Climbing gym and coronavirus

while i hate people blowing shit out of proportion, for those who think this is trivial and wont hit close to home, my wife works with a girl whos mother was just put on quarantine because she just tested positive with it......

The issue is the possibility of future contagions that could be worse.  This is an opportunity to practice and experiment with containment strategies.  Civilization collapse is more likely to result from a new disease with a high communicability and fatality rate than from climate change, nuclear war, a big asteroid strike or zombies.   The current reaction may seem disproportionate to the threat, but it is a necessary drill.  Can we sufficiently slow the spread to allow for the development of an effective vaccine or treatment before most of the population is exposed?  

COVID in Italy currently has a 5% mortality rate.  HOWEVER the median age of death is 80.  So for us young, healthy folk the risk is marginal, but if you get sick and it kills your grandma, you’d feel like a big dingus.  The big threat here is stress on the healthcare system and economic repercussions for quarantine.

Out of proportion?  What then is proportionate?

Is it out of proportion for the assisted living facility where my Mom lives to stop allowing on site out of town visitors like me?

Is it out of proportion for businesses to give their employees the option of not traveling for a while?

Or is it just anything that hinders the free flow of money that is out of proportion?

Yeah - outages of TP, bottled water, and paper towels seems a bit out of proportion.

Bill Lawry wrote: Out of proportion?  What then is proportionate?

Is it out of proportion for the assisted living facility where my Mom lives to stop allowing out of town visitors like me?

Is it out of proportion for businesses to give their employees the option of not traveling for a while?

Or is it just anything that hinders the free flow of money that is out of proportion?

Yeah - outages of TP, bottled water, and paper towels seems a bit out of proportion.

Let's not cloud the issue with common sense.  Also, to any other people that would like to insert facts, this clearly isn't the place.

Christopher Smaling wrote:The big threat here is stress on the healthcare system and economic repercussions for quarantine.

It is a balancing act between those two.  Slow it down by quarantine to spread out the burden on the healthcare systems while not throttling the economy “too much”.  

J A Said it well. There could be some valuable lessons learned out of this one .... if we don’t instead turn it into just a political tug of war.

Dylan B. wrote: For a bunch of folks who make risk evaluation a hobby, there‘s a lot of incoherent risk evaluation going on in this thread.

You be quiet or you’ll get the shaft

Maybe this isn't really a problem, but rather part of Mother Earths solution...

Judging by the number of climbers who wear their climbing shoes into the bathroom and/or don’t wash their hands afterward,  if you aren’t already getting sick at the gym your chances aren’t any higher that you’ll get sick this time.

Sorry if this has already been posted in this thread but someone else posted in another thread and it seemed quite relevant:
https://sg.news.yahoo.com/covid-19-gym-says-two-more-cases-linked-to-it-ceases-operations-for-now-072953316.html

Comparison to SARS, MERS, & H1N1

Marc801 C wrote: Comparison to SARS, MERS, & H1N1

Mortality rate is one part of the equation- contagion rate is the other (and it looks like COVID is more contagious than SARS, MERS, or H1N1 by a significant margin).  If 3% of everyone dies, that is a bigger deal than 66% of 15,000 (like Ebola).

 Statistics never really capture the nature of disease - with COVID it seems like the big risk here is for the elderly and infirm.  It’s interesting to think of the repercussions of 20% of the population of 60+ year olds dying.

Christopher Smaling wrote:

 It’s interesting to think of the repercussions of 20% of the population of 60+ year olds dying.

I'll finally be able to buy a house!!!!

https://www.climbingbusinessjournal.com/what-can-my-climbing-gym-do-about-covid-19/?mc_cid=e8626690e5&mc_eid=a60ff86326

Christopher Smaling wrote:

Mortality rate is one part of the equation- contagion rate is the other (and it looks like COVID is more contagious than SARS, MERS, or H1N1 by a significant margin).  If 3% of everyone dies, that is a bigger deal than 66% of 15,000 (like Ebola).

 Statistics never really capture the nature of disease - with COVID it seems like the big risk here is for the elderly and infirm.  It’s interesting to think of the repercussions of 20% of the population of 60+ year olds dying.

+1 x 100%

Dylan B. wrote:

Apples and oranges. Most of the bugs your neighbors are carrying around in their gut are already living in yours. You’ve almost certainly never been exposed to This new COVID virus.

Sorry, forgot to use my sarcasm font.

Last I saw the death rate in WA is about 13%.
 22 out of 162. Probably so high since they aren't testing very many people yet.
I think I will get one last gym climb in today, then its outdoors from now on.
I will stay away from the skin shredding fist crack.

Do they make anti-viral chalk?
Is calcium carbonate a good or bad medium for virus? Magnesium?
Maybe some tincture of benzoin even if not using tape?
Will there be a "Buff" with integral filter mask?

Heartbreaking stories coming out of Italy: twitter.com/jasonvanschoor/…

"We’ve stopped all routine, all ORs have been converted to ITUs and they are now diverting or not treating all other emergencies like trauma or strokes. There are hundreds of pts with severe resp failure and many of them do not have access to anything above a reservoir mask.

Patients above 65 or younger with comorbidities are not even assessed by ITU, I am not saying not tubed, I’m saying not assessed and no ITU staff attends when they arrest. Staff are working as much as they can but they are starting to get sick and are emotionally overwhelmed."

Dave Olsen wrote: Last I saw the death rate in WA is about 13%.
 22 out of 162. Probably so high since they aren't testing very many people yet.

That’s a part of it, but the bigger factor is that the outbreak in WA started in an elder care facility where the population is far more likely to have a fatal outcome.  This is a part of the problem with the “I’m young so I’m not worried” attitude - you might not die, but you might get your parents or grandparents sick with fatal consequences.

Gumby the White wrote:

I'll finally be able to buy a house!!!!

Except that the bank that was going to fund your mortgage might be out of business.