I'm in a conversation on Twitter with someone who believes that "most climbers die" if they keep climbing. He clarified in a later tweet (140 characters limits discussion!) that he was talking only about "serious pioneering climbers" and that he "can name as many high profile dead climbers as live ones."

Given those parameters, and assuming we're only talking about those "high profile" climbers who died as a direct result of a climbing accident or medical emergency (e.g. HAPE), what do others think of his assertion? Do most "high profile" climbers die while climbing?

One irony of the conversation was that he originally posted his theory in a message to Joe Simpson, who is, of course, alive.

This will be one of those fuzzy things that will be impossible to resolve because the definitions are inexact "Most"? "serious pioneering climbers"? "keep climbing"? "direct result"? Type of climbing - bouldering vs. 8K peaks?

And the thread will constantly get sidetracked my meaningless single data point examples.

I think you will be able to establish a correlation between the "serious" of the climber and the probability they will die as a "direct result". I don't think it means much. A serious golfer is probably more likely to die in a golfing accident (hit by ball or lightning) partly because they just spend more time being exposed.

But by almost any set of definitions I think you are going to have a hard time proving that "most" (>50%) do.

Most climbers usually get bored with climbing, which is a gateway drug to Russian roulette and extreme ironing. Death then follows quickly. So yes, I would say that is absolutely correct.

This type of discussion seems loaded from the start, as if to prove the point that a certain type of climbing is in essence suicidal.

xkcd.com/386/

The American Alpine Club, in its yearly compendium Accidents in North American Mountaineering, reported 15 fatalities in the United States in all of 2007. The highest tally in the last 57 years, in 1956, was 53. The yearly average was 25.

The British government, comparing the risks of various activities, assembled these statistics:

• Maternal death in pregnancy 1 in 8,200 maternities

• Surgical anesthesia 1 in 185,000 operations

• Hang-gliding 1 in 116,000 flights

• Scuba Diving 1 in 200,000 dives

• Rock climbing 1 in 320,000 climbs

• Canoeing 1 in 750,000 outings

• Fairground rides 1 in 834,000,000 rides

• Rail travel accidents 1 in 43,000,000 passenger journeys

• Aircraft accidents 1 in 125,000,000 passenger journeys

Let's be clear about this:

All climbers die, along with all other humans. It's going to happen, sooner or later.

Maybe they meant metaphorically. Like before marriage and kids. LOL!!

"... but NOT EVERY MAN TRULY LIVES!!!..." (in bad Scottish accent)

So if I use Daryl's info I'm cool if I keep my send total under 320,000, right?

"All that breathe, shall share this fate."

Tyler Durden says, "On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero."

I think most people that get into climbing are out of it within their first five or so years.

It's too committing to keep being fun,
Close call on an epic, coming to a realization of what acceptable risk is, or
Injury/death of themselves or friend.

There is probably somewhat a correlation with climbers as to avalanche and ski mountaineers.

To answer your question, I think there is risk inherent, but most don't die in climbing. I think we all come very close to it at some point in time, though.

Well, if you're talking about high-profile alpine climbers, which is what it sounds like he is limiting it to, I'd be inclined to agree that many of them do die. What is the death rate on Everest? Like 1 of every 3 people die on it. I guess that doesn't qualify as "MOST" but a significant number.

I'm totally open to new stats, if any of you guys have them. Those ones were from some books I read in the late 90s.

Still though, lots of prominent alpine climbers dying all the time. I can think of 2 recent ones that were reported in the last month from Alpinist.

Before I die from climbing, I think my balance in my saving account will :P, for all the gears and traveling.

"...in a conversation on Twitter..."
There's your problem.
LOL!

By the way, I thought his assumption of "most" was probably much too high. I was also amused that he kept adding qualifiers to his original statement that "most climbers die."

Indeed, though, if he didn't mean to qualify his assertion in any other way, I'd have to admit my belief that all climbers die, as do all other humans at some point.