Oak Flat News
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ClimbandMine wrote: Good luck with that - Reid's from Nevada, and is pro-mining.I'm not telling him not to mine. I'm not tell him to mine. I'm speaking to the current Hr1904 bill in the House and the one McCain plans to introduce to the Senate that going under the guise that this mine will create jobs to AZ. Also, that the current bill is worse to climbers and the environment than the last bill (HR 2509/SB409) that got shot down last year. |
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THIS MAY BE THE LARGEST LAND MASS LOST TO CLIMBERS IN THE HISTORY OF THE WORLD. |
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BGBingham wrote: Fred's first stab at the value of the ore is quite conservative. Of course, Dave's listed factors above enter into the business plan. Then there are those unforeseen costs much like those incurred by poor management decisions such as Massey's in keeping two sets of records to dodge MSHA regulators and killing 29 miners in the process. Or not being able to work out the technology which seems to be happening at another recently initiated mine in AZ. Can't make money at $4 copper. Or lost opportunities because management throws a collective tantrum and dismantles a state of the art smelter and misses out on $4 copper. Oh yeah, these mining companies really know what they are doing.You are obviously a student of economics yourself, ace. |
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ClimbandMine wrote: You are obviously a student of economics yourself, ace.It isn't called the dismal science for no reason Dave. |
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Fred AmRhein wrote: Climb and Mine, A couple of numbers tossed out with respect to the potential value and economic impact of the mine: (both sources are Resolution or those hired for their purposes) "$3 Billion copper mine" (No supporting data provided on how this number is defined or determined) aznews.us/mine_pushes_land_… "boost the state economy by $46.4 billion over the life of the project:" azcentral.com/arizonarepubl… What do you come up with? It seems like you have some pretty good sense of how to do the analysis and it might be helpful for the public to know what the expected profit/year might be? Thanks, Fred$3 billion sounds like an NPV - but at what price and discount rate assumptions? $46 billion is not a valuation, it is an economic benefit - taxes, wages, sales, and indirect jobs... I'm not going to try to do an outside analysis because it will be wrong. I don't have enough information to do a proper job of it. |
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ClimbandMine wrote: $3 billion sounds like an NPV - but at what price and discount rate assumptions? $46 billion is not a valuation, it is an economic benefit - taxes, wages, sales, and indirect jobs... I'm not going to try to do an outside analysis because it will be wrong. I don't have enough information to do a proper job of it.Climb and Mine, I think many people have similar questions. Unfortunately, the clear data is rarely forthcoming. Certainly your analysis wouldn't be right in terms of 100% probability/accuracy but your numbers could certainly help the conversation. So, why not give it a shot for discussion's sake? Resolution has published data on tonnage rates/day in the past that others have used so that could give you a good place to start. (see savethesantacruzaquifer.inf… for instance ) Also, as I recall, most of the time they've discussed $1.30 copper as a long term price and a cost/ton in the range of the mid single digits, $4-$6 per ton or so, maybe less? I found this web site rather interesting in terms of what goes into different mining technique cost assessment ( pubs.usgs.gov/usbmic/ic-929… ) Hope it helps. Fred |
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Fred AmRhein wrote:Per a link on Resolution Copper Mining's website on May 13th, 2011, at about 3:00 pm shortly after Rep. Gosar introduced the Oak Flat privatization bill on their behalf: * [The Gosar legislation] removes a 95-acre parcel of RCM land known as The Pond and $1.25 million earmarked to fund improvements, development and maintenance of recreational facilities on the Pond parcel. However, RCM is working directly with the recreation community to ensure this funding is still made available for these purposes. securearizonasfuture.com/bl… (Note: The web site link no longer leads to a statement that reads this way. It was changed shortly after being posted and no longer provides these details) Per the corporate QCC Website tonight (6/23/2011): *"Queen Creek Coalition (QCC [,Inc.] ) has been working on an agreement with Resolution Copper Mining (RCM) pertaining to regional climbing issues. We hope to be able to share the results of this effort in the near future, but we are dealing with local representatives of a giant corporation and it has been difficult and time consuming to make progress. We are not at the point where we have an agreement in place that we can share. When we do, QCC will announce that fact promptly on this site." Furthermore, per the corporate, non-profit QCC website (FAQ's, Oak Flat Land Exchange item) *"QCC is in the process of negotiating an agreement with RCM that it hopes will provide significant benefits to climbers. Until such an agreement is reached, QCC remains opposed to the exchange. However, if QCC determines that it is in the best interests of climbers to reach an agreement with RCM that requires QCC to abandon its opposition to the land exchange, then QCC will enter into such an agreement. Fred Note: The information summarized and excerpted above was found as indicated by the sourcing information provided via the public internet. The website securearizonasfuture.com's registrant via whois.com is indicated as Adam Hawkins. A quick google search reveals that an Adam Hawkins works for Resolution Copper and it is my understanding that they are one and the same. (See resolutioncopper.com/res/me… for instance) Furthermore, I am not a current, active member of the incorporated, non-profit QCC.HOW DID I MISS THIS. '$1.25 million earmarked to fund improvements, development and maintenance of recreational facilities on the Pond parcel. However, RCM is working directly with the recreation community to ensure this funding is still made available for these purposes.' WHAT THE ****? WILL THE QCCINC. GET THAT MONEY ON BEHALF OF CLIMBERS? WILL IT GO TO THE ACCESS FUND? BOTH THESE GROUPS WERE AGAINST SIGNING OFF ON A 'DEAL' A FEW YEARS AGO. I'M SO CONFUSED ON THIS. I WANT STRAIGHT ANSWERS!!!!! |
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Hmmm.... it seems a private llc company (QCCinc) is making private deals with a private mine company on our recreational public issue. |
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Per the QCCinc~ |
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Per QCCinc~"There is no Queen Creek climbing area to which the access is not at least partially under the current or prospective control of RCM. If QCC in the hope that by some miracle the clock will be turned back to 1999, the likely result is that climbing would end at Oak Flat,, Euro Dog Valley and The Mine Area" |
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Fred AmRhein wrote: Climb and Mine, I think many people have similar questions. Unfortunately, the clear data is rarely forthcoming. Certainly your analysis wouldn't be right in terms of 100% probability/accuracy but your numbers could certainly help the conversation. So, why not give it a shot for discussion's sake? Resolution has published data on tonnage rates/day in the past that others have used so that could give you a good place to start. (see savethesantacruzaquifer.inf… for instance ) Also, as I recall, most of the time they've discussed $1.30 copper as a long term price and a cost/ton in the range of the mid single digits, $4-$6 per ton or so, maybe less? I found this web site rather interesting in terms of what goes into different mining technique cost assessment ( pubs.usgs.gov/usbmic/ic-929… ) Hope it helps. FredYes, clear data is rarely forthcoming, because private entities do not release cost data, other than in 10K publications. This is rarely detailed down to the single-mine operation in enough detail to do much good. Different operations, and different types of operations, have very different cost profiles. The publication you cite is out of date and not particularly applicable to an high tonnage, rubber tire, automated operation. It is laid out in the style of a Climax or San Manuel, not a Palabora or Resolution. The general cost/ton you quote is also about 20 years out of date. As I said, I am not going to put something out there because I am not party to enough detail (and yes, I know what the Resolution design throughput is) to do a cost analysis justice. |
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ClimbandMine wrote: The publication you cite is out of date and not particularly applicable to an high tonnage, rubber tire, automated operation. It is laid out in the style of a Climax or San Manuel, not a Palabora or Resolution. The general cost/ton you quote is also about 20 years out of date. As I said, I am not going to put something out there because I am not party to enough detail (and yes, I know what the Resolution design throughput is) to do a cost analysis justice.Climb and Mine, So, in your opinion, given your view of the data that the publication presents and the advances made in recent decades, would the cost per ton have gone down or up? Generally speaking of course. Also, given that the cost/ton has a negative slope in general, it seems reasonable to surmise that the cost/ton would be less not more than indicated given that the Resolution tonnage is greater, trendwise anyway? Lastly, it would be of general public interest on the Resolution design throughput if you'd care to share for discussion's sake? Thank you in advance, Fred |
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ClimbandMine wrote: Yes, clear data is rarely forthcoming, because private entities do not release cost data, other than in 10K publications.Private entities seeking public giveaways involving valuation calculations place themselves in a position where this information needs to be public. Otherwise how can an equitable trade be made? This is the number one reason that the land swap is premature. Resolution can't say what it is worth let alone the Feds. |
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kirra wrote: SINCERELY the bigest croc-o'brain-washing corporate horsecrap I've heard in a long time (gotta be good -may be worth mega$$$) this group (erik & paul) *stole* the name "Queen Creek Coalition" --they feel they have now a game on of Lord o'the Oak Flat Stakeholders....WRONG.. deesee's bull sheet where's this Licensing *DEAL* that these corporate-law jokers signed -~curious what *THEY* traded for it.. shhhh...As a nonprofit corporation, Queen Creek Coalition does not need to have, and does not have, Inc. in its name. The names and marks Queen Creek Coalition and the Queen Creek Coalition are the exclusive property of Queen Creek Coalition. No other person or entity has the right to use the name Queen Creek Coalition and doing so without the express permission of Queen Creek Coalition is unlawful. It is true that Queen Creek Coalition formerly was an unincorporated association of ten people. At the time we felt there was no need to create a formal entity. The minority of four who left the Queen Creek Coalition in 2010 and who later formed Concerned Climbers of Arizona, LLC did not take the name with them. They made quite a show of abandoning our group and its name and creating for themselves another identity, the Concerned Climbers. One of the four, Fred AmRhein, refused to turn over the groups domain names and Queen Creek Coalition had to sue to regain control of its own website. Freds attempt to exercise dominion over group property demonstrated that creation of a formal entity would be prudent. Queen Creek Coalition continues to exist and function as it had before the departure of the four dissenters; it merely adopted a formal structure and therefore has been a continuous entity operating under its original name. |
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Dief wrote: As a nonprofit corporation, Queen Creek Coalition does not need to have, and does not have, Inc. in its name. The names and marks Queen Creek Coalition and the Queen Creek Coalition are the exclusive property of Queen Creek Coalition. No other person or entity has the right to use the name Queen Creek Coalition and doing so without the express permission of Queen Creek Coalition is unlawful. It is true that Queen Creek Coalition formerly was an unincorporated association of ten people. At the time we felt there was no need to create a formal entity. The minority of four who left the Queen Creek Coalition in 2010 and who later formed Concerned Climbers of Arizona, LLC did not take the name with them. They made quite a show of abandoning our group and its name and creating for themselves another identity, the Concerned Climbers. One of the four, Fred AmRhein, refused to turn over the groups domain names and Queen Creek Coalition had to sue to regain control of its own website. Freds attempt to exercise dominion over group property demonstrated that creation of a formal entity would be prudent. Queen Creek Coalition continues to exist and function as it had before the departure of the four dissenters; it merely adopted a formal structure and therefore has been a continuous entity operating under its original name.Paul, I had always hoped that you, one of your group or under your group's control, or anybody else wouldn't drag out this sort of behind-the-scenes, small-ball political stuff into the mainstream posts and instead concentrated on the more important tasks of preserving the climbing environment and saving actual outdoor climbs, but alas, you have. Contrary to your statements:
From your own website notes of May 19, 2010: (see theqcc.org ) "Paul Diefenderfer moved that: The QCC's goal is to maximize climbing in the Queen Creek region and we seek to accomplish this by agreeing to a deal with RCM that includes access to Tamo and endorsement of the land exchange legislation. The motion was seconded by John Keedy." The practical effect of the phrase, "endorsement of the [current] land exchange legislation" was that the group would stop petitioning Congress for any changes or modifications to the legislation, ie., the coalition's voice had spoken and would speak no more. While I was vehement that this was unnecessary and an unwise course for the greater climbing community's interest, I was committed to continuing to participate as a voice of diversity but you in fact and action did reject my participation and expel that voice. I hope this helps straighten things out to some extent. Fred |
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wrote: "Paul Diefenderfer moved that: The QCC's goal is to maximize climbing in the Queen Creek region and we seek to accomplish this by agreeing to a deal with RCM that includes access to Tamo and endorsement of the land exchange legislation. The motion was seconded by John Keedy." The practical effect of the phrase, "endorsement of the [current] land exchange legislation" was that the group would stop petitioning Congress for any changes or modifications to the legislation, ie., the coalition's voice had spoken and would speak no more. While I was vehement that this was unnecessary and an unwise course for the greater climbing community's interest, I was committed to continuing to participate as a voice of diversity but you in fact and action did reject my participation and expel that voice. I hope this helps straighten things out. HEY PAUL I have more questions: (Though the questions posed above still have not been answered.) 1. 'Maximize climbing' sounds great, what exactly does it mean? How can you maximize the climbing we already have out there right now? Does this mean ensure that the mining method used will not create a huge hole in the ground? Please explain... 2. Once again, it makes me wonder will you be endorsing the current bill in favor of the mine? Please explain.... I know some of the public that reads these blogs and who don't post up want to know the details of the 'deal' the QCC,inc is making with the RCM/Rio Tinto Mine. Can you please tell the public what you are doing? |
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Lindajft wrote: HEY PAUL I have more questions: (Though the questions posed above still have not been answered.) 1. 'Maximize climbing' sounds great, what exactly does it mean? How can you maximize the climbing we already have out there right now? Does this mean ensure that the mining method used will not create a huge hole in the ground? Please explain... 2. Once again, it makes me wonder will you be endorsing the current bill in favor of the mine? Please explain.... I know some of the public that reads these blogs and who don't post up want to know the details of the 'deal' the QCC,inc is making with the RCM/Rio Tinto Mine. Can you please tell the public what you are doing?As long as we are asking questions, it would be great to hear from the CCA on on how they are going to protect access to the private land (The Pond, Atlantis, parts of the Mine Area and parts of Apache Leap) that many people climb on, irregardless of the land exchange. I see more climbers, and I would argue this, on the private land around Queen Creek than the land involved in the exchange. These private land crags draw a lot of traffic due to the quality and ease of access. |
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Fred AmRhein wrote: Climb and Mine, So, in your opinion, given your view of the data that the publication presents and the advances made in recent decades, would the cost per ton have gone down or up? Generally speaking of course.Cost per ton for most US mines has gone up to some degree, if not significantly, in the last 10+ years. Its called inflation. Fred AmRhein wrote: Lastly, it would be of general public interest on the Resolution design throughput if you'd care to share for discussion's sake? Thank you in advance, FredYou answered your own question a few posts ago: "Resolution has published data on tonnage rates/day in the past that others have used so that could give you a good place to start. (see savethesantacruzaquifer.inf… for instance )" |
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Ben Beard wrote: As long as we are asking questions, it would be great to hear from the CCA on on how they are going to protect access to the private land (The Pond, Atlantis, parts of the Mine Area and parts of Apache Leap) that many people climb on, irregardless of the land exchange. I see more climbers, and I would argue this, on the private land around Queen Creek than the land involved in the exchange. These private land crags draw a lot of traffic due to the quality and ease of access.BB~ I'm happy to answer your questions to the best of my ability. (Tho' I am only one member of our group) As a member of the Concerned Climbers of AZ, I will need to refer to our mission statement that we hold as our primary purpose in our group. "The Concerned Climbers of Arizona has been organized for the purpose of preserving climbing access and the climbing environment in Arizona. We advocate for continued recreational access to climbing areas that are threatened by development or other forms of encroachment." That being said, we as a group use our voice to state the obvious, RCM/Rio Tinto can mine with a method that will not destroy the land of Oak Flat and all surrounding areas. (Don't Sink the land!) I will continue to use my voice in this matter and feel it is important for us all to use our voice. I hope I addressed your question. You are always welcome to our meetings, Linda |
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Lindajft wrote: BB~ I'm happy to answer your questions to the best of my ability. (Tho' I am only one member of our group) As a member of the Concerned Climbers of AZ, I will need to refer to our mission statement that we hold as our primary purpose in our group. "The Concerned Climbers of Arizona has been organized for the purpose of preserving climbing access and the climbing environment in Arizona. We advocate for continued recreational access to climbing areas that are threatened by development or other forms of encroachment." That being said, we as a group use our voice to state the obvious, RCM/Rio Tinto can mine with a method that will not destroy the land of Oak Flat and all surrounding areas. (Don't Sink the land!) I will continue to use my voice in this matter and feel it is important for us all to use our voice. I hope I addressed your question. You are always welcome to our meetings, LindaThanks for the response. To get more specific on why I ask, my concern with the CCA approach is that their hard line approach could have devastating effects to future access to the private land (Queen Creek Canyon, portions of the Mine Area and Apache Leap). While the CCA position is clearer on the Oak Flats Parcel and nearby public lands, I fear that they have no future vision or plan on working with the private landowner to continue access to our crags. The issue of access to private lands also concerns me because the local climbers (and future local climbers) cannot simply go to a gym or choose a different destination as climbers from Phoenix and Tuscon can. |