The Climbing Bubble - Will it burst?

We all know there has been an onslaught of new climbers in the past few years, that is not up for debate.

What I am curious about is whether or not you think the popularity will stick, or if we are just experiencing a particularly high tide of climbers at the moment, and it will retreat in coming years/decades?

Try to support your claims with at least somewhat logical explanations (if you are capable)

Go ahead toss out your opinions MP

keeps increasing.... bc gyms

It’s here to stay. Climbing is not the latest workout or fitness fad which tend to die off after a period of time. 

Let's burst the thought bubble and move on to posting cat, tractor, and bridge photos.

Olympics will probably keep the popularity up. I saw climbing on ESPN a week or so ago so that will probably keep it in people's mind. But not sure if that means gyms will just be busy or if they'll start heading outside too.

Unfortunately climbing is not like the racquetball fad of the 1970s.

The gyms are driving the size of the community. Like any other community, people join, people quit, people stay. There's been enough cycles of newcomers joining and leaving the sport to give us a good view of the long-term dynamic, and the trend is steady and even upward. The big gyms have been around long enough, more are being built, few close down. It will plateau, hopefully it already has, but I don't see it waning.

Regarding skiing, the problem is that it's really expensive. Young people I know cite cost as the biggest reason they don't do it more.
With respect to the original question, I don't think climbing is going to recede anytime soon. It has attractions that other outdoor sports lack. First of all, the barriers to entry are low. A harness, shoes and belay device get you started ($250, tops). Then, additional gear can be added in small bite-size increments ($15-$75), with the only really big expense being a rope (a bit over $100 for a good first one). Plus, the gear is totally cool.
Next, climbing is easy! The human body is designed to do it, and early progression happens quickly, without expensive lessons. Gyms are accessible, both geographically and financially. Gym climbing is social and structurally non-competitive. Anyone can do it, regardless of body type. Good climbers can climb with new climbers without ruining the better climber's session. It's like being a kid again.
For everyone outside the ball and stick crowd, it's a great alternative. Once you start climbing outside, the attributes expand substantially. Lastly, climbing is a lifetime activity. Check the 7000+ comment thread on climbers over 50.

Mike Mellenthin wrote:

I'm not sure I buy climbing being any cheaper than skiing in the long run. I spend more money every year on my climbing gym membership than my ski pass by a lot. And over the years I'm not sure I've spent more money on skis than climbing gear. Fair point that the initial equipment buy is cheaper though.

I think the main difference is that you actually have to get to a ski resort to ski vs. riding your bike to the gym after work.

I'd counter that the folks who buy annual passes, be it for a gym or for skiing, are not typical of the jonny-come-latelys that we fret over exploding our sport. The annual pass crowd are in it for keeps, and probably have been for years. Compare instead the newbies. They can spend $100/day on equipment and lift ticket at the slope or $30 at the gym. Add in that most folks live MUCH closer to a gym than to a ski area, and the likely need for a ski/boarding lesson, and the disparity gets even larger.

Gunkiemike wrote:

I'd counter that the folks who buy annual passes, be it for a gym or for skiing, are not typical of the jonny-come-latelys that we fret over exploding our sport. The annual pass crowd are in it for keeps, and probably have been for years. Compare instead the newbies. They can spend $100/day on equipment and lift ticket at the slope or $30 at the gym. Add in that most folks live MUCH closer to a gym than to a ski area, and the likely need for a ski/boarding lesson, and the disparity gets even larger.

Your ski prices are on the low side. Renting skis/poles/boots will cost $25 - $60. Lift ticket window prices are what has become truly insane. Most are over $100/day, many by a lot. Snowbird is $125, Vail $169, Deer Valley $189, and higher during holiday periods.

I am interested to see the ways in which the surge in new climbers will translate to the styles of climbing people do. Obviously everyone understands that trad, big wall, alpine, and ice climbing have barriers to entry more comparable to skiing then do sport climbing and bouldering--much more expensive, more dangerous, and perhaps most critically much harder to learn. I doubt we are going to see Yosemite start a permitting system for Astroman and Freerider in 10 years once all the gym gumbies learn trad, buy racks, and get good at climbing outside.

Sure, trad moderates will probably get much more crowded in the coming years--all the gym climbers trying to make Double Cross a face climb will probably learn to hand jam eventually--but I suspect the rareified world of hard trad, heinous alpine, and ice climbing in general (not least thanks to climate change) will probably stay roughly the same as it is now in terms of crowds. There's just too many barriers to entry for most people. But you can bet moderate sport crags near cities will be wall-to-wall with climbers from now on. 

Noah R wrote: We all know there has been an onslaught of new climbers in the past few years, that is not up for debate.

What I am curious about is whether or not you think the popularity will stick, or if we are just experiencing a particularly high tide of climbers at the moment, and it will retreat in coming years/decades?

Try to support your claims with at least somewhat logical explanations (if you are capable)

Go ahead toss out your opinions MP

Actually the numbers are down.

https://www.thoughtco.com/popularity-of-climbing-lessons-3972254

We are in the Mother of All Bubbles (MOAB) right now, and when it bursts the climbing bubble will too.
Because survival will occupy a lot more of your time than now.

Climbing will only continue to grow as the sport increasingly embraces, through technical innovations, less & less skilled/committed participants ... also population growth - this will end when the sport itself does: from too many people effing too many places, too prominently ...

Brother Numsie wrote: We are in the Mother of All Bubbles (MOAB) right now, and when it bursts the climbing bubble will too.
Because survival will occupy a lot more of your time than now.

Are you telling us to invest in hard goods such as Cams safeguard against inflation? ;)

Month by month my IG search feed gets filled with more and more photos of “sponsored” good looking chicks who can’t cleanly lead anything more difficult than 5.10. You do the math. 

Anonymous wrote:

Once the disconnect between what's presented to people over IG, vs the reality of what's actually happening at the crags, will filter people away from climbing to just going to Burning Man or something.

This shit is hard and there aren't hot girls in tights and sports bras climbing all over the place.

Yeah, I would agree with that to some extent. More to your point, usually anything over a mile approach to a crag weeds out most of these people. However, if you look across more sports and athletics such as surfing, skateboarding, crossfit, cycling, shit even golf, this tends to be a signal that the boom in popularity is far from leveling out let alone declining. 

Noah R wrote:

Are you telling us to invest in hard goods such as Cams safeguard against inflation? ;)

Yes, then when you get into that MOAB, and you discover all those cracks in your life, you can begin to plug that shit up and greatly improve the quality of your life.

When Freedom of the Hills was first published climbing and alpining was restricted to a very few. With the advent of sport climbing and gym climbing it has now become available to the "mainstream".  The established areas continue to become more populated. Schools have added climbing to their sports curriculum.  So while multi-pitch trad climbing may not grow exponentially I believe you will continue to see a growth in popularity for many years to come.  

But since this is an internet forum if the above logic does not persuade you then this should, rock climbing Barbie doll on sale now.

Dallas R wrote: When Freedom of the Hills was first published climbing and alpining was restricted to a very few. With the advent of sport climbing and gym climbing it has now become available to the "mainstream".  The established areas continue to become more populated. Schools have added climbing to their sports curriculum.  So while multi-pitch trad climbing may not grow exponentially I believe you will continue to see a growth in popularity for many years to come.  

But since this is an internet forum if the above logic does not persuade you then this should, rock climbing Barbie doll on sale now.

Someone should really check Barbie's system..

Kelley Gilleran wrote:

Someone should really check Barbie's system..

Biner gates look a little wonky too

edit: i had to look it up on amazon, and the one there is a bit worse (gates open outward)

Jaren Watson wrote:

Do you even climb? It’s called, check your safety!

https://unreasonablydangerousonionrings.files.wordpress.com/2014/09/vertical-limit-2000-720p-brrip-x264-yify_1.gif