Potrero Chico news...

"Now I'm thinking it's the same ol' Mexico(well same ol' Mexico post 2008), travel in the morning, use a low profile vehicle, don't leave Potrero or go into town at night and you'll more likely be fine"

and if you are not fine, you may be tortured to death, chopped up and thrown down a well. That is not something I particularly want to be thinking about while on vacation. Over 100k people have been killed. That is more than what is going on in Syria now. Sure, it is a larger country and over a little more time, but would you be heading off to Syria now if there was great climbing and cheap beer to be had?

Patrick Mcfadden wrote:Every us news paper has it as Hildago. And seems to me that that is the case. So what to do, I have tickets to San Antonio. The plan was to bus to hildago. The real question it it any more or less safe before this happened? Or just more aware. What are the chances of lightning striking twice. Think I will take a taxi to la pasada from Monterrey. It would be great to hear from folks there!

Get some travelers insurance. . .

It seems feasible they would mix the smaller lesser known town for the larger one. Taxi sounds good, maybe avoid the bus for now. Do the Posada's offer rides for a fee? I thought I heard that somewhere.

The more I look into it the more it seems to be Hidalgo (Potrero Chico), as a number of climbers say the Ranch where the musicians were kidnapped is near Homeros and recognizable in the pictures.

mountainproject.com/v/el-po…

I'm hearing that it was related to the musicians association with the drug trade from a friend living in Monterrey but that hasn't been verified.

I have a trip planned down there in 4 weeks but need to think real hard whether it's a good idea now. The level of cartel presence in Hidalgo is certainly concerning.

Mike Hulse wrote:The more I look into it the more it seems to be Hidalgo (Potrero Chico), as a number of climbers say the Ranch where the musicians were kidnapped is near Homeros and recognizable in the pictures. mountainproject.com/v/el-po… I'm hearing that it was related to the musicians association with the drug trade from a friend living in Monterrey but that hasn't been verified. I have a trip planned down there in 4 weeks but need to think real hard whether it's a good idea now. The level of cartel presence in Hidalgo is certainly concerning.

Yeah, looking like you're right. The TV news piece that is linked in that thread is obviously showing (Potrero) Hidalgo. Sad.

I think its true the Narcos don't care too much about the gringos, but that isn't necessarily a positive. Caught up in the cross fire I don't think they would care much about the fate of a few climbers one way or the other. What if the party hadn't been private and some climbers wanted to sample the local nightlife across the street? What if you met some friendly locals at the base of the route who invited you out to the bar later? What if you took the bus to Hidalgo? usatoday30.usatoday.com/new…
Keeping your wits about you and realizing you stand out in Mexico is a good thing. Plenty of great people down there though, its a sad situation. I actually thought they were friendliest in the north, but things are a lot worse than when I was there.

MURDER, DRUGS, CORRUPTION! CLIMBERS, STAY AWAY!!!

... so I don't have to deal with crowds at Potrero.

Seriously, 33k people died last year in the USA as a result of traffic accidents and are you still driving? You are statistically more likely to die driving to the crag than visiting Mexico.

Don't let fear-mongers keep you away, like they did a few years ago by adding Swine Flu to the list of reasons why not to go to Mexico. When this happens, it usually means it is a good time to visit (no crowds, good rates, etc.), and that is exactly what I did.

In other news the war on drugs is going great! :(

I'm not so sure of your statistical analyses there, Jeremy.

wankel7 wrote:In other news the war on drugs is going great! :(

Finally my loyal following of "The Wire" pays off.

youtube.com/watch?v=RXUqJC3…

Damn. I stand corrected on the location of all this. From the Mexican television news report, the bar is clearly outside of EPC and next to the climber's campgrounds.

All this hits close to home but I've still got to argue that with common sense this place is safe for a climber.

Its not like the narcos need the money from robbing a climber.

Common sense will keep you from getting mixed up with these folks.

the problem with common sense is that it assumes both parties have it ...

M Sprague wrote:I'm not so sure of your statistical analyses there, Jeremy.

Oh yeah? Why not?

Common sense vs. psychopaths

It is not like there are no good alternative areas, maybe a bit more expensive, but paying for a costlier plane ticket vs. that???

Maybe a good thread topic would be what some alternatives could be.

JeremyB wrote: Seriously, 33k people died last year in the USA as a result of traffic accidents and are you still driving? You are statistically more likely to die driving to the crag than visiting Mexico.

M Sprague wrote:I'm not so sure of your statistical analyses there, Jeremy.

The rate of people who die in car accidents each year in the U.S. is about 15 deaths per 100,000 people(assumes that everyone in the U.S. rides in cars). This is under the general homicide rate in Mexico (23.7 per 100,000), but well over the murder rate of Americans in Mexico (2.1 per 100,000). According to these stats, as an American it is safer to travel to Mexico than to remain in the U.S. (homicide rate of 4.8 per 100,000).

lonelyplanet.com/blog/2012/…

This is not to trivialize the violence in Mexico, it is a horrible plague for the Mexican people. It is just that, so far, this seems not to have translated to increased violence against Americans.

Edit to add: numbers are for 2011.

Murder rates: 4.8/100,000 people in the US and 22.7/100,000 people in Mexico in 2010.

unodc.org/documents/data-an…

Pretty sure automobile deaths are higher as well. There is a war of sorts going on in Mexico, even if you haven't seen it on your one trip to Potrero. No use in denying it exists.

Edit to add:
Nice stat Curtis, but like most stats it probably doesn't say much. There are quite a few American Mexicans who live in wealthier communities in Mexico City, and Americans living in gated retirement communities in Guadalajara. I think it is undeniable there is more overall violence in the north of Mexico right now than in the US. How that translates to travelers is pure speculation. The context of when and where it occurs is different in both countries. It would be wise to watch out while down there. Gringos are not somehow immune to it, and there are a lot of Mexicans who are not very happy with the US.

Is it safe to travel to Potrero? Maybe, but it is wise to have your wits about you. I would say the vast majority of people I met in Potrero had no experience traveling in Mexico outside of Potrero or with the sorts of situations that could get them into trouble in Mexico.

JeremyB wrote: Oh yeah? Why not?

I am not a statistician, but to start, you compare going there to driving in the USA. Driving is not a luxury as much as going to Mexico to climb. Mexico has almost twice as many traffic deaths per 100k (not as bad as Eretria) so if you were getting into the minutia, you would have to add your chance of dying in a car crash while there.
More relevant is the raw murder rate, which I think is about 4 and a half times greater in Mexico than the USA. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_…
Looking at this map upload.wikimedia.org/wikipe…
It looks like Chihuahua has a higher rate of conflict than other parts of Mexico cnsnews.com/news/article/on… 67 for every 100,000 inhabitants, almost 14 times the US.
Interestingly enough, going to the Caribbean to lie on a beach and smoke a doobe is not much better. Jamaica’s homicide rate is 52.2/100k. Cayman is only 8.2.

pat vernon wrote:Nice stat Curtis, but like most stats it probably doesn't say much. There are quite a few American Mexicans who live in wealthier communities in Mexico City, and Americans living in gated retirement communities in Guadalajara. I think it is undeniable there is more overall violence in the north of Mexico right now than in the US.

I couldn't resist once people started debating the stats of the matter. As you could read above, I was not trying to claim that the violence wasn't real. I just think that it's worth noting the huge difference in murder rates between Americans in Mexico and Mexicans in Mexico.

With that said, this is obviously good advice:

pat vernon wrote:How that translates to travelers is pure speculation. The context of when and where it occurs is different in both countries. It would be wise to watch out while down there. Gringos are not somehow immune to it, and there are a lot of Mexicans who are not very happy with the US.

Found this video showing the bar at the Potrero with police tape and authorities investigating, so I think the Rock and Ice article does have it right.

Fair enough Curtis, stats are always interesting. Potrero is interesting, I can't think of another town or city in northern Mexico where well to do gringos flock to. It's an anomaly. I don't think this happening made the area any more or less dangerous, it is just kind of a wake-up call, norther Mexico is often compared to a war zone and not everyone likes us there. It is wise to watch out. You don't need stats to back that up JeremyB.

I think it interesting to read the one comment under the video posted above, its a common sentiment:

Ahora mientras los Gringos sigan necesitando la droga para mantener su sociedad corrupta y degenerada, jamás habrá Paz en nuestros paises puesto que siempre habrá alguien dispuesto a matar para mantener el Vicio de los Malditos Gringos.

While the Gringos continue needing their drugs to keep their corrupt degenerate society running, there will never be peace in our countries as long as there is always someone ready to kill in order to supply the vices of the damn gringos.