Predictions: 15c in US?

Iain Macdonaldwrote:

Is this page about speculation or hard facts? Pretty sure the forum starts with the words "predictions"

My prediction is that it's not harder than 5.15b....meaning it would not be the hardest sport climb in the SW...

Not Not MP Adminwrote:

My prediction is that it's not harder than 5.15b....meaning it would not be the hardest sport climb in the SW...

Well I just visualized myself sending it so it’s likely no harder than 11c

Tal Mwrote:

Well I just visualized myself sending it so it’s likely no harder than 11c

idk, I think you missed the secret knee bar. 11b with the right shindex brah 

Agree wholeheartedly that the likely 15c will come from the limestone in Nevada or Utah...Probably somewhere closer to where climbers live than say Rainbow Cave up near Ely...

Smith is a good contender simply because of the sheer amount of dedicated climbers there, the potential, the history of bolting and opening projects, and the draw for international climbers...

BUT--what does a 15c slab or pure vertical look like? Is it possible? Cuz that puts granite faces back into play--but the sheer pain of crimping on "ideas of holds," man...

To complement, I think one could go bolt easily the next 5.16 or 5.17 -- some purely blank face with zero features...but that doesn't seem like the same challenge...It's the sticky wicket of finding rock just on the very edge of possible to climb.  And then that needs to match with location and access, enjoyment of climbing, time to invest, pool of "applicants," etc...

When I look at routes here in Southern Frankenjura, it makes me think...20 years ago, I probably would have been in the group of climbers saying, "Line X will never go," and now that Line X has been sent, it seems a foregone conclusion that it would go.  Very few have the skill and vision to see future brutal puzzles and understand "Yes, it can be done."  Fewer still to see the 5.15c or d level--the very edge of what is currently possible.  I have scoped a line here that I looked at and said, "Simply no way," yet if I did all the work of cleaning and bolting, it would likely still come in far above my pay grade but far below the limits of possibility...

That all being said, I expect the eventual 15c to come as an extension of an already proud line--the artist already knows what has been accomplished and is possible, and only has to realize just a little more...that's my prediction... 

JCMwrote:

 - I've heard rumor there's a much harder direct start into Jumbo Love, increasing the grade 

We’ve got a winner.

Seb is a beast and I hope he tries some of Siegrist’s latest FA’s like Event Horizon while he’s in the states 

Classic frenchy breaking new grades for the US

For those unaware: Seb Bouin jsut sent the direct start to Jumbo Love (5.15b, classic Sharma line), which he's calling "Supreme Jumbo Love".  9b+/5.15c. planetmountain.com/en/news/…

10 days for Seb to climb Jumbo love, and then crushes the direct start soon after.. ooof. 

• "The line (Jumbo Love) consists of long, varied, endurance-testing climbing. It starts with 60 ft section of 7c/7c+ to reach the start of the route, where the line begins with 100ft of 45° overhung 8c+ climbing including a crux sequence requiring a contortion move with an inverted foothold and a sloping pinch, then tops out with a top section of 8a+/8b."

Supreme Jumbo replaces the 60 ft of 7c+ to 9a, to 100ft 8c+ to 8a+/b. I think I saw that this removes the rest as well? Damn all that for just adding a "+" huh?

Megos is opening up hard FA's in heavily climbed areas like Margalef and Siuranna.  Feels like it only takes him making a proper US trip for some under-the-radar (to the plebes) spots to be opened. 

also lol at someone saying places like smith rock are inconvenient.  It can't be that much further to smith from portland than it is from margalef to barca.  Same with lexington ky and the Red.  

Personally, I wouldn't be surprised if there are still some hard-hards hiding in the new.  There's already a 5.15 there with plenty of steepness that hasn't been bolted yet. The red would be the obvious east coast location for 15c, but given how quickly that has been bolted, it feels like someone would have put it up by now.  So much rock hiding in the woods down there...

Rob Dwrote:

Megos is opening up hard FA's in heavily climbed areas like Margalef and Siuranna.  Feels like it only takes him making a proper US trip for some under-the-radar (to the plebes) spots to be opened. 

also lol at someone saying places like smith rock are inconvenient.  It can't be that much further to smith from portland than it is from margalef to barca.  Same with lexington ky and the Red.  

Personally, I wouldn't be surprised if there are still some hard-hards hiding in the new.  There's already a 5.15 there with plenty of steepness that hasn't been bolted yet. The red would be the obvious east coast location for 15c, but given how quickly that has been bolted, it feels like someone would have put it up by now.  So much rock hiding in the woods down there...

I think the odds favor a 15c in the NRG over one in the RRG, just from a stylistic and geologic perspective.  The smaller holds/edges (overall) tend to be more bomber at the New than the Red. I mean there also isn’t any move harder than like V11 in all of the Red right   

Rob Dwrote:

Megos is opening up hard FA's in heavily climbed areas like Margalef and Siuranna.  Feels like it only takes him making a proper US trip for some under-the-radar (to the plebes) spots to be opened. 

also lol at someone saying places like smith rock are inconvenient.  It can't be that much further to smith from portland than it is from margalef to barca.  Same with lexington ky and the Red.  

Personally, I wouldn't be surprised if there are still some hard-hards hiding in the new.  There's already a 5.15 there with plenty of steepness that hasn't been bolted yet. The red would be the obvious east coast location for 15c, but given how quickly that has been bolted, it feels like someone would have put it up by now.  So much rock hiding in the woods down there...

I know there are some wild south facing walls in Wyoming that are kind of a pain to get too with hard route potential. I also know of a few random unpublished faces and caves in NE Washington that were not chipped down and could have some of the routes of the future. 

And the answer is: seb bouin with the direct to jumbo love

Rob Dwrote:

also lol at someone saying places like smith rock are inconvenient.  It can't be that much further to smith from portland than it is from margalef to barca.  Same with lexington ky and the Red.  

How many people climb 5.15 that are within 5 hours of Portland? Europe has far more 5.15 climbers. Getting to margalef from Paris is a whole lot easier than smith from Paris. Who is going to fly across the world to a crag that doesn't have a 15a or 15b hoping to climb 15c?

There are probably harder lines to be had at the Fortress of Solitude than Flex Luthor, but the question is who among 5.15 climbers is going to clean and bolt a new route in all that choss? Nobody

I'm just waiting for someone to send the 15+ projects in the blank cave in the utah hills. Seriously, looking through the mojave limestone book there are no end of 5.15 projects that are slightly inconvenient in one way or another. Supreme Jumbo Love is just one of them. Seb's a fucking animal! 

Anyone who thinks Smith will be the location of future 5.15s is off their rocker. The only person strong enough to climb 5.15 who has spent significant time there in the last two decades is Drew Ruana and he climbed the place out when he was 16 only because he lived in Seattle. It's just not a cutting edge climbing destination anymore.

As for the 'chipped down' argument, IDK if that's really valid, the clear light cave at Potosi is for example a modern day chipped crag and holds some of the hardest lines in the southwest. If you're strong enough you can drill a 5.15c.

Daniel Chode Riderwrote:

I'm just waiting for someone to send the 15+ projects in the blank cave in the utah hills. Seriously, looking through the mojave limestone book there are no end of 5.15 projects that are slightly inconvenient in one way or another. Supreme Jumbo Love is just one of them. Seb's a fucking animal! 

Anyone who thinks Smith will be the location of future 5.15s is off their rocker. The only person strong enough to climb 5.15 who has spent significant time there in the last two decades is Drew Ruana and he climbed the place out when he was 16 only because he lived in Seattle. It's just not a cutting edge climbing destination anymore.

I agree with everything you’re saying, but didn’t Ondra go there and climb the place out in like half an hour? Lol 

Also before Drew came onto the scene didn’t Ryan Palo climb everything at Smith? He wasn’t putting up new grades for the area but pretty sure he also climbed everything hard at the time, including Just Do It…ten years ago now (prior to The Assassin‘s development).

As for the 'chipped down' argument, IDK if that's really valid, the clear light cave at Potosi is for example a modern day chipped crag and holds some of the hardest lines in the southwest. If you're strong weak enough you can drill a 5.15c.

Fixed it for ya!

5.15a will almost certainly come to Smith eventually, someone just has to put in the time. The undone project on the Awl that Ondra tried is at least 5.14d, and the moves go. 

The main problem is that the hardest routes at Smith typically require a lot of cleaning (and sometimes glue), which makes route development too time consuming for most visiting climbers. There are strong locals, but none of them are that strong. The first 15a at Smith will probably be a gifted project to a visiting strong kid that turned out to be too hard for the locals.

J T wrote:

Is that due to the climb‘s location or climbers’ though?

In other words, is it because there are more 5.15’s near those who can do it or because those who can do it are near the 5.15’s. Like, if you those placed those Europeans in the states do you think there would be more 5.15’s around or less 5.15 climbers? I don’t know if we will ever be able to answer that, but it’s worth considering. 

I agree that Europe has more 5.15 climbers, but it also has way more climbs available for people to pick and choose from. 

I think the best proxy for climbing ability has to be world cups, which America underperforms relative to Europe in. 

Boulderers do it all the time for their respective grades (V16 and now V17)…granted it’s much easier to project boulders in many ways, but I‘m not sure that’s an excuse. Projecting Supréme is arguably more bold than going to a crag without a 5.15a or 5.15b as it’s so remote and isolated as well if you ask me. 

The one upside to supreme is there is already a confirmed 15b and the possibility of a 15c. The other upside to supreme is if you decide it aint worth it, at least your relatively close to other options (Mt. Charleston is what 75 min away with more 14ds than smith and the hurricave is maybe 3 hours). You show up to smith and its too hot or snowing what do you do? Most bail options would be require flying out of portand. 

Princess Puppy Lovrwrote:

I think the best proxy for climbing ability has to be world cups, which America underperforms relative to Europe in. 

Idk if there is a best proxy. This is a pretty bad take if you ask me. For one, comparing comp routes to the hardest routes being projected outside is not remotely fair as most comp routes are significantly easier, different style, and much different processes to send/win. For two, aside from a handful of climbers there aren’t many people climbing 5.15b or 5.15c and winning lead championships. Shubert and Ondra (and Megos when he competes) are pretty much the only ones. For three, American competitive climbers are pretty well documented as being less funded/supported than many other European climbing teams. 

Supreme Jumbo Love sounds like something I'd finish... if I ordered it at Dairy Queen.