State-wide Shelter-in-place Lock-down in Effect As Of Now for All of California

Buck Rio wrote:

I think you are missing perspective here. Dysentery infects millions and millions of people every year, killing millions of children. 

We don't do shit about it. 

With all of the harm done to the economy already from Covid 19, we could have put in a new well in every little town in Africa and India...

Why would we want to let another disease run rampant (one that we don't have a cure or vaccine yet for) in the world killing people every year? 

Buck Rio wrote:

I think you are missing perspective here. Dysentery infects millions and millions of people every year, killing millions of children. 

We don't do shit about it. 

With all of the harm done to the economy already from Covid 19, we could have put in a new well in every little town in Africa and India...

Apparently it hasn't hit close to home for you yet.

Kawk Airbone wrote:

Why would we want to let another disease run rampant (one that we don't have a cure or vaccine yet for) in the world killing people every year? 

I don't think we can "stop" this disease any more than we can stop the common cold. We can only slow it down a little. 

This disease, like every other disease in history, will sweep through our ranks and kill a bunch of people, then we learn to live with it, and realize afterward what hubris we had by thinking we could stop it.

Buck Rio wrote:

I think you are missing perspective here. Dysentery infects millions and millions of people every year, killing millions of children. 

We don't do shit about it. 

With all of the harm done to the economy already from Covid 19, we could have put in a new well in every little town in Africa and India...

I'm sorry... I have to speak up... I think you are missing perspective here. I'm an epidemiologist focusing on preventing child mortality from diarrheal diseases. We don't do enough to prevent it, that's true. But this is a false equivalency. We are at a pivotal moment in mitigating the exponential spread of a pandemic that threatens to overwhelm healthcare resources in rich and poor countries alike. We do not know if the financial fallout from preventative social distancing measures is greater than the financial fallout from if we sat back and let a large percent of people over 60 die untreated. We do know that the death toll will be less if we slow spread as we work on treatment strategies and a vaccine. Which will likely help Africa and India as much as it will help America. I hope you and others will consider helping the most vulnerable among us by taking appropriate measures to prevent spread.

So how long are we going to be willing to live this isolation? If in a year it pops up again and a vaccine hasn't been created we going to do this again? What about the next disease? I understand 2 weeks and I am doing my part of social distancing and staying home/climbing in isolated areas.

I am not going to do that for 6 months though and I won't do it every year. I am with Buck on this, we cannot live in fear. I am a high risk individual but I refuse to sacrifice months to living in fear of a disease.  

Don't you think that the pleb infighting is exactly what the virus wants?!

Dave K wrote: Do you have any actionable suggestions?

Buck Rio: Not my line of work...

Yet you criticize the recommendations of the experts who's line of work it actually is. Seems pretty dumb to me.

Buck Rio wrote:

I don't think we can "stop" this disease any more than we can stop the common cold. We can only slow it down a little. 

This disease, like every other disease in history, will sweep through our ranks and kill a bunch of people, then we learn to live with it, and realize afterward what hubris we had by thinking we could stop it.

That's a nice soundbite, but doesn't reflect the reality mankind's greatest battles against disease- Small Pox, Measles, wide spread death by preventable infections due to man made antibiotics. I'm not sure why you're using reductive language like "'stop'", "only a little", and "like every other disease", and equating it with he common cold (do you know the mortality rate of "the common cold?" please enlighten me).

chris tregge wrote:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/us/coronavirus-in-seattle-washington-state.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage 

How old are you Buck?  I wonder how you will fit into the new normal, which appears to be an algorithm to determine who gets medical care and who is allowed to die, coming soon to a hospital near you.  

This is fear mongering... Italy is the only area that this has happened and I have yet to see solid numbers on how many it has happened to. Key words you left out in your message that the article has "may be" "in the event of"... This is literally fear tactics. 

Here is an expert saying pretty much the same thing I am. ​Statnews​​​

John P.A. Ioannidis is professor of medicine, of epidemiology and population health, of biomedical data science, and of statistics at Stanford University and co-director of Stanford’s Meta-Research Innovation Center.

Buck Rio wrote: Here is an expert saying pretty much the same thing I am. Statnews

John P.A. Ioannidis is professor of medicine, of epidemiology and population health, of biomedical data science, and of statistics at Stanford University and co-director of Stanford’s Meta-Research Innovation Center.

Shhhhhh only fear is allowed Buck!

Jon Hillis wrote:

This is fear mongering... Italy is the only area that this has happened and I have yet to see solid numbers on how many it has happened to. Key words you left out in your message that the article has "may be" "in the event of"... This is literally fear tactics. 

I know you won't believe it and probably won't even read all of it, but I'll still try. New England Journal of Medicine:

Buck Rio wrote: Here is an expert saying pretty much the same thing I am. Statnews

John P.A. Ioannidis is professor of medicine, of epidemiology and population health, of biomedical data science, and of statistics at Stanford University and co-director of Stanford’s Meta-Research Innovation Center.

A response to that article by an equally well-regarded expert (whose position reflects the majority of experts): link

Andrew Mertens wrote:

A response to that article by an equally well-regarded expert (whose position reflects the majority of experts): statnews.com/2020/03/18/we-…;

I can't open that link

Marc801 C wrote:

I know you won't believe it and probably won't even read all of it, but I'll still try. New England Journal of Medicine:

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2005492

Shockingly I read the whole thing because I am willing to learn. There were no numbers and no solid data just discussion of the action. It was even mentioned that most would not survive the prolonged intubation hence why they were not intubated. Now did you read the above link? Or just post your own mocking me?

Buck Rio wrote:

I can't open that link

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/18/we-know-enough-now-to-act-decisively-against-covid-19/ 

The original link provided had an additional space in the HTML code. the above link will work

It's the Harvard vs Stanford face off!

The orig linked article is authored by John P. A. Loannidis a Stanford researcher who pioneered the study of metaresearch. From a cursory search it would appear his raison d'etre is showing how findings are not based upon  appropriate data sources

The Secondary linked article is authored by Marc Lipsitch, a Harvard researcher specializing in the fields of epidemiology and infectious diseases focusing upon the spread of epidemics.

Who to believe? The guy who sees everything through the lens of analysis is never right or the guy who sees everything through a lens of the spread of epidemics?

No seriously, who to believe? I don't know. 

Kevin DeWeese wrote: It's the Harvard vs Stanford face off!

The orig linked article is authored by John P. A. Loannidis a Stanford researcher who pioneered the study of metaresearch. From a cursory search it would appear his raison d'etre is showing how findings are not based upon  appropriate data sources

The Secondary linked article is authored by Marc Lipsitch, a Harvard researcher specializing in the fields of epidemiology and infectious diseases focusing upon the spread of epidemics.

Who to believe? The guy who sees everything through the lens of analysis is never right or the guy who sees everything through a lens of the spread of epidemics?

No seriously, who to believe? I don't know. 

Great point, Kevin. Also, it's pretty hard to be critical of the statistics about a disease that only came to our human attention, what, 3 or 4 months ago. Oh, golly, the meta-data aren't fully mature yet. Better not act! 

Yeah, we will get stuff wrong in taking action. In fact, if we get it right, it will APPEAR that we got it wrong. That's one of the strange paradoxes of crisis management. Better cautious than reckless, IMO.

TR Fellhung wrote:

When you are sick do you go to the doctor that has made a career out of writing academic papers about how other doctors are often wrong

...or do you go to the doctor that will give you a diagnosis and treat you even when they are not 100% certain?

I actually just rub some chalk on it and continue on as normal.