heading to the valley next week, weather looks bad

am i boned?

weather.com/weather/tenday/…

i also tried to go in early november last year but the weather didn't cooperate then either. how reasonable is it to think i might get to climb with this forecast?

It doesn't look too bad but sometimes the Valley weather is hard to read.

Might need to crag rather than do long routes, though.

hm, good point. maybe no long routes this trip.

NOAA is usually better in my experience: forecast.weather.gov/MapCli…

Doesn't look too good but you could get some cragging in.

yeah i'm getting in there sunday evening and i'll be staying at least through wednesday so i'm hoping it'll be better weather by then but currently it's just a big block of rain all through the time i'm going to be there. :(

You might want to think about coming up to Idyllwild if the weather doesn't improve in the Valley. It's getting to be prime season up here!

this place?

mountainproject.com/v/idyll…

Jon Ruland wrote:this place? mountainproject.com/v/idyll…

I think maybe he means these two places:
mountainproject.com/v/tahqu…

Ryan Strickland wrote:You might want to think about coming up to Idyllwild if the weather doesn't improve in the Valley. It's getting to be prime season up here!

I don't know. Looks pretty crummy in that neck of the woods as well.

forecast.weather.gov/MapCli…

Where is there any climbing to be had this weekend in California at all?

I think you are all overreacting to a pretty minor chance of rain. 20% chance of rain means 80% chance of sun. Around here we are very happy when we get a forecast that good. The slightly unstable forecast may mean that you don't want to get on anything too long or committing, but it is perfect for cragging. The clouds keep it from getting too hot.

Plus, it could clear up toward the end of the week. Just go to Yosemite; you'll find plenty of climbing to do.

JCM wrote:I think you are all overreacting to a pretty minor chance of rain. 20% chance of rain means 80% chance of sun. Around here we are very happy when we get a forecast that good. The slightly unstable forecast may mean that you don't want to get on anything too long or committing, but it is perfect for cragging. The clouds keep it from getting too hot. Plus, it could clear up toward the end of the week. Just go to Yosemite; you'll find plenty of climbing to do.

i'd love to get in some long routes but cragging works for me!

Yeah I meant Tahquitz and Suicide Rocks. Routes ranging up to 800 or 1000 feet long, plenty of moderates and harder testpieces to get on with no crowds. Great rock too. Small chances of rain almost never pan out.

Ryan Strickland wrote:Small chances of rain almost never pan out.

I know none of us are weather forecasters (or maybe we are), but "small chances of rain almost never pan out" doesn't necessarily make me want to jump in my car and drive 7 hours down south.

dylan grabowski wrote: I know none of us are weather forecasters (or maybe we are), but "small chances of rain almost never pan out" doesn't necessarily make me want to jump in my car and drive 7 hours down south.

I was responding to the OP, whose profile says he is from Tucson. Idyllwild is way closer to Tucson than Yosemite. Since you're from Oakland, I'd just go to Yosemite if I were you.

yep indeed i am from tucson, though i will be in yosemite no matter what as i'm meeting some friends there. if we can't climb then we will just hike (boo). i do have a friend in the LA area who's been trying to get me to come to tahquitz for a while so i may head down that way around mid week. it's not too far out of my way if i'm heading back to tucson.

Weather looks fine. If you're able to climb a bit harder, chapel wall usually is relatively dry compared to other areas.

dylan grabowski wrote: Where is there any climbing to be had this weekend in California at all?

IMHO.... almost all of the spots will be good.... hint: get east of the Sierra
or Kernville or Trona.

the wind will be a problem in some of the windier spots, pick a place not on a ridge, up in the mountains....

JCM has it right .... 20% chance of rain is 80% chance of no rain.

And to Ryan.... Tahquitz and Suicide do become very crowded.... the rockfall becomes pretty intense in the afternoon if your walking under some spots.

Jon, like Kevin said you'll be fine. I was between storms last week and the rock dried out overnight and as soon as the sun hits the rock it's fast. Barring run off but there are plenty of spots that will be climbable. Go expecting favorable weather you'll find plenty to climb.

SRB25 wrote:Jon, like Kevin said you'll be fine. I was between storms last week and the rock dried out overnight and as soon as the sun hits the rock it's fast. Barring run off but there are plenty of spots that will be climbable. Go expecting favorable weather you'll find plenty to climb.

yeah that's what i was wondering about, the rock drying between rain. here in sunny arizona it dries fast as hell but i didn't know what the valley was like. thanks.

Manure pile buttress, park line slab, arches, GP apron and many more areas dry quickly. Also you can check the web cams at yosemiteconservancy to see real time weather conditions. Have fun and be safe.

Guy Keesee wrote:JCM has it right .... 20% chance of rain is 80% chance of no rain.

I used to think this was true. One time (when I lived much closer) I even made the 4-hour drive to the Valley going on that thought process. In reality the probability doesn't work like that. The 20% chance forecast turned into a nonstop downpour for over 24 hours. Granted, that is particularly unusual out West. But the "percent chance" says little about how much or how long you'll get the rain.

Getting drenched in the Valley is a time honored tradition I'm pretty sure.