Climbing gym and coronavirus

Morning news just reported a health screener at LAX has it.
So, someone walked through a super busy airport, where people are dispersing everywhere, and gave it to a screener who quite likely was taking way more precautions than we are.
China has the ability to take whatever means necessary to contain and quarantine. Unverified stories include reports of extensive gunfire and welding doors shut.
Something to factor in with the equations about how fast and far it will spread. 

Andrei Steclaru wrote: Do you know what is the most common 'argument' I see online whenever someone has the audacity to suggest 'Hey people, let's just calm down here, we don't know how serious this thing is yet'? It's 'Well, they wouldn't be talking so much about it if it wasn't serious'. Do you not see a problem with this approach? The world isn't ending, yet a good portion of the population is panicking needlessly simply because they constantly talk about it on the news. Exactly the same thing happened in 2009, and it turned out to not be that big a deal.

You raise an interesting point. Of course, it is a moot point since in order to see if the media hype was overblown we would need to see consequences of exactly the same pandemic without reactions caused by media hype. 

For example, right now - how would one estimate consequences of Chinese government NOT locking down major metropolitan areas and NOT restricting travel within country. How would one estimate NOT restricting travel of cruise ship passengers who later go to develop viral infection symptoms?

Dave K wrote:

Apparently my Vietnam war comparison didn't sink in. For a 20 year-old woman or a 40 year-old man living in the US in 1968, the probability of dying in Vietnam was 0.0%. Even for a young man serving in the military, the probability of getting killed was pretty low.

So, by your logic, nobody should have been paying attention to the Vietnam war in 1968. Because statistically relative to the entire population, not that many people were dying. And the probability of the typical American dying was effectively zero. But people did care, because they valued the lives that were lost, even if it wasn't their own.

You and I are very unlikely to die from coronavirus. But the probability that a loved one or close friend dies is a lot higher. The probability that we know someone that loses a loved one or close friend is much higher than that. How much this affects our lives depends upon much we are affected by the lives of our family, friends, and relationships.

I get that the 24/7 news cycle sucks and it is absurdly repetitive. There's a solution to that: turn off the TV, put down the phone. In any case coronavirus is definitely a newsworthy story. At least as newsworthy as Kobe Bryant or Benghazi or the Kardashians.

Wait, Vietnam war was a viral disease?

Donovan Allen wrote: How do you get the soap up there?

Pressure washer....is how I do it.

Only the best Purell. Top quality. Discreet only.
BTC plz.

Gumby the White wrote:

Laughable.

A. this global virus came from China. However flawed the healthcare here is, I'd take it over anything in China's corrupt system.

B. I had free healthcare in a third world country and holy shit. I wish I still had the picture of the stitches they used, it looked like 200 lb test fishing line (i.e. very thick). The doctor went to start stitching up the wound and he kept trying to use the needle and it wouldn't puncture the skin. "Wow you have very tough skin". I asked him to try a new needle and when he pulled a new one out of the package it went through like butter, so he was using a very old needle..... gross.... needless to say i pulled the stitches out myself and didn't go back to that hospital....

Regarding your first point, I must jump in.

I lived in China for years and the US could definitely learn a thing or two from their healthcare system. Quick anecdotes:

Friend injured knee and needed to see a doctor. We went to local hospital after lunch. Signed in (paid $0.75 to get her name in the system) and was sent to orthopedics. Doctor looked at her knee and said get a CT. We walked over to get a CT. Paid a little over $50. Got CT. Waited for results. Got results. Took them back to doctor and had diagnosis. All of this happened in the span of 4 hours and cost less than $60.

Another time I was having stomach pains. Suspected ulcers.Put it off until I couldn't take it any longer. Again, signed in for less than a dollar. Immediately sent to a gastroenterologist and had an endoscopy to confirm. No ulcers. Told to lay off many foods (coffee, tea are all I remember at the moment, but the list was long and mostly acidic and hard to digest foods) for a couple months. Actually solved the problem and was back to pounding coffee. Less than $50 and 3 hours. Seriously, went in with no appointment after breakfast and was out before lunch.

If that's corrupt, WTF is America's system?

Mark Starr wrote:

Regarding your first point, I must jump in.

I lived in China for years and the US could definitely learn a thing or two from their healthcare system. Quick anecdotes:

Friend injured knee and needed to see a doctor. We went to local hospital after lunch. Signed in (paid $0.75 to get her name in the system) and was sent to orthopedics. Doctor looked at her knee and said get a CT. We walked over to get a CT. Paid a little over $50. Got CT. Waited for results. Got results. Took them back to doctor and had diagnosis. All of this happened in the span of 4 hours and cost less than $60.

Another time I was having stomach pains. Suspected ulcers.Put it off until I couldn't take it any longer. Again, signed in for less than a dollar. Immediately sent to a gastroenterologist and had an endoscopy to confirm. No ulcers. Told to lay off many foods (coffee, tea are all I remember at the moment, but the list was long and mostly acidic and hard to digest foods) for a couple months. Actually solved the problem and was back to pounding coffee. Less than $50 and 3 hours. Seriously, went in with no appointment after breakfast and was out before lunch.

If that's corrupt, WTF is America's system?

Are you seriously arguing that China is less corrupt than the US? 

No place is perfect and all politicians are corrupt, but man, wow..... lol
For all of those saying how horrible everything is in the USA why are you here still? Look no system is perfect and I am not pounding saying “Murcia’”, but JFC guys, we have it pretty good here compared to China and a lot of other countries....

Gumby the White wrote:

Are you seriously arguing that China is less corrupt than the US? 

No place is perfect and all politicians are corrupt, but man, wow..... lol
For all of those saying how horrible everything is in the USA why are you here still? Look no system is perfect and I am not pounding saying “Murcia’”, but JFC guys, we have it pretty good here compared to China and a lot of other countries....

Admit it, you voted for Trump ;-)

It's going to be alright, bros

Gumby King wrote:

Admit it, you voted for Trump ;-)

Lol!!!!! That’s funny

#okgumby

Gumby the White wrote:

Lol!!!!! That’s funny

#okgumby

Love it or Leave it.  Right or wrong.  MAGA - what goes around comes around

Eric Engberg wrote:

Love it or Leave it.  Right or wrong.  MAGA - what goes around comes around

The thread is about the Coronovirus...  Not the MAGAvirus 

M Sprague wrote: Flu Vs COVID-19 https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html It is probably a good time to give up your smoking and vaping habit for a while. Personally, I don't think you want to be too flippant about the whole thing, especially if you are middle aged or older or smoke. Healthy younger people can get wiped out too, though that is less likely. The death rate seems to be about 10-20 time the flu, and even if it doesn't kill you outright it can cause real damage. Respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction/failure is kind of a drag.

Seasonal flu mortality is around 0.02%

H1N1 of 2008-2009 had a mortality of 0.15%

Coronavirus, if it's in fact 2%, is ~100 times deadlier than common flu, and 12.5 times deadlier than H1N1 was in 2008-2009.

And I fully believe that bar a miracle vaccine or act of God, we are quite likely to get the virus whether we go to the gym or not.

If there is no solution...there is no problem.

Mike Lane wrote: Here is something a Facebook friend of mine posted.
I'd like to run it by the knowledgeable people here for analysis/rebuttal:

*please read entire post and be sure you are well versed in the principles discussed before commenting.

CDC updates CoVid19 death rate to 3.4% with an R0 of 2.5.
(34 people per thousand infected will likely die.)
For comparison:
    Flu death rate is .1%
    And its R0 is 1.3
(1 person for every 1000 infected will die)

This means Covid death rate  is 3299% higher than the flu.
(%increase from .1 to 3.4%)
This means Covid19 is 92 % more contagious than the flu.  

At 2.5 R0 we can expect 70% of the U.S. population to be infected.  
That makes an expected U.S. 231,700,000 infections.
7,877,800 deaths.  

This assumes unmitigated spread.
No treatment is currently available to treat CoVid19
*R0 is not a biological constant for a pathogen as it is also affected by other factors such as environmental conditions and the behaviour of the infected population.

R0 and Death rate Numbers are based on current data and estimates from CDC, and WHO based on infections and deaths seen OUTSIDE of china and are averaged among the entire age range of the population.

Using this approach for China:

1,435,000,000 population means 1,004,500,000 infected
3,425,649 deaths.

Current China infections are around 80,000 with 3,000 deaths...not even close!

Rather than political spew, here's something that will actually help:

DON'T GO TO THE CLIMBING GYM IF YOU HAVE A FEVER, SNIFFLES, COUGH, SHORTNESS OF BREATH, ETC.

That shouldn't have to be said, but I see people with some of those symptoms in the gym too frequently.

Don't be a "think only for yourselfer." 

https://www.climbing.com/news/do-climbing-gyms-pose-a-coronavirus-risk/?fbclid=IwAR07WO1hr8BLBjFL9ljN4pmlWnuAbc1IBW_75DzehApQ8eWAETdw8OWAn_Q

Fuel to this fire ... more opinions.

Arlo F Niederer wrote:

Using this approach for China:

1,435,000,000 population means 1,004,500,000 infected
3,425,649 deaths.

Current China infections are around 80,000 with 3,000 deaths...not even close!

r0 based spread calculation assumes that there are no measures in place to stop the spread of infection. Since China implemented very strict measures to limit the spread of covid-19 these calculations do not apply.

Calculation works quite well for seasonal influenza since no quarantines are in place to limit spread of the various strains.

Edit - expanding my answer a little bit. Common cold has r0 of 2-3, somewhat comparable to covid-19, with symptoms lasting 1-2 weeks, again comparable to covid-19. It is safe to assume that very few individuals stay quarantined due to common cold. On average, US residents get them 2-3 times a year, it is estimated that people in US get 1 billion colds per year. According to scientific data, 80% of people infected with covid-19 exhibit mild symptoms, it is not likely that they would know for sure they have this infection since probability that it would be diagnosed is very low - diagnoses would require access to pcr kits and medical facilities in US. Compare that to South Korea were testing was available as a drive through test. Couple access issues with the fact that PTO for sickness is not an option for huge percentage of population. Basically, a lot of those infected with covid-19 won't know they have it and will not self quarantine.

amarius wrote:

r0 based spread calculation assumes that there are no measures in place to stop the spread of infection. Since China implemented very strict measures to limit the spread of covid-19 these calculations do not apply.

Calculation works quite well for seasonal influenza since no quarantines are in place to limit spread of the various strains.

This is really important, if we are not going to slow the disease down like China we can expect a much larger spread of the disease. 

Oka everyone take a deep breath. Keep in mind that most of those who are infected show little to no symptoms, now couple that with the lack of testing, and it is very likely that the incidence of infection is much higher than has been documented. The upshot of that is that, factoring in those who are asymptomatic and undiagnosed, the mortality rate is much lower than has been observed, baring any aggressive mutation.