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Lost Chance aka The Natural  

YDS: 5.10 French: 6b Ewbanks: 20 UIAA: VII- ZA: 19 British: E2 5b

Type:  Trad, 1 pitch, 90'
Original:  YDS: 5.10 French: 6b Ewbanks: 20 UIAA: VII- ZA: 19 British: E2 5b [details]
Page Views: 165
Submitted By: rocknice2 on Jun 9, 2014

You & This Route  |  Other Opinions (6)
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BETA PHOTO: Lost Chance (AKA The Natural) with first draw.

  • Access is limited in the spring and summer due to peregrine falcon nesting; so there are some closures. Checking with the Adirondack Climbers Coalition or the NYDEC can provide the closure status.
  • Peregrine closures and approach trail issues MORE INFO >>>

  • Description 

    This is the left-hand route going up the Neurosis' black water streak. Hard climbing past two high bolts up to a discontinuous thin finger crack. Finish on a ledge with a bolted anchor shared with the following route.


    Stick clip the first bolt. The second bolt is not an easy clip either.
    Micro to finger cams. The pro is better than it looks from below.

    Photos of Lost Chance aka The Natural Slideshow Add Photo
    Rock Climbing Photo: The black water streak of Neurosis.
    BETA PHOTO: The black water streak of Neurosis.

    Comments on Lost Chance aka The Natural Add Comment
    Show which comments
    By rocknice2
    From: Montreal, Quebec
    Jun 9, 2014

    This route is 5.10a in the guide book but I found it to be much harder at about 5.10c
    By Derek Doucet
    Jun 9, 2014

    To avoid confusion, a point of clarification might be in order: The route described here is often referred to as The Natural, though as I understand it that may not be the name given by the FA team. It is useful however, since there is a full length route over on the slabs called Last Chance.
    By Jon Clark
    From: Philadelphia, PA
    Jul 8, 2014
    rating: 5.10a 6a 18 VI+ 18 E1 5a

    I think route submitters should enter the grade given in the guide. If they feel it is hard for the grade or sandbagged then state as much. I'm sure the authors got local consensus on the grades.
    By Derek Doucet
    Jul 18, 2014

    Interesting, Jon. I actually feel like posters should initially assign whatever grade they feel appropriate and then let the consensus evolve. However wide a net guidebook authors cast (and Jim and Jeremy definitely worked hard at this)to assign grades, routes change, opinions vary, and so on. I think a forum like this one has the potential to draw from a wider cross section of the community and is ideally suited to consensus building. Of course this theory only holds up if sufficient numbers of people submit their opinions, something that may not happen at a relatively infrequently climbed place like Poke-o.
    By Jim Lawyer
    Jul 22, 2014
    rating: 5.10a 6a 18 VI+ 18 E1 5a

    Hi Derek, I don't have much of an opinion where the initial grade comes from. I will say that even though guidebooks like ours try to get the grades right, there's always somebody that thinks they're wrong.

    But regarding consensus grades on MP, I have a feeling that people only set the grade if their opinion differs from that which is posted. I don't think this is a true consensus since the only votes are the ones from people that disagree with the posted grade. Suppose the route is listed as 10a, and a pool of 100 people look at it. Suppose 98 people agree with the 10a rating and do nothing, and two people disagree and set the grade to 11a. The average is now .10b/c even though 98 people agreed with the original 10a rating.

    Which leads to the issue of timing. Suppose you do a route and agree with its posted grade (so you do nothing), then never look again. After a while the consensus changes to 10c, but since you don't ever visit the page again, you don't notice the grade drift. So your opinion about it being 10a is lost.

    If everyone that did the route "voted" on the grade (whether they agree with the posted grade or not), then these problems would go away and consensus would mean more.
    By rocknice2
    From: Montreal, Quebec
    Jul 22, 2014

    You have a good point Jim. None the less, I found this route was harder than 'Home Rule'. Could be that I'm a foot shorter than you or that I partially plugged the little pod with pro. That one move above the second bolt was the crux for me.
    By Jon Clark
    From: Philadelphia, PA
    Jul 30, 2014
    rating: 5.10a 6a 18 VI+ 18 E1 5a


    If I hop on a route onsight, don't hit a sequence right, am having an off day, am too tall, too short, am not familiar the the style of climbing, etc. and then decide to enter that route on MP it's okay for me to enter whatever grade I choose? Can I add a letter grade or even as much as a number grade? The grade initially entered is already somewhat of a consensus unless it is a first ascent. If that consensus then evolves within the broader climbing community of MP then I think that's fine. What I don't agree with is entering an established route into MP and assigning whatever grade you choose. That reflects the submitter's opinion and not the current consensus.
    By Derek Doucet
    Aug 1, 2014

    Hey Jim,

    Good point. I hadn't considered self-selection bias. I tend to offer an opinion on the grades of all routes I comment on, whether I agree or disagree with the one originally assigned. I was working under the assumption that others did the same, but as you rightly point out, there's no real basis for such an assumption. I stand corrected!



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