Red rocks, 30% chances of rain for Christmas

People, specially locals, can someone in the community forecast when it’s going to be good for climbing in most of the RR areas after the rain forecasted for Christmas?

It’s only a 30% and only that day, but the rain has been pretty steady in the forecast.

I know the website https://wetrockpolice.com/redrock

But they will give me information only after the rain.

cheers 

There is literally NO way to determine what will be good to climb with a forecast of rain during Christmas this far in advance let alone knowing without going out and seeing the actual weather in red rocks. It will all depend on how much rain falls, where it falls and how much sun/wind/temp the days after the rain are.

Once again the adage of the 24-48 hour minimum that gets hounded on everywhere is not cut and dry. Too many people use it as a defense to climb damp rock just cause they can't wait on their trip to Red Rock, and then people complain why the route/boulder feels so hard or why its changed? Point to your fellow climbers who can't wait for the rock to dry. 

Please leave it alone and wait longer, this past Thanksgivings rainstorm was record breaking and yet people will go climb and then get rescued for their horrible decisions (Olive Oil Fools) or when a pro climber comes and sends yet there is barely any call out for such poor form cause once again they are on a trip and a pro. 

If you can't pass the time while being in Vegas of all places and can only climb wet rocks. Seek help.

Unless you find a way to time travel nobody can answer this question.

From the National Weather Service this morning:

Models continue to hone in on an impactful system around Christmastime. Latest guidance has precipitation chances moving in as early as Tuesday and sticking around through Christmas day. Forecast PWAT and IVT values are near the max of December climatology, so moisture will not be a limiting factor. The record December PWAT value in Vegas is 1.00" set in early December 2014. Looking back at that date, Vegas only got 0.16" which is a nice rain but nothing crazy (not even in the top 50 wettest December days). This is a nice reminder that moisture is only part of the rainfall equation. Forcing (lifting mechanism) is crucial as well and the strength, track, and timing of the forcing with the upcoming system remains uncertain. Mountains benefit from the ever-present forcing that is orographic lift, and will almost certainly fair well with this system due to the strong moisture flux. The biggest question for our mountain locations is snow level. With deep moisture often comes a deep layer of warm air. Looking back at the early December 2014 event, Mt. Charleston (town) received nearly 2.00" of rain and ZERO snow. This could very well be the same scenario here, as forecast snow levels range from 6.5-7.5kft in our northwestern areas to 9-10kft in our southeastern locations. We`re still over 5 days out from the bulk of the precipitation so things can, and will, change. But the key takeaways should be that weather impacts are growing more likely around the holiday. Those with travel plans should be prepared for wet conditions on most roads and wintry weather above 7-8kft.

(source link: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=VEF&issuedby=VEF&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1)

It is nice when they take the time to explain the factors affecting the forecast.

PWAT and IVT are essentially measures of the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere that could potentially fall as precipitation. This looks like a atmospheric river/pineapple express situation which usually results in significant precipitation. I am expecting rain at Red Rock from this system but as it says in the forecast above, it could change. (I am far from an expert.)

Forecasts for the Spring Mountains and Red Rock are usually wrought with uncertainty because the systems come in from the Pacific Ocean, where weather observations are limited to just a couple weather buoys. Then, after they hit land they can change their behavior as they run into the several mountain ranges including the Sierra. 

Artedemagiawrote:

It’s only a 30% and only that day, but the rain has been pretty steady in the forecast.

It's possible you are looking at the forecast for Las Vegas.  This is the forecast for Blue Diamond, which, in my experience, is more like what will be happening in the Canyons.  In fact, it's often worse in the Canyons.

The entire west coast is about to get hit with another atmospheric river. I've seen a forecast predicting 1-2 inches of rain in Las Vegas as a result of this system, which is a lot of rain for them. 

Normal Customerwrote:

Please leave it alone and wait longer, this past Thanksgivings rainstorm was record breaking and yet people will go climb and then get rescued for their horrible decisions (Olive Oil Fools) or when a pro climber comes and sends yet there is barely any call out for such poor form cause once again they are on a trip and a pro. 

Clark County needs to just start offering free heli rides to all tourists.  Probably be more efficient for the tax payer with less drama involved.  Wet clothes in the desert, can't do the walk off.  That is as low of a bar as I have ever seen yet.  Only at Red Rock NCA.

From the National Weather Service this morning:

It is nice when they take the time to explain the factors affecting the forecast.

It would be nicer if they knew the difference between "fair" and "fare."

Thank you all for your nice comments!

So, yesterday (the 24th) there was a precipitation of about 0.1 inches in RR, and there is no more rain in the horizon for about a week.

I am planing to climb 48 hours after the rain (or drizzling), would that be plenty of time considering the small amount of precipitation?

Thank you again!

Red Rock Visitor Center logged 0.60 Inches of Rain since the start of the rains on the 23rd. 

RRKN2 NWS

Normal Customerwrote:

Red Rock Visitor Center logged 0.60 Inches of Rain since the start of the rains on the 23rd. 

RRKN2 NWS

Dang! How long do you think it will take to dry?

https://wetrockpolice.com/redrock

Artedemagiawrote:

https://wetrockpolice.com/redrock

That takes the data from the RRKN2 NWS Station at the Red Rocks Visitor Center. So beware when it says its been X amount of days since it rained when it could have literally rained in Black Velvet or in Kraft but missed the visitor center. Yesterday the whole red rock range was covered in a cloud and I suspect the weather station wasn't getting nearly as much rain as it did in the canyons. All from personal experience hiking around before a storm arrives in the canyons.