Early vs Late season trips - minimizing smoke vs snow hazards in the era of climate change ?

After the past couple of summers how do you think about and weigh early vs late season high-country trips to avoid fire/smoke while minimizing blizzard and snow navigation risks?

Trying to plan best windows for 2022 trips to the Cascades and lower Canadian Rockies with less experienced friends who are not going to want to descend Aasgard pass in heavy snow. I'm not sure if its better to shoot for May vs late September for high alpine hikes and scrambling in these ranges. Have same question for trips I'm brainstorming to the Colorado Rockies and the Alps in 2023. 

I live in the central Midwest and due to child and profession constraints have to plan these sorts of trips a minimum of 6-9 months out, sometimes earlier - Especially for those of you who aren't fortunate enough to have the mountains in your backyard and have to plan in advance, how are you thinking about these questions? If I lived in Seattle or Canmore I would obviously just wait for an ideal weekend to go. 

Asgard is fine in July. Find the climb you wanna do look at when people are generally ticking the climb and go then. Have a backup plan for smoke.

6+ years ago late August/Sept was the ideal time for Cascades backpacking/rock climbing.  It generally rained until mid-July and by august there was no snow and importantly no bugs.

1-5 years ago better get your trip done by the 7/31 or be smoked out.

This year major fires started on 7/15.   And a greater than normal snowpack practically vanished at the end of June. Fortunately we've been blessed by consistent westerly winds but that's not a given.

May and early June you'll still be slogging in the snow.  Anymore mid-June through mid/late July should be the window you can count on, bugs be damned.

BTW Love the Photo!

Also descending Asgard Pass on snow would be WAAAYYY better than when its dirt/scree.

The question wasn't when is Aasgard good. It's specifically asking about peoples thoughts on shoulder season climbing as to avoid smoke and fires. July is prime time for smoke and fires. Sure, have a back up plan if you have to climb during fire season, or as OP has obviously started doing, look at shoulder seasons so as to avoid the need for a smoke necessitated back up plan.

I think the real deal is just being flexible with your time. Obviously shoulder season timing can vary year to year dependent on local weather patterns so you will need to spend time monitoring these and act accordingly.

Point still standing the best way to figureout when to get on a route from ice to boulder to alpine is to look at the climbing area ticks. That should give you a far better sense than speculating. You can compare that information to historical weather and it should give you a good enough idea. 

Even with all the smoke over the last few years acid baby generally goes from end of june to early august. 

Princess Puppy Lovrwrote:

Point still standing the best way to figureout when to get on a route from ice to boulder to alpine is to look at the climbing area ticks. That should give you a far better sense than speculating. You can compare that information to historical weather and it should give you a good enough idea. 

Even with all the smoke over the last few years acid baby generally goes from end of june to early august. 

Early August?  More like early November.  I've never encountered really bad smoke in the Enchantments.  WA Pass is a different story.   

Darin Berdinkawrote:

6+ years ago late August/Sept was the ideal time for Cascades backpacking/rock climbing.  It generally rained until mid-July and by august there was no snow and importantly no bugs.

1-5 years ago better get your trip done by the 7/31 or be smoked out.

This year major fires started on 7/15.   And a greater than normal snowpack practically vanished at the end of June. Fortunately we've been blessed by consistent westerly winds but that's not a given.

May and early June you'll still be slogging in the snow.  Anymore mid-June through mid/late July should be the window you can count on, bugs be damned.

BTW Love the Photo!

Also descending Asgard Pass on snow would be WAAAYYY better than when its dirt/scree.

Guessing you haven't been on Aasgard lately.  The level of traffic is so high that it has become a pretty well kicked in trail.  Very little dirt scree surfing involved nowadays.  

Erroneous Publicuswrote:

Early August?  More like early November.  I've never encountered really bad smoke in the Enchantments.  WA Pass is a different story.   

Considering the tick list is a larger sample size than personal experience... but two of the last 3 years have few ticks end of August-Early September. Then some people climb in September with few in October and November. I am not saying you can't but the data shows that there are at least condition windows most people avoid in the summer. Considering he lives in the Midwest a trip in November seems like bad advice. 

Erroneous Publicuswrote:

Guessing you haven't been on Aasgard lately.  The level of traffic is so high that it has become a pretty well kicked in trail.  Very little dirt scree surfing involved nowadays.  

Last weekend!  Thought it was @#$%ing terrible.  BITD there was a semblance of a trail, now there's one hundred intertwined erosion gullies from all the traffic.