Possible instance of community spread of COVID-19 at the Solar Collector on October 24th

First, a story:

Four friends and I spent a weekend in the Red several weeks ago. All of us were fairly cautious about covid, and none of us displayed symptoms before or during that weekend. On the afternoon of October 24th, we spent the last 2 or 3 hours of the day at the Solar Collector crag. Things were a bit crowded, but the "6 foot rule" was fairly easy to maintain. Nobody wore masks. At the end of the day, my fried noticed a climber on the ground near us (near Mona Lisa Overdrive) coughing. My friend wasn't sure how long that climber had been standing there etc, and I never heard the coughing myself, but my friend was immediately worried. Three of the five of us got covid immediately following the trip, and my friend who noticed the coughing was the first to start displaying symptoms (on Tuesday).

We believe that this was likely an instance of community spread of covid-19 at an outdoor climbing crag (although obviously we cannot prove it).

The purpose of telling this story is not to criticize anyone or demand that climbers take immediate action to stop the spread or anything like that. I'm sure the cougher (if they were the source) did not suspect they had covid, and likely had just started experiencing symptoms. And in any case, my own group (a fairly large party) was climbing at a popular red river gorge crag on a nice fall weekend -- we knew there was at least some risk. Rather, the purpose of telling this story is twofold:

(1) To ask the mountain project community if anyone else tested positive for covid after being at Solar Collector that day (October 24th). My friends and I are just curious how this happened, and more information will make the experience more of a learning opportunity for the climbing community. If you are not comfortable posting under here, feel free to direct message me -- I will update the thread accordingly while keeping you completely anonymous.

(2) To suggest that climbers consider wearing masks while belaying and moving about at more crowded crags. Look, I know nobody will wear masks while climbing. But it really doesn't cost much to put a mask on while belaying, and it really might prevent you from getting or spreading covid. Before this experience, I believed that being outdoors somehow made it impossible to get covid. Unfortunately, that's just not true, and now I have (likely) first hand evidence of this. In the future, at bare minimum I am going to stack the deck in my favor and wear a mask.

Feel free to post any related anecdotes below.

Edit: I'm collecting all our bits of "evidence" to explain in one place why we believe outdoor spread at the crag is the most likely way our group got infected (although of course we do not know just how likely this is). For simplicity and clarity, I'll label our subgroups X (2 people, first to display covid symptoms after the trip), Y (1 person, second to display covid symptoms), and Z (2 people, did not get covid).

• We stayed at Lago Linda's, we never ate at a restaurant, and each group was pretty cautious before and during the trip.
• Nobody we know who wasn't on this trip got covid.
• The timing works out decently. First symptoms (subgroup X) was three days after Solar Collector. The most recent reasonably likely exposure before our red trip was the weekend before, also while climbing outside, which would've been 10 days before symptoms. From my understanding, 3 days is a bit short of average, but 10 days is a pretty long. Nobody else X climbed with before got covid.
• Exactly the people who climbed Mona Lisa Overdrive got covid (subgroups X and Y). We think that the "crag cougher" was on the same side of the crag most of the time. One person from Z belayed MLO once, but wore a mask most of the time. Climbing and belaying take a long time, a lot of "high effort breath", etc.
• We had a relatively low level of contact within our group (never sharing an enclosed space). 
• Moreover, the contact is not consistent with who did and didn't get covid. For example, people from group X and Z did a 3 pitch climb together on the last day of our trip.

If you don’t mind me asking, where were you staying? Did you eat/stay at Miguel’s? Did you eat out while on your trip?

I’m just curious, bc you zero in on the crag as the source (because of the coughing, I get it!), but I wonder if there were other options for transmission, too? 

I agree with Lena.  The incubation period for the virus is up to 2 weeks.  Obviously I don't know where you've been, but even if you're being careful there are plenty of other places that your group's Patient Zero could have gotten it ahead of time.  I'm not saying it's impossible they got it at the crag, but is that really the most likely explanation?

Of course there are a lot of unknowns, and we can't say anything with certainty (unless possibly someone else comes forward). 

However, we stayed at Lago Linda's, exactly because we thought Miguel's might be risky during covid. And we never ate out. Nobody we know who wasn't on the trip got covid. And finally, the three who came down with covid were exactly the three who climbed Mona Lisa Overdrive. Of the two who didn't come down with covid, one never went near MLO except to leave the crag, and one only belayed MLO while wearing a mask.

All of this together makes us think the cougher at the crag is the most likely vector (although indeed, we are not sure how likely this most likely possibility is)

Your thinking seems sound Clay, but you’ll never know for sure,

heal fast.

Its  also entirely possible, and perhaps more likely, that  one of the people in your group had covid prior to the trip; and was asymptomatic.

What about the timing of it? If you call the day at Solar Collector “day zero”, when did the symptoms start?

I hope everyone is well again now. 

Did your group carpool together?   I find it much more likely there was someone in your group who had it prior to the trip and were asymptomatic yet you likely rode together and contracted it on the ride.  Catching the virus outside seems less likely to me than catching it in a car where everyone is in close quarters with one another and there is very little airflow.

Thats my 2cents as a armchair epidemiologist.

First symptoms in the group started Tuesday the 27th, 3 days post-solar-collector. That person had also gone climbing the weekend before (10 days before symptoms), but hadn't done much of anything else, and none of their climbing partners from the previous weekend got covid. While the incubation period is up to 14 days, I think it is usually less (though I'm not sure whether 10 or 3 days would be more likely).

Intra-group spread was definitely possible. However, by my logic this makes it only more likely that the source was at the crag. For example, on the last day of our trip, one person who got covid (indeed, the first to experience symptoms) and one who did not (who was never near Mona Lisa Overdrive) did a multipitch together, and were hanging out on the same ledges for a while. This leads me to believe that nobody in the group was infectious yet by Sunday (or at least not highly infectious), though they were already infected.

However, the above logic on intra-group spread is confounded by the fact that we were trying, ish, to distance from ourselves as well. On Saturday, we carpooled to get down rough roads to the PMRP, but with 4 people (2 who got covid, 2 who did not) in a big car with masks on and the windows down (that was a bit brutal). On the other hand, throughout the weekend we were also cooking extensively at the same table, sharing snacks, belaying each other, doing multipitches, etc.

Everyone seems healed up fine now :)

I would urge anyone spending significant time with people unmasked to get regular tests, and encourage your friends to do so as well.  My wife has had long-term smell issues that make most food disgusting to her.  It really really sucks and it's the least-bad covid symptom.  Tests are mostly free and until recently, were very easy to get.  

Clay Thomaswrote:

However, the above logic on intra-group spread is confounded by the fact that we were trying, ish, to distance from ourselves as well. On Saturday, we carpooled to get down rough roads to the PMRP, but with 4 people (2 who got covid, 2 who did not) in a big car with masks on and the windows down (that was a bit brutal). On the other hand, throughout the weekend we were also cooking extensively at the same table, sharing snacks, belaying each other, doing multipitches, etc.

Does that mean that one of the people who got covid was never in a car (or tent) with anyone else in the group? If so, that would seem to suggest that outdoor transmission happened, in some way. I'm not sure what to think of the specific mechanism you're proposing (3 out of 3 people getting covid from somebody coughing nearish them outside for what sounds like a pretty short period) because it's so far from any other case study I've heard of, but it sounds like you might have an example of outdoor transmission even if the coughing person didn't have covid.

Glad you're all OK.

We had three cars and three tents, of three groups of people who essentially live together. No pair of people who are not in the same sub-group were together in the same (sealed) car or same tent. Two of those sub-groups got covid, and one did not.

David Ywrote:

... it sounds like you might have an example of outdoor transmission even if the coughing person didn't have covid.

Yes, that's a very good point. Perhaps I should soften my overall message from "you might get covid at the crag" to "you might get covid even if you try to do everything right". 

However, we do still think the crag is the most likely culprit. Exactly those who climbed Mona Lisa Overdrive got covid, despite essentially the same (relatively low) level of contact between all members of the friend group. While we were obviously outside, climbing and belaying (without a mask) takes a pretty long time and involves heavy breathing, and we think the cougher was near the MLO side of the crag most of the time. The first symptoms arrived two days after the friend group dispersed, which (from google) seems to be on the lower end of the possible "presymptomatic" infectious period (I'm very far from an epidemiologist, but this paper mentions 1-3 days as the likely infectious period before symptom onset). It does not seem possible that this was a case of completely asymptomatic transmission (i.e. transmission where the vector never goes on to display symptoms) because the two friends who did not get covid had a collective 5 negative covid tests in the two weeks after our trip.

Maybe you and your group could have not traveled from New Jersery to solar collector during a pandemic... Trying to pin this on a single guy coughing outside is silly.

Lee County, KY has the second highest weekly infection rate in the country. 

Guys, just don't go to crowded crags. Solar Collector has been a well-known shitshow for years, and in 2020 if I saw even one other car parked there I'd go somewhere else. Sheesh.

Wow I was one comment away from having my account deleted for speaking rudely to people. Now like the rest of cancel culture I guess if the admins and Nick agree you can say whatever you like. You guys are so awesome for calling this dude and his group assholes and so much better than them I bet.

Robert Prassewrote:

Maybe you and your group could have not traveled from New Jersery to solar collector during a pandemic... Trying to pin this on a single guy coughing outside is silly.

New Jersey was a hot spot back in the spring. Now, you are more likely to leave rural KY with a case of COVID than you are to bring it from New Jersey to KY.  

Hson Pwrote:

Lee County, KY has the second highest weekly infection rate in the country. 

Where are you seeing that at? I am here now and shit seems to be hitting the fan.

Lena chitawrote:

New Jersey was a hot spot back in the spring. Now, you are more likely to leave rural KY with a case of COVID than you are to bring it from New Jersey to KY.  

Lena, saying anything remotely positive about New Jersey is a violation of mountaproject's terms of service.

Pnelsonwrote:

Lena, saying anything remotely positive about New Jersey is a violation of mountaproject's terms of service.

My bad. Will not repeat. 

Dane Bwrote:

Where are you seeing that at? I am here now and shit seems to be hitting the fan.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/?itid=sf_coronavirus

You have to scroll down a bit. 

Clay, thank you for posting this. I think it's important to discuss possible cases of community spread at busy crags because so many people think if you're outside, you can't catch it. At this point I think we know that outdoor spread is rare (because the virus is dispersed by wind and killed by UV light so it doesn't linger long) but it can and does happen.

For folks who may have missed it earlier this year, the Access Fund did a webinar with a panel of experts, including an expert in contagious disease who is also a climber, about best practices to avoid catching and spreading COVID while climbing. Here's a link to an article summarizing the webinar. https://www.climbing.com/news/climbing-during-the-pandemic-access-fund-provides-expert-guidelines-for-outdoor-climbing/. Bullet points from the article are copied below.

I'd add they also said don't carpool with people outside your bubble / household. Being in an enclosed space breathing the same air over time with an infected person (even an asymptomatic one) is probably the most likely way you'll catch it. If you decide to carpool, open your car windows, increase the air flow with the fan, don't shout at each other or talk in each other's faces (basically don't talk a lot - play a podcast or something), and wear masks in the car.

• If you have symptoms stay home
• Avoid crowded spaces—this means crags, trails, and parking lots. Be prepared to turn around if you arrive at a crowded area
• Maintain a safe physical distance (six feet or more) from those who are not in your group
• Only climb with partners within your isolation bubble who you have already been in contact with
• Wear a face mask while you’re gearing up to climb, though you are more than likely OK to remove it once on the rock
• Sanitize your hands after touching your gear and between climbs
• Only climb at local areas to prevent bringing the virus from a densely populated area with a large number of cases to a more remote area
• Climb within your limit to avoid injury that would put a search and rescue team at risk and add to the burden of the local medical facilities.