Chances of rain on Friday enough to cancel a 3-day trip?

I'm planning on headed to the Creek tomorrow night, but am seeing an increasing chance of rain for Friday morning. I need to return home on Monday, so I'll only have 3ish days in Indian Creek.

Question for those of you who are desert and Creek vets: is a 35% chance of rain on Friday morning enough to require 3 days of no-climbing for the rock to dry? Is it enough for one to consider making other plans?

Cheers!

Dylan

I'd go. 35% means it probably won't rain. If it does rain, use the soil at the crag as a gauge. Pay attention to where it rains the hardest - it can vary a ton from Blue Gramma to Tenderloins to Critics Choice. Have fun!

Don't drive out unless you are fully committed to staying on the ground if it does rain. It's surprising how many people think that a long drive justifies climbing wet sandstone once they get there. Plenty of awesome ruins and petroglyphs to check out as well as a National Park!! Thanks for asking!

Aaron Livingston wrote: Don't drive out unless you are fully committed to staying on the ground if it does rain. 

100% agree.

dylan grabowski wrote:

100% agree.

Me too. Good point about not letting the drive justify climbing wet rock.

FWIW, I decided to cancel a similar trip based on the forecast. Fri and Sat we’re going to be my climbing days. Have to be back Sunday early enough that climbing that day isn’t possible.

So, the risk/reward wasn’t worth it for 14 hours in the car. 30% usually means scattered light showers, so friday might be fine, and Saturday will likely be ok.  But forecasts seem to be less accurate in recent years, and if it rains hard enough Friday to also ruin Sat, that would be a total waste of time/gas/etc.

You just have to decide how that risk/reward balance works for you. And pay attention to the info above about how to decide whether it’s ok to climb.