people have done it dozens of times, but I'm just wondering how many individual people. Anyone have a record or just a good guess?

Nick Ehman · · Bloomington, IN · Joined Feb 2012 · Points: 50

Here’s a simple way to approach this problem: 

3 people in 1975 + 4 new people in 1976 + 5 new people in 1977… + 50 new people in 2022 = 1272

This year on MP, 20 individuals ticked their first NIAD. However, lots of folks don’t tick their ascents, especially climbers visiting from outside the country. My best guess is that 50-80 people did their first NIAD this year, and that 1000-2500 total climbers have done it.

Be Young · · Unknown Hometown · Joined Aug 2019 · Points: 0

I have to say, I am impressed by the logical approach from Nick. Don't know if it's accurate at all, but I was guessing the same range and had no calculation to back it up. 

Ben F · · Utah currently · Joined Oct 2020 · Points: 0

I have absolutely nothing to base this off of but I would say something like 100 people a year the last 20 years plus all those from the 70s 80s and 90s would ballpark the figure at 3000-5000

Kevin Kent · · Unknown Hometown · Joined Aug 2010 · Points: 1,590

I think this is a fun question. Pretty hard to know. I would guess somewhere around 2000 people. Would be interesting to hear from someone who spends a lot of time in the valley how many people do it each month in the height of the spring and fall seasons these last few years. I think it could easily be 20 people a week doing it for their first time during a good weather window in early june or October. Obviously numbers drop off a lot for probably 9 months of the year.
When I did it in late May a few years back (on the last day of good weather before a multi-day storm) I think there were 6 parties (12 people) who did it that day. I would guess 8 to 10 of us were doing it for our first time.

Jon Rhoderick · · Redmond, OR · Joined Jul 2009 · Points: 966

Another related question: is NIAD more common than any ascent of Mt Everest (approximately 6,100). I’ve always thought that NIAD was less common than climbing Mt Everest and free El Cap in a day (or maybe just free ascents over all) are less common than Everest ascents without supplemental O2. 

Sirius · · Oakland, CA · Joined Nov 2003 · Points: 660

 I think it could easily be 20 people a week doing it for their first time

I wonder what percentage of parties trying to fire the NIAD for the first time end up bailing or doing it in a push > 24 hrs, vs sending < 24 hrs. My wild guess: 

45% bail, 20% top out > 24 hours, 35% send IAD

Most frequent complicating factor for first two groups has got to be crowds/other parties. 

Further meaningless conjecture: having one partner who's fired IAD has got to greatly increase chance of success. That 35% could bump to 75% I bet. 

Ben F · · Utah currently · Joined Oct 2020 · Points: 0
Sirius wrote:

I wonder what percentage of parties trying to fire the NIAD for the first time end up bailing or doing it in a push > 24 hrs, vs sending < 24 hrs. My wild guess: 

45% bail, 20% top out > 24 hours, 35% send IAD

My gut feeling is that NIAD success rate is actually quite a bit higher. I think a 45% bail rate of people trying to do a traditional 3+ day ascent might be pretty accurate, but I feel like those who try nose in a day are self-selected to already be pretty solid and know to choose days to minimize crowds and weather complications. If had to guess I would say that of those going for NIAD 20% bail, 60% top out IAD, and another 20% top out in 24+ hours. 

Jake Messner · · NorCal · Joined Jan 2020 · Points: 184

I seem to remember seeing a stat somewhere that about 1100 people had climbed it, and that was posted around 2010, I think by Sloan. That sounded like the right ballpark to me and, estimating 50x per year since then, it would be a little under 2000 people now. 

Guideline #1: Don't be a jerk.

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