Fatal accident at Tahquitz today

Tradiban wrote:

In addition the idea that there was enough of a torrent to push a large block off from above the climbers is very unlikely as there’s not enough surface area that high up to collect a powerful enough water force or any boulders dependent on soil for their positions. I have actually been caught in an intense storm in the exact spot as the indicated location of the accident.

Furthermore, “acts of God” explanations and that climbers were simply in the wrong place at the wrong time are extremely rare and more applicable to less stable environments than are found in that section of Tah.

What area of Tahquitz has the most rockfall danger during a heavy rain? I would've thought Pine tree ledge would actually be a pretty bad place to be since the last pitch of the Trough is so broken up, but I haven't been up there in a while and can't remember how loose it is. 

Tradiban wrote:

Showers on Tah are regularly “intense” but usually brief and I would implore anyone caught in one to ride it out instead of hastily retreating.

In addition the idea that there was enough of a torrent to push a large block off from above the climbers is very unlikely as there’s not enough surface area that high up to collect a powerful enough water force or any boulders dependent on soil for their positions. I have actually been caught in an intense storm in the exact spot as the indicated location of the accident.

Furthermore, “acts of God” explanations and that climbers were simply in the wrong place at the wrong time are extremely rare and more applicable to less stable environments than are found in that section of Tah.

The hail and rain lasted for more than an hour and there were waterfalls and rivers gushing down the rock. We waited for the rain to slow down or subside to rap off and that took more than an hour.

Pugnacious Slab wrote:

What area of Tahquitz has the most rockfall danger during a heavy rain? I would've thought Pine tree ledge would actually be a pretty bad place to be since the last pitch of the Trough is so broken up, but I haven't been up there in a while and can't remember how loose it is. 

I’d say pine tree ledge and also the entire area under Consolation with all those death bombs up there

Tradiban wrote:

I agree, it's unlikely given their sizes that they decided to simul but possibly in a rush to get down they decided to do so (Edit: saw some pics of the guy, he was big no way they planned on a simul). It's unlikely a tat anchor failed as there isn't one in the location they fell from and slings/tat generally don't just fail. 

Slinging a horn/boulder to which one was clipped and the other was rapping on and then the horn failing seems more likely. As Bruno notes knowing if the attached climber had one or two strands in their rap device will solve the simul or not mystery.   

I'm aware of one slingable horn/boulder in that location that I know was loose, after the steepness of Piton Pooper there's a bit of a scramble before you go left to URA, it is/was right there. It would seem like a good place to belay and subsequently bail off and I don't think it's looseness would be obvious. Also, that spot is strangely void of good gear placements besides around this boulder I'm talking about, in a rush I could definitely see someone gearing it up for belay/rap. 

I am sure there may be more knowledgeable folks out there, but I don't know anyone that knows this mountain as well as Tradban.  I've only been to that spot once, when doing DD/PP/URA, and I was wondering if there was anything that they could rap off without leaving gear, as that seemed to be the most likely scenario given the information available.

I will make one correction though.  Tat can most certainly fail.  While it might not fail often, I've unfortunately been present when it did fail.

My thinking after seeing the Piton Pooper picture higher up and actually being there several times, there is really not much at the base of Piton Pooper that could come down. Further right continuing on the Trough, there is some loose stuff, but on top of the Piton Pooper pitch, there is little. The climb toward Upper Royal Arch goes left and as Tradiban pointed out, there are some small low angle areas of loose stuff, but once you get to the base of the URA, it is all solid. The stuff coming from the lower angle area above and left of Piton Pooper, would come down way left of it. 

If they indeed rapped off, the likely way would be to leave hardware as most of the Piton Pooper and URA is a pretty solid crack climb with not much broken bouldery stuff. 

The thunderstorm at 11:45 AM might have been a contributing factor. It was pretty strong here in the Banana Belt of Idyllwild and lasted (here) about 25 minutes. 

Nick Goldsmith wrote:

Tim. joe simpson and partner were dangling from a knife blade and apparently fighting like cats and dogs to be first to get plucked by the helicopter... 

This story is recounted in This Game of Ghosts, for anyone interested. 

Is this related? Former Cowboys TE Gavin Escobar dies in rock climbing accident

If so, this was posted on Reddit under the article: 

"Full report has not been released, but from a couple witness statements we can piece together a likely scenario. They were 3-5 pitches up the wall when a very heavy thunderstorm broke out. People described the rock as "turning into a waterfall". They were found with a rappel set up attached to the rope but no anchor attached. Witnesses say they saw a large block fall with them. My guess is they wrapped the rope around a large block directly to rappel down (no rap anchors as the routes top out) and the block pulled, either from the weight of rappelling or because the rain fall triggered rock fall. This one hits home for me because it wasn't inexperience or poor judgement that caused the accident. The decision to bail off a seemingly secure large block in an active thunderstorm is a decision any one of us could have made. Mountains are dangerous places. Sometimes you can do everything right and still take the big fall."

Chris Fedorczak wrote:

Is this related? Former Cowboys TE Gavin Escobar dies in rock climbing accident

Yes, Gavin Escobar and Chelsea Walsh. 

That Reddit post illustrates perfectly the degrading effect forum speculation has on facts.

apogee wrote:

That Reddit post illustrates perfectly the degrading effect forum speculation has on facts.

Whether we are saying it or not the scenario the Reddit post outlines is what the vast majority of us are thinking happened. In my earlier post I wrote some potential lessons based on this scenario. I didn't theorize in my post because everyone should be thinking this through on their own. Speculation is a very useful and healthy thing to do privately. I actively encourage everyone to do it. Do it again each time we get new facts and again (ad infinitum) when we get the report.

Let's be real, until we have more info, this is by far the leading theory, by a huge margin. 

Matt Himmelstein wrote:

I am sure there may be more knowledgeable folks out there, but I don't know anyone that knows this mountain as well as Tradban.  I've only been to that spot once, when doing DD/PP/URA, and I was wondering if there was anything that they could rap off without leaving gear, as that seemed to be the most likely scenario given the information available.

I will make one correction though.  Tat can most certainly fail.  While it might not fail often, I've unfortunately been present when it did fail.

Thanks for the accolades although I don't want to make this into some contest about who knows more about Tahquitz. 

I will clarify my tat comment, I would never rely on a single piece of webbing unless I placed it and I know all its history. That said I have relied on nests of tat many times and felt confident in them.

Chris Fedorczak wrote:

Is this related? Former Cowboys TE Gavin Escobar dies in rock climbing accident

If so, this was posted on Reddit under the article: 

"Full report has not been released, but from a couple witness statements we can piece together a likely scenario. They were 3-5 pitches up the wall when a very heavy thunderstorm broke out. People described the rock as "turning into a waterfall". They were found with a rappel set up attached to the rope but no anchor attached. Witnesses say they saw a large block fall with them. My guess is they wrapped the rope around a large block directly to rappel down (no rap anchors as the routes top out) and the block pulled, either from the weight of rappelling or because the rain fall triggered rock fall. This one hits home for me because it wasn't inexperience or poor judgement that caused the accident. The decision to bail off a seemingly secure large block in an active thunderstorm is a decision any one of us could have made. Mountains are dangerous places. Sometimes you can do everything right and still take the big fall."

I take issue with that statement (I know you didn't make it). 

Tahquitz is a pretty safe place to climb and there's not alot on it that comes without warning signs, however it is not a forgiving place. It stands on the precipice between "crag" and "mountain", and unfortunately people tend to treat it as the former. It is also easily accessible and is very near a very large metro area making it seem too much like a day out clipping bolts. 

It's a disservice to anyone seeking to learn from the accident to classify it neither as inexperience or poor judgement, just an "act of God".  It would be poor judgement to sling the rope around a large block during a storm and effectively rely on a single anchor point for your life. It is not a decision I would have made no matter how the block looked. In general any block small enough to put your rope around (and allowing the rope to be pulled) isn't stable enough. A tree with a root system and rounded edges would be a much better choice.

What I think the over arching point is, is that you shouldn't take any chances while facing a tough situation in climbing. Got a "bad feeling" about something? Listen to that feeling. Not sure that that anchor is good? Don't use it or back it up and lose some gear, it's worth it. Don't rush anything and if you feel panic, STOP what you are doing and reassess. Sometimes the best decision is a few moments of pause away. 

Seems to me many witnesses to falling deaths claim to have seen a block or a pack or something - as if it’s a traumatic response in the brain to replace a human with some other object.  If/when someone identifies the actual rock, then I’ll believe that part of the story.

Tradiban wrote: Tahquitz is a pretty safe place to climb and there's not alot on it that comes without warning signs, however it is not a forgiving place. It stands on the precipice between "crag" and "mountain", and unfortunately people tend to treat it as the former. It is also easily accessible and is very near a very large metro area making it seem too much like a day out clipping bolts. 

this is definitely a major issue at tahquitz

That Reddit post was one thing…but this ‘article’…from a legitimate climbing media source…just keeps on proving the point. Speculation just dilutes truth…and Internet forums only magnify this phenomenon.

https://gripped.com/news/two-rock-climbers-die-at-tahquitz-rock/

https://www.newsmax.com/thewire/gavin-escobar-nfl-dead/2022/09/30/id/1089861/

James W wrote:

Seems to me many witnesses to falling deaths claim to have seen a block or a pack or something - as if it’s a traumatic response in the brain to replace a human with some other object.  If/when someone identifies the actual rock, then I’ll believe that part of the story.

I agree, people always seem to see a “refrigerator sized block”, that’s a pretty big block, something that big usually doesn’t cut loose and I can tell you there definitely wasn’t anything of that size around were they fell.

As any sort of investigator knows witnesses are notoriously unreliable so I wouldn’t believe that part unless a missing block is identified.

fridges fall all the time.  just because you didn't see it dosent mean it won't or didn't happen. I had a roof fall off of a climb where the roof looked solid enough that I put two epoxy bolts in it. a section 17ft long 6ft wide and 4ft thick just fell off one night during a rain event.  regardless of how big the rock was it seems likly that there was a rockfall event while one person was rappeling and the other was waiting to rappel. we don't know if the rockfall was the anchor or if rockfall hit the anchor and caused it to fail. 

Nick Goldsmith wrote:

fridges fall all the time.  just because you didn't see it dosent mean it won't or didn't happen. I had a roof fall off of a climb where the roof looked solid enough that I put two epoxy bolts in it. a section 17ft long 6ft wide and 4ft thick just fell off one night during a rain event.  regardless of how big the rock was it seems likly that there was a rockfall event while one person was rappeling and the other was waiting to rappel. we don't know if the rockfall was the anchor or if rockfall hit the anchor and caused it to fail. 

And just because you had one fridge fall doesn’t mean it happens “all the time”.

I won’t believe it until I see obvious evidence of it. Regardless, I can tell you a random piece of rock did not fall on them from above because I know the area intimately.

Ultimately anyone is free to believe what they want until irrefutably proven otherwise but I urge everyone to remember that their safety is on themselves and they have the power to control their destiny 99.999999999% of the time.

So treat every anchor and risk you take climbing with the utmost respect, alot of the time it’s the only thing between you and The End. 

Arnt you the expert.  I knew my climb intimately and the whole damn roof fell off.   It is absolutely possible that the rain event caused an unlikely rock to fall regardless of weather or not the expert said it was impossible.   Witnesses said there was rockfall,. without a complete investigation we don't know if it was human caused or a weather / geological time event. Experience tells me that it is more probable that the falling block was a failed anchor but again without a thorough investigation we don't know that to be  fact. 

It is pretty clear that they were repelling and that this was because of the rainstorm.  Gordon Graham's High Risk/Low Frequency and Discretionary Time model fits this scenario.   Climbers most of the time don't come to the crag to repel.  We spend most of our time climbing, well, climbing.  When climbing the first protection is not falling.  On most climbs we do not fall, thus we never test the system.  In repelling we test the system and that, and that we don't do it as much, is why we see so many deaths from repelling.  This scenario add discretionary time to the incident.  They were being rained and hailed on, lightning was in the area, massive amounts of water may have been flowing down on them.  This can lead to a party feeling rushed.  So this can be called a High Risk/Low Frequency with little Discretionary Time incident.  Interestingly this is much more dangerous than free soloing by a professional climber who does it every day.  The Reid Yosemite Guide book describes this on how more climbers who have the rope on their back fall to their death than ones who go out intentionally to free solo.

I think the take away, no matter the actual chain of events, is if you are doing something that you don't do a lot, and you're feeling rushed or tired, slow down!  Verbalize what you are doing and check every link in the chain.  Weight the system BEFORE you unclip from the anchor.  In flying incidents they say it is not one thing that leads to a incident, it is a chain of events.  This incident probably is just that.  The chance of rock fall, or lightning strike, or drowning on the side of the rock is very unlikely.  But feeling rushed in unusual situations should scream to slow down, double check, and verbalize every part of the links between you and the ground.

Gordon Graham: High Risk/Low Frequency.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Og9Usv82CdU