The Nose - reasons why (out of all the walls out there) it's one of the safer (better anchors, well-traveled) and perfect routes to do in the valley, in terms of walls of that size?

Nkane 1 wrote:

I still ride, I just don't use the bike as my standard commute anymore. I also moved closer to work, which helped make that choice easy. But towards the end of my Bay Bridge days, I realized that even with all of my mitigations (not a drop of alcohol, never in the rain, ATGATT, maintaining the bike, being over 30), the cumulative exposure to risk involved in that commute was unacceptable. If I kept doing that ride every day for decades, the question would be not if, but when. 

On a per-minute basis, I think being on the Nose (in good weather, in a team that understands the systems) is safer than being on a bike on CA-17. So I don't think the curves ever cross: if your wife is comfortable with your commute, in my mind, she should welcome your Nose adventure as a less-risky three-day break when she could worry less.

As a corollary, maybe she should worry about your commute more!

All that said, I don't know your commute or your skills - maybe you're going off-peak hours and you're just a better rider than me?

That's awesome you still ride. I was thinking of the same thing and not 100% relying on my bike to get me to work. Our current situation is 1 car and the moto, so we are kind of set in that for now financially speaking. I agree that no matter how much you try to minimize and avoid the risks, they do build up to the point of it being not work it. 

Great thoughts and I agree with you! I know we are in a unique situation and in the end, making her comfortable and not worried is what i desire, so I should maybe put this goal to rest, but it's tough to do that.

And ugh, I wish I was commuting off-peak hours, but my commute is during rush hour every day :/ 

I did Zodiac a month ago, and my girlfriend was stressing HARD the entire month before when i was practicing. And she climbs, and is well aware.

Just don’t get killed by a dropped grigri. 

Eric Roe wrote:

This is the correct answer.  You're falling into a classic Male-Female miscommunication trap.  Logic and evidence are not what she's concerned about, otherwise it wouldn't be an issue (or the issue would be worded differently).  This is about her feelings.  For the same reason I'm worried about my wife flying for work -- even though my logical side knows it's objectively safer.

I don't really have an answer, as my wife feels the same way.  I did Fly Boys last weekend (5.9 sport multipitch) and she was worried even though it's the safest thing I've done this season.  I try to make it a point to contact her with updates when possible, which helps.

If you want to double down on the logic and reasoning, you might mention that the Nose is in the jurisdiction of the best high angle SAR team on earth, with dozens of other climbers within shouting distance at any given time.

I think you're right about the feelings portion of this being expressed. Again, it's hard to communicate the full dynamic but I tried! 

I think it's going to come down to what you said about trying to keep her up to date with my status and updates when possible. I've rapped in on the route a few years ago now, and had amazing reception! So i could probably facetime her at any time haha! Since i'll likely be doing some doubling down on those aspects, that's a great thought about the SAR and other people being so close by. Thanks!

Max R wrote: I did Zodiac a month ago, and my girlfriend was stressing HARD the entire month before when i was practicing. And she climbs, and is well aware.

Just don’t get killed by a dropped grigri. 

You did?! How did it go? Oh gosh - did someone drop a gri gri on you?

Dave Ryan wrote:

- Touchstone (good mix of free climbing and easy aid including the stellar first pitch ladder of desert bolts that will make you high step which is good training all by itself)

- Prodigal Son (a bit more interesting aid, but rarely more than a body length or so from a drilled baby angle desert bolt)

- Spaceshot

- Moonlight Buttress

Thanks for these suggestions Dave! I've always thought doing a wall out there would be so fun! 

Zach Shull wrote:

You did?! How did it go? Oh gosh - did someone drop a gri gri on you?

It went surprisingly smooth, with no nailing,  no falls, and no crying. I had a friend who (on the nose), nearly got hit by a grigri once. 

Zach Shull wrote:... Lurking Fear, Salathe and Zodiac, would you say those are "safer"?

No, they are all about the same.
Although for the Salathe', fewer people will attempt it because of the mandatory 5.8 runout ow on the Hollow Flake.  So there is a self-selection on that route.

What are your thoughts on the boot flake? Does that pose a big risk for climbers?

No.  Why would it?

I think the more you learn about and understand something the less you will worry about the risk. As long as it's something not very risky like BASE jumping, then you may want blissful ignorance. The unknown is scary, and your imagination can run wild. So I'd say help her understand more.

This link puts the risk of death per year about the same for rock climbing and driving in a car. https://www.mountainproject.com/forum/topic/106622011/is-climbing-safer-than-driving 
That's about what I'd guess myself. As long as you don't screw up the risk is pretty low. e.g. 1 in 10,000 chance of death per year.
I'm sure riding a motorcycle is WAY riskier. I also gave up regular bike riding on the street and only do it for recreation. I've had a few close calls on a bike, where a car almost hit me. And I've been in a few accidents in a car that could've killed me if I was on a bike.
I'm sure you can afford a car. Buy a 2004 Civic or Corolla for $3K. Small cars but way safer than a bike.
17 is scary and people drive like idiots on it.

A great thing about the Nose is you can climb to Dolt or El Cap tower in a day and rap off. You'll get an idea of your speed and how long it will take to climb the whole thing. And you'll get the bottom pitches figured out and climb them faster the next time. Just try to do it on a day that it isn't already crowded.

There isn't much risk of natural rockfall on the Nose. But there is a good amount of loose rock at some points that climbers could knock off. But it's like that on lots of routes. The bigger risk for death is screwing up, that's somewhat controllable. Taking a lead fall is always a risk but shouldn't kill you unless you also screwed up, but you could be injured.

Make her a deal. You'll stop commuting on a bike but you'll climb the Nose and you'll actually be at far less risk. Show her the topo and photos of the Nose to get her familiar and excited for you.

Max R wrote:

It went surprisingly smooth, with no nailing,  no falls, and no crying. I had a friend who (on the nose), nearly got hit by a grigri once. 

That's awesome! Nice work! Was that your first route on El Cap? 

Clint Cummins wrote: No, they are all about the same.
Although for the Salathe', fewer people will attempt it because of the mandatory 5.8 runout ow on the Hollow Flake.  So there is a self-selection on that route.
No.  Why would it?

Oh, interesting. What would you suggest for a first route on El Cap?

Zach Shull wrote:

That's awesome! Nice work! Was that your first route on El Cap? 

It was! Most of the pitches all felt safe, with the exception of the Black Tower, which made me sweat. Luckily the fixed gear gods were generous that day. 

Your wife is right, bigwalling is objectively hazardous and you could die, but that being said the deaths per climber hour on the nose are very low.  Contrary to popular belief, there are still some loose blocks perched in inconvenient places on the nose (particularly the grey bands and one at the wild stance).  Nothing to bat an eye at if you're used to that sort of thing, but I'm surprised no one has been killed by other climbers knocking stuff off or dropping stuff given how crowded the route is these days.

Benjamin Chapman wrote: Zach...explain to your wife that you're odds of injury and/or death are greater when driving the freeways of San Jose then climbing the Nose.

your statement is wrong.  (Sorry, it bugs me when people pretend that climbing is an activity with a similar risk profile as driving) 

I compared climbing the nose to driving on a freeway in san jose, using numbers that are extremely favorable to your argument.

I came up with:
4 accident per 100,000 nose trips vs. 0.07 per 100,000 san jose highway 101 trips.

You can check my math below.

best,
matt

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I'll be  generous to your argument and assume that 1000 ascents of the nose a year, and it's been that way for the last 50 years.

Off the top of my head, I can think of 1 fatality and 1 paralysis that have occurred on the route-- I'm sure there have been more severe accidents, but I don't feel like googling.
So, in the safest scenario,  2 serious accidents in 50,000 nose trips.

To compare to driving on the freeways of san jose:
Just highway 101 in the san jose area has in the range of 200,000 trips per day ( dot.ca.gov/programs/traffic…).
In all of san jose, there were 52 traffic fatalities in all of 2018 ( mercurynews.com/2019/05/06/…)
For the sake of your argument, I'll say all those fatalities occured on highway 101.

Zach Shull wrote:

What would you suggest for a first route on El Cap?

The Nose.

mpech wrote: Off the top of my head, I can think of 1 fatality and 1 paralysis that have occurred on the route-- I'm sure there have been more severe accidents, but I don't feel like googling.

My count of fatalities on the Nose is 13 (5 were due to snow/ice).
The denominator of your calculation is still very important and good, though.
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>3-5. The "American Triangle" accident--three guys?    I presume you are referring to the 3-guy fatality while rapping down the Stovelegs on the Nose.  The hanger they were clipped to had a pre-existing crack, and they weren't clipped to the other hanger(s).  It was an old Dolt hanger, which was made of metal that was too brittle.  I have heard they loaded it beyond their combined weight when a haul bag was cut loose, I'm not sure if this was confirmed.  (1978)    It was witnessed by Rick Accomazzo, Dick Shockley, Alan Nelson and Karl Mueller, who were hiking up to the base of El Cap.    Investigated by Tom Rohrer, who established that rappel anchor.    John Dill found a piece of the broken hanger at the base of the wall and had it analyzed by a metallurgist - it was too brittle.

>6-7. Japanese on the Nose (2)    Sadatamo Keiso, Kenji Yatuhashi, November 17, 1984 (ANAM 1985).    They froze on the last pitch (50' from the top), in a snowstorm.

>8. the careening body that John Long mentioned off the Nose (1)    Vague reference.  Do you mean:      Mike Blake, 1973 (ANAM 1974).  He was jumaring the last pitch, Jumar or tie-in failed, but he was tied into the end of the rope.  However, the rope broke.  It was never determined exactly why, because there were no obvious sharp edges.  Perhaps a defect in the rope.

>9-10.  He thought two others on the Nose.
1 - Wolfgang Schrattner, 1987 (ANAM 1988).  Was following the Great Roof pitch on jumars.  He was on the final traverse when he fell when one of his jumars was off the rope.  He was tied in to the end of the rope, but he hit his head on the rock after going 150' and died.
2 - Robert Dietmar Kuhn, 1988 (ANAM 1989).  Was leading Pancake Flake, when he pulled off a 3' loose block.  It cut his rope and he fell to the ground.

12. Jeff Hall, Nose, 1977 (ANAM 1978).  Retreating from the Dolt Hole back towards Sickle Ledge.  Their rope was jammed in the crack below Dolt Hole, he was working to free it, but his locking biner came off the rope, and he fell to the ground.

13. David Kays, Nose, April 1980 (ANAM 1981).  Was soloing the route, got to 250' from the top when a storm hit.  He died of hypothermia.

21. Mariko Ryugo, Ryoichi Yamamoto, Nose, 10/19/2004.   Snowstorm on the night of 10/16, severe continued through 10/19, rescue attempt began (hiking to top in storm/heavy snow) at 4am on 10/19, but pronounced dead by helicopter inspection on 10/20.   They were just above Camp 6.  The team had been on the wall for 6 days.

24. Ryan Gordon, Nose, 5/27/2015.   Rappelling from Camp 6 to a ledge 25' below to retrieve dropped gear.   GriGri was clipped to harness, but rope was not threaded through GriGri.   Fell 200 feet and hit ledge at Camp 5.  Was tied in to the end of the rope so he didn't go any farther.
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from
List of [26] El Cap deaths

To finish Matt's calculation:

Fatality rate per trip:
The Nose:  13/50000 = 52/200000 = .00026
San Jose freeway (car or motorcycle):  52/(200000*365) = .0000007
So, commute safer than Nose, per trip.

Fatality rate per year.  Assume one Nose trip and commute 200 days/year = 400 trips.
The Nose:  52/200000 = .00026
San Jose freeway:  400*52/(200000*365) = .00028
So, about equal, in any given year.

Clint Cummins wrote:
To finish Matt's calculation:

Fatality rate per trip:
The Nose:  13/50000 = 52/200000.
San Jose freeway (car or motorocycle):  52/200000.
So, equal on that basis.

I think you got some scales mixed up-- its 200,000 car trips on highway 101 in san jose per DAY, and its 52 car fatalities in san jose per YEAR. 

The Nose:  13deaths/50000trips = 52/200,000trips.
San Jose freeway (car or motorocycle):  0.14/200,000trips.

(again, this is using numbers that dramatically over-estimates both the # of nose trips and the # of car fatalities)

Right. I'll multiply the denominator by 365.

And I agree, many of the components of the calculation could be improved.
Another is fatality rate for commute by motorcycle vs. by (motorcycle or car).

Don't over think it.  Don't minimize the risks, but neither exaggerate the dangers.  Just go do it because it's the most amazing climb on the planet.  I've returned to the Nose 11 times and will continue to do so until I'm crawling to the base.

At least you'll be in cell phone range the entire climb.

Zach Shull wrote:

Ben - interesting you say that Ben, I ride a motorcycle over hwy 17 every day and I've told her i'm much more likely to die going to work than on the Nose. I think in her mind she would clarify this as a "necessary risk", and climbing to her is an "unnecessary risk".

if you can convince your wife that riding a motorcycle over Hwy 17 between Santa Cruz and San Jose every day is both "necessary" and "safe" then you'll have no trouble selling her on the Nose.  

Boy are you going to feel like a turd if you convince her and still die out there