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Is 5.16a possible?

JCM · · Unknown Hometown · Joined Jun 2008 · Points: 115
Guy Keesee wrote:5.16 is a YDS grade.... I am sure someday someone will pull it off... It's difficult to match the French system vs the YDS... YDS filters out all the subjective BS, like how tired you are... The YDS is the hardest "move" .... ONLY.
Your statements may have been true in 1960, or whenever you started climbing, but the YDS has evolved since then, even if you have not. See this thread for details:

mountainproject.com/v/what-…
Sam Berg · · Wyoming · Joined Sep 2013 · Points: 25

With climbers becoming stronger it gets increasingly hard to find routes that are in that small window at the outer limit of human capability without being impossible

JCM · · Unknown Hometown · Joined Jun 2008 · Points: 115
Sam Berg wrote:With climbers becoming stronger it gets increasingly hard to find routes that are in that small window at the outer limit of human capability without being impossible
Of course, a bit of chipping would allow the creation of routes at exactly that difficulty level. See Bill Ramsey's manifesto on the topic: rockandice.com/lates-news/m…

Just stirring the pot.
Tits McGee · · Boulder, CO · Joined Apr 2008 · Points: 260

You can bolt anything.

Kristoffer Schmarr · · Boulder, CO · Joined Feb 2008 · Points: 838

Red, yes I think you have those stories crossed.
Ondra went and climbed Chilam so I think he should pay a visit to Akira (he certainly has no qualms about climbing ugly routes). Just to confirm or deny the grade for posterity's sake.
Sharma gets credit for his ascents because he's marketable and the climbing community likes him. Fred and Bernabe weren't in such good standing. That's how American climbing media has always spun the stories at least. Maybe they get more respect in Europe. Dunno.
One thing that struck me as odd is that Ondra himself said of his new .15c that it's a 25' V14. I think The Fly is a 25' V14 and it's only .14d. Wheel of Life is much longer and .15a/V15... Am I missing something here?

pfwein Weinberg · · Boulder, CO · Joined May 2006 · Points: 71
JCM wrote: A corollary is the mile run. It is easy to imagine what a 3-minute mile would entail...just run faster for 3 minutes. If Usain Bolt could keep up his 100 meter pace for a mile, that record would be be under 3 minutes. However, most runners would postulate that this record will not be achieved by what we currently see as the human species. The same sort of limit must exist in climbing...but where is it? 5.16a will probably be done within a decade or two; the limit is likely higher than that, but how much higher? Can a human ever do a 5.16c? 5.17a?
There's an interesting difference between climbing grades and the time to run a mile (or any objectively measured event such as track and field or weightlifting).
It's not really possible to describe how much harder one climb has to be than another to justify a new rating, so top climbers may just assign new, higher ratings to virtually every new route that's arguably harder than the existing routes of the top grade, even if the difference is slight from an objective point of view (the holds being ever so slightly smaller, or spaced or longer or whatever).
Lots of people think that's already happening, and has been for some time.

I do believe that if you consider an area with old-school (i.e., hard) ratings such as Joshua Tree, and make there be a chunk of difficulty between each new top-level rating that is similar to the difficulty gap between the lower ratings, not only would you not have 16a, but you probably wouldn't have 15a either. Just my arm-chair theorists opinion--I'm not speaking about high-level grades from personal experience!
Forthright · · Unknown Hometown · Joined Oct 2011 · Points: 110

I'm just waiting for 5.15 slab :P

rging · · Salt Lake City, Ut · Joined Jul 2011 · Points: 210
Ryan Williams wrote:...The French system not only takes into account the hardest move, but also how many of them there are, how many other hard moves there are, how they link together, if there are any rests in between, etc...
What we need to really advance climbing is an accredited degree the equivalent of a PhD in physics, a masters in statistics, and the asymptote thingy that Christopher mentioned.If we could do that then I know it would legitimize all of us.
Richard M. Wright · · Lakewood, CO · Joined Jan 2001 · Points: 9,090

As we all know, a four minute mile is impossible.

amarius · · Nowhere, OK · Joined Feb 2012 · Points: 20
Richard M. Wright wrote:As we all know, a four minute mile is impossible.
Funny comment, that
Of course 4min mile is possible, but you knew that already - the current record for men stands at 3:43.13. Women's is at 4:12.56.
It is more interesting to look at the
Wikipedia's Mile run world record progression
Tyler Newcomb · · New York, New York | Boston · Joined Dec 2012 · Points: 81

What I don't understand is how newer climbers are better than past climbers. Ther is no way climbers have revolved in 100 years or less, and anyways, climbing isn't something humans would evolve for, since it doesn't exactly help with survival. Is it better training? Advancements in chalk? Lighter, thinner ropes? I feel like the main question is; Can humans make technology more advanced make everything more efficient?

JCM · · Unknown Hometown · Joined Jun 2008 · Points: 115
Tyler Newcomb wrote:What I don't understand is how newer climbers are better than past climbers. Ther is no way climbers have revolved in 100 years or less, and anyways, climbing isn't something humans would evolve for, since it doesn't exactly help with survival. Is it better training? Advancements in chalk? Lighter, thinner ropes? I feel like the main question is; Can humans make technology more advanced make everything more efficient?
We aren't "better", necessarily, but we just have access to circumstances that allow us to more easily/safely climb steeper and blanker walls. If you cloned any famous/talented climber from back in the day (Gill, Robbins, Bacher, etc) and raised them in the modern setting, they would probably be climbing 5.14, due to drive and natural talent. Major factors are (in approximate order of importance):

1. Ropes and harnesses. Back in the day (hemp rope tied around the waist (rope could break), no worthwhile pro), leading was basically soloing. Hence, "The leader must never fall". How hard would you be willing to climb if every lead was a quasi-solo? For me, I feel like 5.8 might be the cutoff...which was about as high as standards got until ropes got more reliable. Nowadays, we are allowed to try hard and push limits, since the risk factor is way lower. Also, modern harnesses make falling a much safer and more comfortable proposition.

2. Modern protection. Easy to place, reliable protection (especially cams) have had a similar effect. Gear is more solid, allowing people to push their limits more. Also, modern plug-and-go gear is less physically tiring to place. If you had to lock off and hammer in a pin every time you wanted pro, you'd get pretty pumped.

3. Shoes and rubber. Duh. How hard would you climb in hiking boots?

4. Sport climbing. Safe and convenient climbing where people can push their limits. Allows people to progress through grades much more quickly, by allowing them to get in a great volume of climbing easily, and to repeatedly push themselves to failure in a safe manner. Grade progress is much slower when every lead is a serious proposition.

5. Gyms/training. Being able to get stronger (not weaker) over the winter is huge. Gyms also just allow more volume of climbing. You can live in a city and have a real job and still get really strong. Also, the gym setting helps get kids started at a young age, which really has created some talented climbers.

6. Modern tactics. Hangdogging, redpointing, etc. These "dubious means" have allowed people to free-climb much harder grades. They have also raised difficulty standards for traditional ground-up onsights as well, by making it easier for people to practice hard moves and learn how to climb hard (see "Sport Climbing"); these skills can then be applied even in a more traditional setting.

7. More crags. Different crags. Steeper crags. Many of my favorite places to climb...areas that have really pushed me forward as a climber...weren't even discovered until the 90s. If you look at really traddy old-school areas, like Tahquitz, you realize that it would be really hard to become a 5.12 climber if that was your main zone, since there just aren't that many potential routes of that grade to try there. Also, the discovery and development of just more climbs makes it easier to climb a lot...and thus get better. Steep crags like the Red and Rifle have allowed climbers to really improve their climbing fitness, while Indian Creek has allowed crack climbers to improve rapidly. None of these places had really been developed 30 years ago.

8. More climbers. Larger talent pool to discover genetic freaks. More partners to climb with, more people to learn from.

9. Lighter gear. This is probably pretty minor. A heavier rack might drag you back by a grade at most. Reliable and easy to place gear is a bigger factor.

But most importantly:

"Standing on the shoulders of giants": The earlier generations led the way for us. They found the crags, cleaned the routes, discovered new techniques, invented new gear, and showed us what is possible. A new climber can step into the sport today, and the way forward is shown for them. The earlier generations had to find their own way.
JCM · · Unknown Hometown · Joined Jun 2008 · Points: 115

Part 2: What will push the sport forward in the future? What will make 5.16a possible? How about the first 5.15 onsight?

1. More climbers; identifying the right genetic freaks.

2. Kids starting climbing younger. Kids starting actual training younger.

3. Better coaching, especially for kids.

4. Better and more scientific training. The regimes of climbers today, at even the top level, are pretty haphazard when compared to the carefully calculated regimes of those in olympic sports.

5. New/better/steeper/harder crags. The crags that have turned up lots of potential for 5.15s (Oliana, Santa Linya, Flatanger, and so on) were all developed pretty recently. Will the first 5.16 be done at one of these crags, or at a new super crag that has not yet been discovered?

6. Equipment? Better shoes, maybe? Ropes might get a bit lighter, but you can only go so thin. No one carries draws on hard redpoints, so that is irrelevant. Maybe some breakthrough providing stickier rubber? This category, in my opinion, won't make that big a difference.

7. Changes in perception of what is possible. This might be the most important.

Mark Paulson · · Raleigh, NC · Joined Sep 2010 · Points: 141

JCM is spot on. I don't think we've hit the limit yet (although maybe on certain climbs), but I think it's closer than ever. The recent grade explosion has been the result of the maturation of first generation of climbers that grew up in gyms, with access to pro-level coaching and proximity to the hardest outdoor routes. That's just never been possible until recently. Future progression will largely be the result of sifting an ever expanding pool of climbers through this system to find the freaks. We're seeing them now. Watch Jimmy Webb boulder. He's just not one of us.

I think as grades progress, more and more unrepeated routes will probably stay unrepeated, as the hardest of the hard routes will cater so specifically to the FA'er particular mutant gift. For example, Akira is probably impossible for anyone who is shorter than Fred Rouhling. The average height of the top 100 male climbers on 8a.nu is like 5'6". Who would repeat it? Add to that the crazy level of Ahabian devotion necessary to work these routes- the glory of a repeat is nothing to that of the motivation of the first ascent- and you might see a ceiling hit at some point. If a route doesn't get repeated, it can't get confirmed.

But these grades to me kind of lose meaning after a while. I might get up a 13 here or there if i'm lucky, and can at least comprehend the idea of 14's. However, a 5.16 would be the result of such an unbelievably unlikely pairing of perfect genetics with perfect cultivation in a rigorous training environment- it's an existence I can't and will never be able to relate to.

Tony Hawk · · Unknown Hometown · Joined Jul 2009 · Points: 0

"Ondra described Vasil Vasil as seven meters (23 feet) of "burly 8b" into a V14 boulder problem, with a single move that is "at least 8B (V13)."

So climb the 23 feet of "burly 8b"...then do the Fly. That is the difference. Even he says he could do the boulder problem section a while back, but couldn't do it after climbing the 8b section...until now I guess.

My guess he would climb all the 14's (and Jaws) at Rumney in a weekend.

JCM · · Unknown Hometown · Joined Jun 2008 · Points: 115
Mark Paulson wrote: But these grades to me kind of lose meaning after a while. I might get up a 13 here or there if i'm lucky, and can at least comprehend the idea of 14's. However, a 5.16 would be the result of such an unbelievably unlikely pairing of perfect genetics with perfect cultivation in a rigorous training environment- it's an existence I can't and will never be able to relate to.
I agree with this. 5.15b/c/d/e is just kind of an abstraction of "really really hard" to the vast majority (like 99.9%) of us. Same is true of V14/15/16/17. It is certainly neat to hear about advances in the sport, in sort of the same way that most people around here get psyched when the Broncos win, but it isn't all that meaningful personally.

There are, however, a few other ways that we have seen, and will continue to see, progression in the sport that seems, to me, more tangible. The first is an overall increase in standards among the "dedicated weekend warrior" crowd. There are quite a number of people in their 30s, 40s, and 50s who have respectable "real job" careers, and still climb 5.14. Some even have kids. This is amazing. It really wasn't that long ago that 5.14 was an elite realm achieved only by full-time climbing pros/bums. Nowadays, it seems attainable for anyone with a little bit of talent and a lot of dedication. I find this incredibly inspiring.

The other way that the sport is progressing, in a way that really blows my mind, is how hard free climbing is being exported to alpine environments. As cragging standards rise, there is a "trickle-up" effect where people bring that sport-crag strength to big alpine granite. People have been talking about this for decades, and it seems to be really happening now. This past sumer saw 5.14s go up on the Diamond and on Mt Hooker (super remote Wind River Range). 5.14 came close to happening in the Bugaboos this past season too. It is quite conceivable that Patagonia and the Trango glacier are next.
Jonathan Lee · · Unknown Hometown · Joined Oct 2012 · Points: 0

5.16 will NEVER happen, humans will never build a flying machine, there will never be a black president, the titanic will never be found, no man can eat 50 eggs!!!

Jonathan Lee · · Unknown Hometown · Joined Oct 2012 · Points: 0

Oh yeah, and recreational marijuana will never be legalized, at least not in our lifetime.

Tyler N · · Salt Lake City, UT · Joined Jul 2012 · Points: 155
Mark Paulson wrote:Future progression will largely be the result of sifting an ever expanding pool of climbers through this system to find the freaks. We're seeing them now. Watch Jimmy Webb boulder. He's just not one of us.
I really want to see Jimmy tie in and start working hard routes. I've never seen such seemingly effortless and infinite strength.
Nick Russell · · Bristol, UK · Joined Sep 2011 · Points: 2,605
NorCalNomad wrote:I'm just waiting for 5.15 slab :P
5.14d slab is established
ukclimbing.com/news/item.ph…
Guideline #1: Don't be a jerk.

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