Mountain Project Logo

Dirtbag existence vs. educated and employed

Bill Kirby · · Keene New York · Joined Jul 2012 · Points: 480
reboot wrote: I believe you...but again, those are the exceptions in your trade. You can be self-employed & replace a water heater. You don't need a shop. And you are not making $150K w/o employing a couple guys. He does just fine now, even better that he has a serious gf, college educated, probably pulling $200K working for "the man". He wasn't pulling that during the recession, like people in a lot of other professions.
Wow you are nit picking my words aren't you.. A small shop means a small business. It doesn't mean an actual building. Ever heard the words " open up shop"? I ran 15 guys from my house and two12x20 self storage units so no you don't need a shop. It sounds like Eliots buddy employs one helper. Oh.. I'm in concrete, directional drilling and real estate. I'm not a plumber but I play one on TV.

College education makes everything all better.. What's wrong with for somebody?
reboot · · . · Joined Jul 2006 · Points: 125
Bill Kirby wrote:I ran 15 guys from my house and two12x20 self storage units...
That's exactly what I mean. You are the exception in your trade... you can't expect your 15 guys, even if they work as hard as you, would all end up in your situation. Why don't you tell us how well off your 15 guys are? That'd be a lot more realistic.
Eli Buzzell · · noco · Joined Nov 2010 · Points: 5,506
Greg Petliski wrote: People need something to talk about.
You're right, I just realized that this topic is the pseudo-philosophical climbing related alternative to talking about the weather by a water cooler.
Bill Kirby · · Keene New York · Joined Jul 2012 · Points: 480
reboot wrote: That's exactly what I mean. You are the exception in your trade... you can't expect your 15 guys, even if they work as hard as you, would all end up in your situation. Why don't you tell us how well off your 15 guys are? That'd be a lot more realistic.
I'm sorry if I wrote something that made you think I mean everyone can make 150k clearing drains or fixing AC units. To end up like me one would have to be able to sell, be able to manage and have a shit ton of luck. Plus work ethic, intelligence, physical strength, drive and all that bullshit helps too.

My 15 guys aren't doing too bad. They make between $15/hr and $30/hr. The lowest made $37k and the highest made 66k with 15k bonuses. The two foreman have company trucks. The Latinos are doing the best as they are smart with their money. The young ones are the worst. It's to due with $100 jeans and going out too much not the monetary limitations of the job.

So my guys do just as well as if they went to college and got themselves an office job.
Jim Fox · · Westminster, CO · Joined Jun 2014 · Points: 50
college.usatoday.com/2014/1…

That said, I know plenty of college grads with degrees in things like Communications, Anthropology and Business that ended up waiting tables to pay off their sizable student loans.
Alan Doak · · boulder, co · Joined Oct 2007 · Points: 120
Tony B wrote: ... it is also noted that the cost of living IS increasing, but it is BELOW the government's targeted desired rate of increase. Think that over for just a moment. Why do we want/need inflation? Who does it benefit and how? The Federal reserve wants MORE inflation... and say what we have is not enough.
Off topic, but you started this Tony: stable 0% inflation is really hard to achieve in practice due to asymmetry. It's straightforward to put the brakes on an overheated economy by increasing interest rates, or boost demand by reducing interest rates. But interest rates can't go below 0%, so you run into a barrier where conventional monetary policy can't respond. Also, internal devaluation with a fixed currency (in order to restore trade competitiveness) is difficult to achieve due to the downward stickiness of wages.

A modest positive inflation target allows conventional monetary policy to respond in both directions, and for regions within a currency union to more easily restore competitiveness, and it's priced into expectations through the rate of returns on risk-free investments.

Average worker wages have indeed not kept up, despite increasing worker productivity, due in large part to an increasing share going to the execs and financiers. But, that's a labor and regulatory issue, not within the Fed's domain.
Tony B · · Around Boulder, CO · Joined Jan 2001 · Points: 24,665

That may be your narrative, Alan, and the Fed's in some circles.
But have you considered how inflation devalues both Savings AND Debt? And which it is that the government holds and WANTS us to hold (stated policy and the purpose of low rates).
Furthermore, anytime inflation exceeds the interest rate, the rate is effectively negative.

And that is precisely the point.

reboot · · . · Joined Jul 2006 · Points: 125
Tony B wrote:That may be your narrative, Alan, and the Fed's in some circles. But have you considered how inflation devalues both Savings AND Debt? And which it is that the government holds and WANTS us to hold (stated policy and the purpose of low rates). Furthermore, anytime inflation exceeds the interest rate, the rate is effectively negative. And that is precisely the point.
There's a difference between increasing inflation rate & a stable 2% inflation rate, the latter of which is what the fed wants to target. Long term CDs have always been above predicted inflation rate. Economists generally agree deflation is really really bad (why buy something today if it'll effectively be cheaper tomorrow?) So there are some incentives to target a low inflation rate to prevent deflation.
Tony B · · Around Boulder, CO · Joined Jan 2001 · Points: 24,665
reboot wrote: There's a difference between increasing inflation rate & a stable 2% inflation rate, the latter of which is what the fed wants to target. Long term CDs have always been above predicted inflation rate. Economists generally agree deflation is really really bad (why buy something today if it'll effectively be cheaper tomorrow?) So there are some incentives to target a low inflation rate to prevent deflation.
Obviously there is a difference, and yes, they want a stable 2%, and not anything lower. But only 5+ year CD's are above inflation, and just barely...

As for deflation being bad... Really? Are you so sure? Then what just happened in China? Well, their exports just got way cheaper for the rest of the world, for starters, since they massively deflated their currency. I guess we have the Ex-Im bank to effect that on taxpayer backs instead...

But inflation... like I said, it depends on if you OWE or OWN debt. It is great for the payers (US).
reboot · · . · Joined Jul 2006 · Points: 125
Tony B wrote: As for deflation being bad... Really? Are you so sure? Then what just happened in China? Well, their exports just got way cheaper for the rest of the world, for starters, since they massively deflated their currency.
Calling it "massively" is a bit sensational for now.. although the possibility of 25% yuan devaluation over a few years does have some people really worried of a global deflation (if all other countries follow suit & devalue their currency). And China was quick to reassure this is a one time adjustment (one time devaluation is sort of a like a one time price drop, it doesn't necessarily change long term behavior, but a continuing devaluation will).
Will S · · Joshua Tree · Joined Nov 2006 · Points: 1,061
Tony B wrote: As for deflation being bad... Really? Are you so sure?
Yes, I am 100% sure. If you can't grasp the reasons why, there is no sense in engaging in a discussion with you about the topic. This isn't controversial in the slightest. Maybe you need to step away from the Austrian Kool-Aid and Tea Party Goldbuggery and do some basic reading in macro economics. I'd suggest starting with Irving Fisher.
Alan Doak · · boulder, co · Joined Oct 2007 · Points: 120
Tony B wrote:That may be your narrative, Alan, and the Fed's in some circles. But have you considered how inflation devalues both Savings AND Debt? And which it is that the government holds and WANTS us to hold (stated policy and the purpose of low rates). Furthermore, anytime inflation exceeds the interest rate, the rate is effectively negative. And that is precisely the point.
Stable inflation doesn't devalue savings if it's reflected in the rate of return on risk-free investments (bank deposits, bonds, CD's, etc). And lenders (banks and bond-holders alike) certainly take into account expected inflation (and currency values) when determining the rates they demand.

And, sure, when inflation exceeds the interest rate then the effective interest rate can be negative, which incentivizes borrowing and consumption, which further raises inflation, which can lead to a bubble... which can be corrected by increasing the interest rate. The opposite isn't true when you're at the zero lower bound.

When you have your own currency, you can increase export competitiveness by devaluing your currency. But when you don't have your own currency (Euro, gold standard, dollar peg, etc) it's a lot harder to achieve internal devaluation through wage reductions and asset revaluations; just ask Greece.
Jonathan Cunha · · Bolinas, CA · Joined May 2014 · Points: 62

^The OP is wondering if he should be a full on dirt bag--not some half baked economist...can we maybe get the thread back on track? Not a chance right...

Tony B · · Around Boulder, CO · Joined Jan 2001 · Points: 24,665
Will S wrote: Yes, I am 100% sure. If you can't grasp the reasons why, there is no sense in engaging in a discussion with you about the topic. This isn't controversial in the slightest. Maybe you need to step away from the Austrian Kool-Aid and Tea Party Goldbuggery and do some basic reading in macro economics. I'd suggest starting with Irving Fisher.
Well, you've established that this is a religeon for you. And with that, no interest on my part in re-studying only 1/2 of the economics I have already studied. When your horizons broaden, let me know.
Are you even aware of why some nations (including the USA) have historically revalued (devalued, overvalued, etc) their currency?
Tony B · · Around Boulder, CO · Joined Jan 2001 · Points: 24,665
reboot wrote: Calling it "massively" is a bit sensational for now.. although the possibility of 25% yuan devaluation over a few years does have some people really worried of a global deflation (if all other countries follow suit & devalue their currency). And China was quick to reassure this is a one time adjustment (one time devaluation is sort of a like a one time price drop, it doesn't necessarily change long term behavior, but a continuing devaluation will).
It is massive if it has the whole world talking.
So you do acknowledge that inflation and deflation are tools used at different times for different reasons - at least that is reasonable. there are others here less reasonable, probably that don't even know/understand what did just happen or why!
Tony B · · Around Boulder, CO · Joined Jan 2001 · Points: 24,665
doak wrote: And, sure, when inflation exceeds the interest rate then the effective interest rate can be negative, which incentivizes borrowing and consumption, which further raises inflation, which can lead to a bubble... which can be corrected by increasing the interest rate. The opposite isn't true when you're at the zero lower bound. When you have your own currency, you can increase export competitiveness by devaluing your currency.
Seriously - Alan, come on. What lead to the POP in the Bubble in 2008?
A raise in the interest rate - which is that "correction."
So, on that whole "how we got here" thing...

We are not Greece yet, or anywhere near that, of course. And the difference that our debt raters think that is the key is that the US Government has always been willing to raise revenues when cornered. But presently, they relay on deflating the debt in large part.
I don't make this shit up, Greenspan, Bernanke, and Yellen do. I'm just tell you what they say.
Will S · · Joshua Tree · Joined Nov 2006 · Points: 1,061

Give it a rest Bubb. You seemingly don't even understand that deflation and devaluation are not the same thing.

Tony B · · Around Boulder, CO · Joined Jan 2001 · Points: 24,665
Will S wrote:Give it a rest Bubb. You seemingly don't even understand that deflation and devaluation are not the same thing.
Actually, I do. I think you fail to comprehend my point. Shumin got it, Alan touched on it... But I've read your posts before and I am not shocked.
I know I know, anyone who isn't a leftist is tea party in your book and defacto crazy...
Whatever, dude.

Generally when someone says that there is "no debate" or something is 100% settled, that means that there is a huge debate and that the issue is far from settled. And either they know it, or they are a patsy.
If you sit at the table for 30 minutes and you are still wandering who is the mark, you are the mark.
Mark E Dixon · · Possunt, nec posse videntur · Joined Nov 2007 · Points: 974
Jonathan Cunha wrote:^The OP is wondering if he should be a full on dirt bag--not some half baked economist...can we maybe get the thread back on track? Not a chance right...
Pretty strong evidence he shouldn't become an economist.

Can one of you guys correct me if necessary, but doesn't devaluing ones currency typically lead to inflation?

Also, I thought China had been intervening to keep the yuan high and the market caused the 2% devaluation once China tolerated it.
reboot · · . · Joined Jul 2006 · Points: 125
Tony B wrote: It is massive if it has the whole world talking. So you do acknowledge that inflation and deflation are tools used at different times for different reasons - at least that is reasonable.
It's massive in the perceived intent, not the actual amount. Still, I don't know any sane economist would use deflation as a tool, deinflation (reduction of inflation, not having negative inflation rate) perhaps. The last time US had a real deflation was during the great depression. We've had some minor ones since, mostly tied to oil prices.
Guideline #1: Don't be a jerk.

General Climbing
Post a Reply to "Dirtbag existence vs. educated and employed"

Log In to Reply

Join the Community

Create your FREE account today!
Already have an account? Login to close this notice.

Get Started.