Coronavirus on a crag that is in the sun

Let’s keep troubleshooting Joe.  I’m not yet convinced that he knows what he’s talking about...
:)

Joe Prescott, you get yourself a Covid Norris award:

saith the prophecy: where rises a Trump, so will rise a Fauci to meet it

Mark Starr wrote: Hmm... Sunlight kills the virus...

MaYbe thEreS a WaY to sHinE It oN tHe b0dY, oR mayBE iN the BodY? SciEntiSts sHoulD looK iNto THat.

https://jezebel.com/sunbathe-your-asshole-for-wellness-1840031856 you’re welcome.

Ted Pinson wrote:

https://jezebel.com/sunbathe-your-asshole-for-wellness-1840031856 you’re welcome.

that's just what I call a drunken thursday afternoon in Joshua Tree

To be clear, if you go climbing outside right now you will get Covid19 and you will die. you have been warned.

Aerili wrote: Joe Prescott, thanks for the information. Some of us definitely appreciate it.

The people who say definitive and highly simple stuff like "there's no way in hell you can get it from xyz, for sure xyz kills it, your odds of getting it are so low as to be xyz"-- particularly when "it" is new in the human popluation and hardly studied by actual experts who do this as their life's work-- are signaling that they understand science the least of anybody and should be ignored the most.

It's the equivalent of people saying, "if someone runs by you breathing heavy you're gonna get it, if someone climbed a route 2.45 hours and coughed in the hold you're gonna get it, if you get it you're gonna die, or kill everyone you love, if you pump gas in mollala on your way to Smith you're going to kill everyone"

Ted Pinson wrote:

https://jezebel.com/sunbathe-your-asshole-for-wellness-1840031856 you’re welcome.

Oh man, I'd better get on that...

Ted Pinson wrote:

One thing to be aware of is that viruses mutate.  So while you’re absolutely correct that most of the time when a person gets sick they will be immune to further infections of the same disease, this does NOT mean they will be immune to future mutations of it.  This is why you have to get a new flu shot every year and why people are concerned about a possible resurgence in the fall.  Most models suggest that the virus will mutate much slower than something like the flu (hence why SARS didn’t come back for a few decades) but it’s possible it could be quicker.

I fully expect that Corona will mutate.  The common Cold mutates every year, maybe more often, and is also a Corona virus.  However, a resurgence this Fall is predicated on loosening quarantine restrictions this summer and allowing people to interact as before, not on mutation.

The same thing happened in 1918/19 when the flu virus "migrated" to South America's Winter and then back again for the Northern Hemisphere's Winter.  As I pointed out earlier, there's not a lot that's NEW unless you don't know your history.

Alejandro T wrote:

Joe Prescott gave an excellent answer to all of this (thank you Joe). I'm just curious about one  thing: why do you think you have more knowledge about this than people who have been studying viruses for years? It's not really something you can figure out using "common sense".

Why?  Because I've been studying HISTORY for many years.  I've also read books about viruses and pandemics, not just media sound bites and Youtube links.  There have been many deadly pandemics over time that have killed a lot more people.   Hell, the flu kills 20-50 thousand people every year and you never hear about it.  Traffic accidents kill 40-60,000 and you never hear about it. This pandemic isn't all that different, it just has a lot more media coverage.  And the media gets a lot of stuff wrong and, as far as I can tell, only puts medical professionals on the screen when they are all gloom-and-doom.   

No one talks about the approximately 15 million Americans who already contracted Covid-19, had no, mild or moderate symptoms, stayed home, recovered and are now immune.  Seen that story anywhere?    If Covid is so deadly, how and why do you think that happens?   Why does one person not even have symptoms and another dies?   That would be very useful information but does the media cover that?  NO.   (And just BTW, if you want "deadly" try Ebola.)

Morons like Trump say Corona-19 "came out of nowhere."  WRONG.  There's a shitload of information out there about how and why viruses jump species.  Ebola, HIV, Flu, Corona ALL come from other species, and human activity is the root cause and it's completely predictable.  Go look that one up.

The media is totally focused on promoting hysteria, always has been.  New York City is the worst place you could possibly live in a pandemic like this, and therefore the media focuses on it.   But to say that one size fits all is disingenuous.  

So here's a question for you, Alejandro, and others: Why is there a Cold and Flu SEASON every year?

John Byrnes wrote:

I fully expect that Corona will mutate.  The common Cold mutates every year, maybe more often, and is also a Corona virus.  However, a resurgence this Fall is predicated on loosening quarantine restrictions this summer and allowing people to interact as before, not on mutation.

The same thing happened in 1918/19 when the flu virus "migrated" to South America's Winter and then back again for the Northern Hemisphere's Winter.  As I pointed out earlier, there's not a lot that's NEW unless you don't know your history.

John, the influenza virus is not a corona virus. However both are responsible for common cold cases. And there is a lot new, thus why it is being call the novel corona virus. In fact, many of the recent corona virus are new (with human ones starting in the 60s)

John Byrnes wrote: The media is totally focused on promoting hysteria, always has been.  

Yep, and many people buy into the hysteria. There are several here on MP. If you question the virologists, you are an idiot and a denier.  How dare you question the experts!

Watch, even this post will raise the ire of some of them.

John Byrnes wrote:

Hell, the flu kills 20-50 thousand people every year and you never hear about it.  Traffic accidents kill 40-60,000 and you never hear about it. This pandemic isn't all that different, it just has a lot more media coverage.

Just. Stop. With. This. Bullshit. Reasoning.
https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/04/coronavirus-kills-more-americans-in-one-month-than-the-flu-kills-in-one-year/

National Review is hardly left leaning or "the media".

And remember that the IMHE model (recently revised upward to 74000 deaths) only goes through August - meaning it's currently predicting only the first wave deaths.

Not only does the new coronavirus have the potential to infect many more people than the seasonal flu does, it appears to kill a greater percentage of those infected. You don’t need to rely on various statistical models to come to that conclusion. You just have to look at the reality of what has already happened around the world and in our own country. 

We are talking not about statistical models of what might happen in the future but about the reality of what has already happened. The virus has killed 100 Italian doctors. That doesn’t happen during a bad flu season. The virus has killed 30 employees of the New York City Police Department. That doesn’t happen during a bad flu season. 

John Byrnes wrote:

Why?  Because I've been studying HISTORY for many years.  I've also read books about viruses and pandemics, not just media sound bites and Youtube links.  There have been many deadly pandemics over time that have killed a lot more people.   Hell, the flu kills 20-50 thousand people every year and you never hear about it.  Traffic accidents kill 40-60,000 and you never hear about it. This pandemic isn't all that different, it just has a lot more media coverage.  And the media gets a lot of stuff wrong and, as far as I can tell, only puts medical professionals on the screen when they are all gloom-and-doom.   

This virus has killed >50,000 people in just over a month. With extensive social distancing measures. The flu pales in comparison, and comparing it to traffic doesn't make any sense because car accidents are not contagious.

No one talks about the approximately 15 million Americans who already contracted Covid-19, had no, mild or moderate symptoms, stayed home, recovered and are now immune.  Seen that story anywhere?    If Covid is so deadly, how and why do you think that happens?   Why does one person not even have symptoms and another dies?   That would be very useful information but does the media cover that?  NO.   (And just BTW, if you want "deadly" try Ebola.)

Morons like Trump say Corona-19 "came out of nowhere."  WRONG.  There's a shitload of information out there about how and why viruses jump species.  Ebola, HIV, Flu, Corona ALL come from other species, and human activity is the root cause and it's completely predictable.  Go look that one up.

Not really sure what your point is here. Of course this is not as deadly as ebola. The media doesn't answer those questions because nobody knows the actual answer. There's been hypotheses about viral load, but with conflicting evidence (here and here, for example). I don't know of any other credible hypotheses about why some people are more affected. We don't even know for sure why older people have more severe cases. This is just how this stuff works: it takes a long time to get answers.

As far as "no-one talking about 15 million Americans" etc.,  can you share where you got those figures from? The US has done just over 5 mil tests, so what you're saying is impossible to know.

My understanding is that antibody testing on a limited sample of people in NY suggests that sars-cov-2 may be more infectious than previously thought, or that it's been around since very early on and thus was allowed to spread to ~15-20% of people around the infection hotspots (which would be high-density places with significant international travel). It also suggests the IFR may be lower, but still 5-10 times higher than the flu. If you combine those two facts, i'm glad we've had social distancing policies.

Speaking of which... my partner works with homeless people in Boston, who of course have not been distancing because they often live in crowded shelters. They've done universal testing in 3 separate occasions in 3 different shelters. The rates of positive cases were 40%, 35% and 50%. This thing spreads like wildfire.

The media is totally focused on promoting hysteria, always has been.  New York City is the worst place you could possibly live in a pandemic like this, and therefore the media focuses on it.   But to say that one size fits all is disingenuous.  

So here's a question for you, Alejandro, and others: Why is there a Cold and Flu SEASON every year?

AFAIK (not a virologist) the influenza virus' coating degrades faster in warmer temperatures, therefore it spreads more during the winter months in the northern hemisphere. Doesn't mean you can't get it in july. How is this relevant?

FrankPS wrote:

Yep, and many people buy into the hysteria. There are several here on MP. If you question the virologists, you are an idiot and a denier.  How dare you question the experts!

Watch, even this post will raise the ire of some of them.

This is a viewpoint I really don't get. No one is saying you're an idiot or a denier if you question things... but faced with evidence that your assumptions or beliefs may be incorrect, presented by someone who is a) an expert in the matter; b) doesn't stand to gain from lying to you... why would you not re-evaluate those assumptions/beliefs/models? 

John Byrnes wrote:

Why?  Because I've been studying HISTORY for many years. [....]   Hell, the flu kills 20-50 thousand people every year and you never hear about it.  Traffic accidents kill 40-60,000 and you never hear about it. This pandemic isn't all that different, it just has a lot more media coverage.  And the media gets a lot of stuff wrong and, as far as I can tell, only puts medical professionals on the screen when they are all gloom-and-doom.   

[...] 

So here's a question for you, Alejandro, and others: Why is there a Cold and Flu SEASON every year?

John.

Look, I don't mean to say that in a condescending manner. I'm not an epidemiologist, nor a virologist, nor even a biologist. I'm not a doctor either. I don't pretend to understand everything in that whole story.

But re-reading back on your previous comment, you show a worrisome tendancy to wildly extrapolate relevant/semi-relevant pieces of knowledge way beyond its applicability. I'm not saying everything you wrote doesn't make sense... but you're giving observations & links of dubious strength a lot more weight than it seems it would deserve. I think it's great that we all personally think about this, try to come up with our own worldview about all this to some extent. I'm not saying we should just buy whatever is fed to us without question. But there people who actually know what they're talking about, and they would/do disagree with a lot of what you wrote in this thread. I don't know what's your line of work in this life. But whatever it is, how would you react if some dude came up to you, spit out a number of things which you either know are flat out wrong or at best unproven, and when you mention your doubts about his statements he answer "well, I'm not a [insert here line of work], but I'm interested in [insert here vaguely related topic]."

In other words: in the eyes of many here, I think you're making a fool of yourself. Now, do whatever you wish with this comment...

Marc801 C wrote: Just. Stop. With. This. Bullshit. Reasoning.
https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/04/coronavirus-kills-more-americans-in-one-month-than-the-flu-kills-in-one-year/

National Review is hardly left leaning or "the media".

And remember that the IMHE model (recently revised upward to 74000 deaths) only goes through August - meaning it's currently predicting only the first wave deaths.

No bullshit.  I said 20-50,000 deaths from Flu and I was correct.   From the CDC, go look it up:  CDC influenza 2018-19  The data for previous years is there too.

"CDC estimates that the burden of illness during the 2018–2019 season included an estimated 35.5 million people getting sick with influenza, 16.5 million people going to a health care provider for their illness, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths from influenza (Table 1)."

So tell me Marc, which words do you not understand in that sentence?   This happens every year and you never hear about it in the media.  And no, the National Review is RIGHT leaning in a big fucking way.  They love the Moron in Chief and probably are injecting themselves with detergent this very moment.

John B. You really need to tap out of this one. Maybe you can go grab a beer with FrankPS and talk about how you guys are better informed than people that clearly have more knowledge and some experts here. Your posts don't make sense.

More than twice as many people have died of COVID19 (60k, and this is only confirmed, surely far more) than flu. This has only been in the last 6 weeks. Do you think the flu causes the same problems? Many countries/states have, or have had, hospitals overrun, many doctors/nurses have died, etc. You wonder why this is making news? Are you serious?

You think history is going to tell you everything you need to know? How do you think that history is made? Research has to happen now, to be tomorrows history. SARS-CoVs are very different from flu. No one knows how long immunity might last. This might all happen again and coincide with flu season in the fall. But wait, lets just look at the history books and articles (that BTW, were written by the journalists you are calling BS on).

Mr, you clearly aren't versed in this field, spouting incorrect 'science' that is somewhat believable, is worse than saying nothing.

Alejandro T wrote:

This is a viewpoint I really don't get. No one is saying you're an idiot or a denier if you question things... but faced with evidence that your assumptions or beliefs may be incorrect, presented by someone who is a) an expert in the matter; b) doesn't stand to gain from lying to you... why would you not re-evaluate those assumptions/beliefs/models? 

First, many people have used the terms "idiot" and "denier."

Second, the "experts" have one thing to do: stop the virus. At all and any cost. They don't have worry about being unemployed or losing their business. So the experts recommend the most conservative actions to stop this virus. As they should.

The experts have been wrong on several things. For example, with few exceptions, the hospitals have not been overwhelmed.

Next, the models have been egregiously wrong. Granted, they are doing the best they can, but they have way overestimated the deaths, even accounting for social distancing.

This virus isn't smallpox or the plague. It's only deadly to a very small percentage of the population. I'm not going to do the comparisons to the flu, but they are there ("Oh, but we don't have a vaccine.")

It's a good thing our elected leaders, to varying degrees, make their own decisions. They are using input from the experts, but the elected Ieaders realize there is more to address than just beating the virus.  I think they want the virus to be "manageable," not gone. Waiting for there to be zero new cases would be unrealistic. The experts are giving their recommendations, regardless of the effects on the economy and livelihoods of people. And I don't fault them for that.

Here's an analogy: A military general will tell you how to win the war. That's good, right? Well, what if the president and the people don't want to continue? What if we would rather have a truce than a victory? What if the president decides, against the general's advice, that he is just going to withdraw troops? He hasn't followed the general's advice, because he is looking at it from a different perspective.
.
Blindly following the experts can have adverse effects. I hope this answered your question. You probably don't agree, but I tried to give you a sincere answer.

Now, I am ready to accept my Internet savaging! I'm not looking to debate this, but to express my viewpoint and to answer your question.  I'm sure many will tell me why I'm wrong, because they can't help themselves. It's important to them to win the debate (not to me!).

Edit: I have been following the stay-at-home order and social distancing. Not for much longer, I hope.

Edit #2: I wrote this in the context of reopening the economy. Not to criticize the measures taken, but the need to continue them vs. reopening sooner, rather than later.

Inslee just announced golf, hunting and fishing are back online. I think we can climb using a reasonable approach.